El jueves 18 de septiembre de 2014 se celebró un referéndum sobre la independencia de Escocia del Reino Unido. [1] La pregunta del referéndum fue: "¿Debería Escocia ser un país independiente?", A la que los votantes respondieron con "Sí" o "No". [2] El lado "No" ganó con 2.001.926 (55,3%) votando en contra de la independencia y 1.617.989 (44,7%) votando a favor. La participación del 84,6% fue la más alta registrada para una elección o referéndum en el Reino Unido desde las elecciones generales de enero de 1910 , que se celebraron antes de la introducción del sufragio universal .
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¿Debería Escocia ser un país independiente? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Localización | Escocia | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Salir | Escocia rechaza la independencia y sigue siendo un país constituyente del Reino Unido | |||||||||||||||||||||
Resultados | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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Resultados por áreas del consejo | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Nota: la saturación de color denota fuerza de voto |
La Ley del Referéndum de la Independencia de Escocia de 2013 estableció las disposiciones para el referéndum y fue aprobada por el Parlamento escocés en noviembre de 2013, tras un acuerdo entre el gobierno escocés descentralizado y el Gobierno del Reino Unido. La propuesta de independencia requería una mayoría simple para ser aprobada. Todos los ciudadanos de la Unión Europea (UE) o de la Commonwealth que residen en Escocia de 16 años o más pueden votar, con algunas excepciones, lo que produjo un electorado total de casi 4.300.000 personas. Esta fue la primera vez que el sufragio electoral se amplió para incluir a jóvenes de 16 y 17 años en Escocia.
Yes Scotland fue el principal grupo de campaña por la independencia, mientras que Better Together fue el principal grupo de campaña a favor de mantener la unión. También participaron muchos otros grupos de campaña , partidos políticos, empresas, periódicos y personas destacadas. Los temas destacados que se plantearon durante el referéndum incluyeron qué moneda usaría una Escocia independiente, el gasto público, la pertenencia a la UE y el petróleo del Mar del Norte . Una encuesta a boca de urna reveló que la retención de la libra esterlina fue el factor decisivo para quienes votaron por el No, mientras que el "descontento con la política de Westminster" fue el factor decisivo para quienes votaron por el Sí. [3]
Historia
Formación del Reino Unido
El Reino de Escocia y el Reino de Inglaterra se establecieron como países independientes durante la Edad Media . Después de librar una serie de guerras durante el siglo XIV, las dos monarquías entraron en una unión personal en 1603 (la Unión de las Coronas ) cuando Jacobo VI de Escocia también se convirtió en Jacobo I de Inglaterra. Las dos naciones se unieron temporalmente bajo un solo gobierno cuando Oliver Cromwell fue declarado Lord Protector de una Commonwealth en 1653, pero este se disolvió cuando se restauró la monarquía en 1660. Escocia e Inglaterra se unieron para formar el Reino de Gran Bretaña en 1707. Factores en favor de la unión fueron, por parte escocesa, los problemas económicos causados por el fracaso del esquema de Darién y, por parte de los ingleses, asegurar la línea de sucesión de Hannover . Gran Bretaña a su vez se unió al Reino de Irlanda en 1801, formando el Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña e Irlanda . La mayor parte de Irlanda abandonó la Unión en 1922 para formar el Estado Libre de Irlanda ; en consecuencia, el nombre completo del Reino Unido desde 1927 es Reino Unido de Gran Bretaña e Irlanda del Norte .
Devolución
El Partido Laborista estaba comprometido con la autonomía de Escocia en la década de 1920, pero se deslizó hacia abajo en su agenda en los años siguientes. [4] El Partido Nacional Escocés (SNP) fue fundado en 1934, pero no logró un éxito electoral significativo hasta la década de 1960. [4] Un documento que pedía autonomía, el Pacto Escocés , fue firmado por 2.000.000 de personas (de una población de 5.000.000) a finales de la década de 1940. [4] El autogobierno, ahora conocido como devolución escocesa , no se convirtió en una propuesta seria hasta finales de la década de 1970 cuando el gobierno laborista de James Callaghan se vio sometido a la presión electoral del SNP. [4]
Una propuesta para una Asamblea escocesa descentralizada se sometió a referéndum en 1979 . Se emitió una estrecha mayoría de votos a favor de la devolución, pero esto no tuvo ningún efecto debido al requisito de que el número de votantes "Sí" debía superar el 40% del electorado total. [5]
No se propuso ninguna otra reforma constitucional hasta que los laboristas regresaron al poder con una aplastante victoria electoral en mayo de 1997 . Más tarde ese año se celebró un segundo referéndum escocés de devolución , como se prometió en el manifiesto electoral laborista. [6] Una clara mayoría expresó su apoyo tanto a un Parlamento escocés descentralizado (74,3% a favor) como a que el Parlamento tenga la facultad de variar el tipo básico del impuesto sobre la renta del Reino Unido (63,5% a favor). [6] La Ley de Escocia de 1998 estableció el nuevo Parlamento escocés, elegido por primera vez el 6 de mayo de 1999, [7] con poder para legislar sobre asuntos sin reservas dentro de Escocia.
2007 administración del SNP
El compromiso de celebrar un referéndum de independencia en 2010 fue parte del manifiesto electoral del SNP cuando impugnó las elecciones al Parlamento escocés de 2007 . [8] La prensa fue en gran medida hostil hacia el SNP, con un titular para The Scottish Sun en mayo de 2007 que decía, junto con una imagen de la soga de un verdugo, "Vote al SNP hoy y pondrá la cabeza de Escocia en la soga". [9] Como resultado de esa elección, el SNP se convirtió en el partido más grande en el Parlamento escocés y formó un gobierno minoritario encabezado por el Primer Ministro, Alex Salmond . [10]
La administración del SNP lanzó una ' Conversación Nacional ' como ejercicio de consulta en agosto de 2007, parte del cual incluía un proyecto de ley de referéndum, el Proyecto de Ley de Referéndum (Escocia) . [10] [11] Posteriormente , el 30 de noviembre de 2009 se publicó un libro blanco para el proyecto de ley de referéndum propuesto. [12] [13] En él se detallan 4 posibles escenarios, con el texto del proyecto de ley y el referéndum que se revelarán más adelante. [12] Los escenarios fueron: sin cambios; devolución según Calman Review ; mayor devolución; y plena independencia. [12] El gobierno escocés publicó una versión preliminar del proyecto de ley el 25 de febrero de 2010 para consulta pública; [14] [15] El futuro de Escocia: Borrador del referéndum (Escocia) El documento de consulta del proyecto de ley contenía un documento de consulta y una versión preliminar del proyecto de ley. [16] El documento de consulta estableció las papeletas de votación propuestas, la mecánica del referéndum propuesto y cómo se regularía el referéndum propuesto. [16] Se invitó a respuestas públicas. [17]
El proyecto de ley describía tres propuestas: la primera era la devolución total o "devolución máxima", que sugería que el Parlamento escocés debería ser responsable de "todas las leyes, impuestos y aranceles en Escocia", excepto "defensa y asuntos exteriores; regulación financiera, política monetaria". y la moneda ", que sería retenida por el gobierno del Reino Unido. [16] La segunda propuesta describía una reforma fiscal tipo Calman, obteniendo los poderes y responsabilidades adicionales de establecer una tasa escocesa de impuesto sobre la renta que podría variar hasta 10 peniques por libra en comparación con el resto del Reino Unido, estableciendo la tasa de timbre impuestos sobre la tierra y "otros impuestos menores", y la introducción de nuevos impuestos en Escocia con el acuerdo del Parlamento del Reino Unido y, finalmente, "poder limitado para pedir dinero prestado". [16] La tercera propuesta fue por la total independencia. [dieciséis]
En el 3er Parlamento escocés, solo 50 de los 129 MSP (47 SNP, 2 Verdes y Margo MacDonald ) apoyaron un referéndum. [18] [19] El gobierno escocés retiró el proyecto de ley en septiembre de 2010, después de no conseguir el apoyo de la oposición. [10] [20]
Administración del SNP 2011
El SNP reiteró su compromiso de celebrar un referéndum de independencia cuando publicó su manifiesto para las elecciones al Parlamento escocés de 2011 . [21] Días antes de las elecciones, Salmond declaró que la legislación para un referéndum se propondría en la "segunda mitad del parlamento", ya que primero quería asegurar más poderes para el Parlamento escocés a través del proyecto de ley de Escocia . [22] En las elecciones, el SNP obtuvo la mayoría absoluta. [23] [24] El primer ministro británico, David Cameron, felicitó a Salmond por su "enfática victoria", pero prometió que haría campaña a favor de la Unión si el SNP cumplía su promesa de celebrar un referéndum. [23]
En enero de 2012, el gobierno del Reino Unido ofreció legislar para otorgar al Parlamento escocés los poderes para celebrar un referéndum, siempre que fuera "justo, legal y decisivo". [24] Esto establecería "términos de referencia para el referéndum", como su (s) pregunta (s), la elegibilidad de los electores y qué organismo organizaría la votación. [25] Mientras el gobierno del Reino Unido trabajaba en los detalles legales, incluido el momento de la votación, Salmond anunció su intención de celebrar el referéndum en el otoño de 2014. [25] Las negociaciones continuaron entre los dos gobiernos hasta octubre de 2012, cuando se firmó el Acuerdo de Edimburgo. fue alcanzado. [10]
La Ley de 2013 Referéndum independencia escocesa (franquicia) fue aprobada por el Parlamento de Escocia el 27 de junio de 2013 y recibió la sanción real el 7 de agosto de 2013. [26] El 15 de noviembre de 2013, el gobierno escocés publicada el futuro de Escocia , un 670 páginas de papel blanco por el que se el caso de la independencia y los medios a través de los cuales Escocia podría convertirse en un país independiente. [27]
Administración
Fecha
El gobierno escocés anunció el 21 de marzo de 2013 que el referéndum se celebraría el jueves 18 de septiembre de 2014. [1] Algunos informes de los medios de comunicación mencionaron que 2014 sería el 700 aniversario de la batalla de Bannockburn [28] [29] y que Escocia también acogerá los Juegos de la Commonwealth de 2014 y la Ryder Cup de 2014 . [29] Salmond coincidió en que la presencia de estos hechos hizo de 2014 un "buen año para celebrar un referéndum". [30]
Elegibilidad para votar
Según los términos del proyecto de ley de 2010, las siguientes personas tenían derecho a votar en el referéndum: [16]
- Ciudadanos británicos que residían en Escocia;
- Ciudadanos de otros países de la Commonwealth que residían en Escocia;
- Ciudadanos de otros países de la Unión Europea que residían en Escocia;
- Miembros de la Cámara de los Lores que residían en Escocia;
- Personal de servicio / de la Corona que prestó servicio en el Reino Unido o en el extranjero en las Fuerzas Armadas Británicas o con el Gobierno de Su Majestad que estaban registrados para votar en Escocia.
Los presos condenados no pudieron votar en el referéndum. El Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos (TEDH) había dictaminado que esta restricción era ilegal, pero el juez escocés Lord Glennie dijo que creía que la sentencia del TEDH se aplicaría solo a las elecciones parlamentarias. [31] Las apelaciones contra su decisión fueron rechazadas por el Tribunal de Sesión de Edimburgo [32] y el Tribunal Supremo del Reino Unido . [33]
La edad normal para votar se redujo de 18 a 16 años para el referéndum, ya que era una política del Partido Nacional Escocés reducir la edad para votar en todas las elecciones en Escocia. [16] [34] [35] La medida fue apoyada por los laboristas, los demócratas liberales y los verdes escoceses. [36] [37]
En enero de 2012, la MSP laborista Elaine Murray dirigió un debate en el que argumentó que la franquicia debería extenderse a los escoceses que viven fuera de Escocia, incluidos los aproximadamente 800.000 que viven en otras partes del Reino Unido. [38] A esto se opuso el gobierno escocés, que argumentó que aumentaría enormemente la complejidad del referéndum y afirmó que había pruebas del Comité de Derechos Humanos de las Naciones Unidas de que otras naciones "podrían cuestionar la legitimidad de un referéndum si la franquicia no es territorial ". [38]
En la Cámara de los Lores, la baronesa Symons argumentó que el resto del Reino Unido debería poder votar sobre la independencia de Escocia porque afectaría a todo el país. Este argumento fue rechazado por el gobierno del Reino Unido, ya que el Abogado General de Escocia, Lord Wallace, dijo que "si Escocia debería o no abandonar el Reino Unido es un asunto de Escocia". [38] Wallace también señaló el hecho de que solo dos de los 11 referendos desde 1973 se habían realizado en todo el Reino Unido. [38] El profesor John Curtice citó el precedente del referéndum de soberanía de Irlanda del Norte de 1973 (el "sondeo fronterizo"), que permitió que sólo los residentes en una parte del Reino Unido votaran sobre su soberanía. [39]
Legalidad de un referéndum
Hubo un debate sobre si el Parlamento escocés tenía el poder de legislar para un referéndum relacionado con la cuestión de la independencia de Escocia, ya que la constitución es un asunto reservado al Parlamento del Reino Unido. [18] El gobierno escocés insistió en 2010 en que podría legislar para un referéndum, ya que sería un "referéndum consultivo sobre la ampliación de los poderes del Parlamento escocés", [17] cuyo resultado "no tendría ningún efecto legal en la Unión". . [16] : 17 Lord Wallace, Abogado General de Escocia, dijo en enero de 2012 que la celebración de un referéndum sobre la constitución estaría fuera del poder legislativo del Parlamento escocés [24] [40] y que los particulares podrían impugnar un referéndum del Parlamento escocés factura. [41]
Los dos gobiernos firmaron el Acuerdo de Edimburgo , que permitió la transferencia temporal de autoridad legal. Según el Acuerdo de Edimburgo, el gobierno del Reino Unido redactó una Orden en el Consejo que otorga al Parlamento escocés los poderes necesarios para celebrar, antes del 31 de diciembre de 2014, un referéndum de independencia. El proyecto de Orden fue aprobado por resoluciones de ambas Cámaras del Parlamento, y la Orden ("La Ley de Escocia de 1998 (Modificación del Anexo 5) Orden de 2013"), fue aprobada por la Reina Isabel II en una reunión del Consejo Privado el 12 de febrero de 2013 . [42] En virtud de las competencias transferidas temporalmente de Westminster bajo la orden de la sección 30, el Parlamento escocés aprobó el Referéndum independencia escocesa Ley de 2013 . [43] La ley fue aprobada por el Parlamento escocés el 14 de noviembre de 2013 y recibió la sanción real el 17 de diciembre de 2013. En virtud del artículo 36 de la ley, entró en vigor el día después de la sanción real.
Supervisión electoral
La Comisión Electoral fue la encargada de supervisar el referéndum, "con la excepción de la realización de la votación y el anuncio del resultado, y la entrega de subvenciones. En su función de regular la campaña y el gasto de campaña, la Comisión Electoral informará a la Parlamento escocés. (...) El escrutinio y el escrutinio serán gestionados de la misma forma que las elecciones [locales], por escrutadores locales (...) y dirigidos por un director de escrutinio ". [44]
Redacción de la pregunta del referéndum
El Acuerdo de Edimburgo establecía que la redacción de la pregunta sería decidida por el Parlamento escocés y revisada para su inteligibilidad por la Comisión Electoral. [44] El gobierno escocés declaró que su pregunta preferida era "¿Está de acuerdo en que Escocia debería ser un país independiente?" [45] La Comisión Electoral probó la pregunta propuesta junto con otras tres versiones posibles. [46] Su investigación encontró que el prefacio "¿Está de acuerdo?" Lo convirtió en una pregunta principal , que tendría más probabilidades de obtener una respuesta positiva. [45] La pregunta se modificó para "¿Debería Escocia ser un país independiente?", Que según la Comisión Electoral era la más neutral y concisa de las versiones probadas. [45] [46]
Estructuras de campaña
Costo y financiación
En el Anteproyecto de Ley de 2010, el gobierno escocés propuso que habría una organización de campaña designada para cada resultado, a los cuales se les permitiría gastar hasta £ 750,000 en su campaña y enviar un correo gratuito a cada hogar o votante en el franquicia del referéndum. No habría financiación pública para las campañas. A los partidos políticos registrados se les permitiría gastar 100.000 libras esterlinas. [16] Este límite propuesto para el gasto del partido se aumentó a £ 250 000 en 2012. [47]
En 2013 se aceptaron nuevas propuestas de la Comisión Electoral para el período regulado de 16 semanas que precede a la votación. Permitieron que las dos organizaciones de campaña designadas gastaran hasta £ 1,5 millones cada una y que los partidos en Escocia gastaran las siguientes cantidades: £ 1,344,000 (SNP); £ 834,000 (mano de obra); £ 396,000 (conservadores); 201.000 libras esterlinas (demócratas liberales); £ 150,000 (Verdes). [45] Un número ilimitado de otras organizaciones podría registrarse en la Comisión Electoral, pero su gasto se limitó a £ 150.000. [48] Los grupos que gastaran más de 250 000 libras esterlinas debían presentar declaraciones auditadas a la Comisión antes del 18 de marzo de 2015. [49]
Según el documento de consulta del gobierno escocés publicado el 25 de febrero de 2010, el costo del referéndum era "probablemente de alrededor de 9,5 millones de libras esterlinas", gastadas principalmente en la realización de las elecciones y el recuento. Los costos también incluirían la publicación de un folleto de información neutral sobre el referéndum para cada hogar escocés, y un envío gratuito a cada hogar o votante en la encuesta para las organizaciones de campaña designadas. [16] En abril de 2013, el costo proyectado del referéndum era de £ 13,3 millones; [50] el costo administrativo final fue de £ 15,85 millones. [51]
Organizaciones de campaña
La campaña a favor de la independencia de Escocia, Yes Scotland , se lanzó el 25 de mayo de 2012. [52] Su director ejecutivo fue Blair Jenkins , [52] anteriormente Director de Radiodifusión en STV y Jefe de Noticias y Actualidad tanto en STV como en BBC. Escocia . La campaña fue apoyada por el SNP, [52] el Partido Verde Escocés (que también creó "su propia campaña a favor de la independencia para correr junto a Yes Scotland") [53] y el Partido Socialista Escocés .
En su lanzamiento, Salmond declaró que esperaba que un millón de personas en Escocia firmara una declaración de apoyo a la independencia. [54] El 22 de agosto de 2014, Yes Scotland anunció que se había superado el objetivo de un millón. [55]
La campaña a favor de que Escocia permanezca en el Reino Unido, Better Together , se lanzó el 25 de junio de 2012. [56] Fue dirigida por Alistair Darling , excanciller de Hacienda , y contó con el apoyo del Partido Conservador, el Partido Laborista y los Demócratas Liberales. . [56] [57]
Publicidad
La publicidad política en televisión y radio en el Reino Unido estaba prohibida por la Ley de Comunicaciones de 2003 , con la excepción de las transmisiones políticas de partidos permitidas . [58] Tres cadenas de cines importantes dejaron de mostrar anuncios de grupos de campaña de referéndum después de recibir comentarios negativos de sus clientes. [59]
Donaciones
En diciembre de 2013, la campaña Better Together declaró que había recibido donaciones de £ 2.800.000. [60] Los empresarios Ian Taylor y Donald Houston y el autor CJ Sansom hicieron contribuciones de seis cifras . [61] Casi 27.000 donaciones de menos de £ 7.500 se habían recibido en la misma fecha. [61] Una donación posterior provino del escritor JK Rowling , quien anunció en junio de 2014 que había donado £ 1,000,000 a la campaña Better Together. [60] [61] En el mes siguiente, el destilador de whisky William Grant & Sons anunció una donación de aproximadamente £ 100,000. [62] El 12 de agosto de 2014, Better Together anunció que había recaudado suficiente dinero para cubrir el gasto máximo permitido y que ya no aceptaba donaciones. [63] Esto se atribuyó en parte a una gran cantidad de pequeñas donaciones recibidas después del primer debate televisado entre el primer ministro Alex Salmond y el parlamentario laborista Alistair Darling . [63]
En mayo de 2014, la campaña Yes Scotland había declarado £ 4,500,000 en donaciones en efectivo. [60] [61] Los ganadores de la lotería de Euromillones , Chris y Colin Weir, dieron 3.500.000 £. [60] El administrador de fondos de inversión Angus Tulloch hizo una donación de seis cifras; aproximadamente 18.000 donaciones de menos de £ 7.500 se habían realizado en la misma fecha. [61]
Proceso de votacion
La votación para el referéndum comenzó el 27 de agosto de 2014, con la recepción de las papeletas por parte de los votantes por correo. Hasta el 15 de agosto, 680.235 votantes elegibles se habían registrado para votar por correo, un aumento del 20% en comparación con marzo de 2014. [64] Durante la fase de voto por correo, la policía de Escocia arrestó a un hombre de Glasgow bajo sospecha de vender su voto en eBay . [sesenta y cinco]
La fecha límite de registro para los votantes del referéndum era el 2 de septiembre de 2014. [64] Varios consejos informaron del procesamiento de un número "sin precedentes" de nuevos registros, mientras que otros recibieron "decenas de miles" de solicitudes en la última semana. [66]
Resultado de la votación
El Gobierno del Reino Unido declaró que, si una mayoría simple de los votos emitidos estuviera a favor de la independencia, "Escocia se convertiría en un país independiente tras un proceso de negociaciones". [67] [68] Si la mayoría estuviera en contra de la independencia, Escocia seguiría siendo parte del Reino Unido. [67] [68] Se delegarían más poderes al Parlamento escocés como resultado de la Ley de Escocia de 2012. [67] [68] La Comisión Electoral preparó un folleto informativo que confirmó que los gobiernos del Reino Unido y Escocia habían llegado a un acuerdo al respecto. puntos. [68] David Cameron dijo en mayo de 2014 que creía que el referéndum sería "irreversible y vinculante". [69] En la semana anterior al referéndum, ambas partes dijeron que respetarían el resultado. [70] Alex Salmond dijo que era un evento "único en una generación", citando el precedente de los dos referendos de devolución en 1979 y 1997 . [71] [72]
En caso de mayoría a favor del Sí, el Gobierno de Escocia había propuesto una fecha de independencia del 24 de marzo de 2016. [73] Se sugirió que, tras la conclusión de las negociaciones, el Parlamento del Reino Unido legislaría para que la independencia de Escocia tuviera lugar en la fecha que había sido negociado. [74] [75] Un informe de un comité de la Cámara de los Lores del Reino Unido, publicado en mayo de 2014, dijo que el Reino Unido podría optar por retrasar la fecha de la independencia. [76]
Asuntos
Agricultura
En 2013, como parte de un estado miembro de la Unión Europea (UE), los agricultores escoceses recibieron 583 millones de libras esterlinas en pagos de subsidios de la UE en el marco de la Política Agrícola Común (PAC). [77] Los pagos anuales de la PAC se realizan al Reino Unido, que luego determina cuánto asignar a cada una de las administraciones delegadas, incluida Escocia. [78] En el último acuerdo de la PAC, los agricultores del Reino Unido tenían derecho a pagos de convergencia adicionales porque los agricultores escoceses recibían un pago único medio por explotación por hectárea más bajo, principalmente debido al terreno montañoso de Escocia. [78] [79] Los partidarios de la independencia, por lo tanto, creían que una Escocia independiente recibiría mayores subsidios agrícolas como estado independiente. [78] Los opositores a la independencia creían que los agricultores escoceses se beneficiaban de la Unión porque el Reino Unido era uno de los estados miembros más grandes de la UE y, por lo tanto, tenía más voz en las negociaciones de la PAC. [78] También cuestionaron si una Escocia independiente recibiría inmediatamente los pagos completos de subvenciones de la UE, ya que los nuevos Estados miembros recientes habían recibido sus subvenciones gradualmente. [78]
Controles fronterizos e inmigración
En el momento del referéndum de independencia, el Reino Unido tenía algunas opciones para no participar en las políticas de la UE . Una fue la exclusión voluntaria del Área Schengen , lo que significa que hubo controles completos de pasaportes para los viajeros de otros países de la UE, excepto la República de Irlanda , que formaba parte de un Área Común de Viajes (CTA) con el Reino Unido. El gobierno escocés propuso que una Escocia independiente permanecería fuera del Área Schengen y permanecería dentro de la CTA, [80] [81] asegurando que no se necesitarían controles de pasaportes en la frontera anglo-escocesa . Nicola Sturgeon comentó que una Escocia independiente negociaría con la UE para tener los mismos acuerdos de visado que tiene el Reino Unido. [82]
Alistair Carmichael , Secretario de Estado de Escocia, dijo en enero de 2014 que tendría sentido que Escocia estuviera en la CTA, pero que tendría que aplicar políticas de inmigración similares a las del resto del Reino Unido. [81] Esta posición fue apoyada por la ministra del Interior, Theresa May , quien dijo en marzo de 2014 que deberían introducirse controles de pasaportes si Escocia adoptaba una política de inmigración más flexible. [81] El diputado conservador Richard Bacon dijo que no habría "razón" para que se implementen controles fronterizos. [83]
Cuidado de niños
En el libro blanco Scotland's Future , el gobierno escocés se comprometió a expandir la provisión de cuidado infantil en una Escocia independiente. [84] [85] El documento afirmaba que esta política costaría £ 700 millones, pero que se financiaría con un aumento de los ingresos fiscales de 100.000 mujeres adicionales que regresaran al trabajo. [84]
El líder laborista escocés Johann Lamont dijo que la política debería implementarse de inmediato si el gobierno escocés creía que tendría un efecto beneficioso, [84] pero Alex Salmond respondió que con la devolución los costos de la política deberían ser financiados por recortes en otras partes del sector público. gasto. [84] En marzo de 2014, la Asociación Nacional de Guarderías Diurnas dijo que el plan no podría implementarse a menos que las autoridades locales proporcionaran una mayor financiación a las guarderías privadas. [86] Un informe del Centro de Información del Parlamento de Escocia cuestionó el beneficio económico de la política, señalando que solo había 64.000 madres de niños de entre 1 y 5 años que estaban económicamente inactivos. [87] Un portavoz de Salmond dijo que el total estimado de 104.000 mujeres ingresarían a la fuerza laboral durante un período más largo, ya que las futuras generaciones de madres también podrían trabajar, y dijo: "El punto clave de la política es que no suceden en un día o un año y luego cesan ". [87]
Ciudadanía
El gobierno escocés propuso que todos los ciudadanos británicos que hubieran nacido en Escocia se convirtieran automáticamente en ciudadanos escoceses en la fecha de la independencia, independientemente de si vivían o no en Escocia. Los ciudadanos británicos "residentes habituales" en Escocia también se considerarían ciudadanos escoceses, incluso si ya tuvieran la ciudadanía de otro país. Toda persona que se considere automáticamente ciudadana escocesa podrá optar por no obtener la ciudadanía escocesa siempre que ya tenga la ciudadanía de otro país. [88] El gobierno escocés también propuso que cualquier persona con un padre o abuelo escocés podría solicitar el registro como ciudadano escocés, y cualquier ciudadano extranjero que viva legalmente en Escocia o que haya vivido en Escocia durante al menos 10 años en cualquier momento. tiempo y tenía una conexión continua con Escocia, debería poder solicitar la naturalización como ciudadano escocés. [88] La ministra del Interior del Reino Unido, Theresa May, dijo que las políticas futuras de un gobierno escocés independiente afectarían si a los ciudadanos escoceses se les permitiría conservar la ciudadanía británica. [89] Un documento de análisis publicado por el gobierno del Reino Unido en enero de 2014 declaró que era probable que los escoceses pudieran tener la doble ciudadanía; [90] sin embargo, la dualidad se consideró para todos los demás países, no específicamente para el resto del Reino Unido. La posibilidad de poseer una doble ciudadanía británica-escocesa podría estar sujeta a la "prueba de afinidad". [91]
Defensa
Presupuesto
El SNP dijo que hubo una infrautilización en defensa de "al menos £ 7,4 mil millones" entre 2002 y 2012 en Escocia y que la independencia permitiría al gobierno escocés corregir este desequilibrio. [92] En su libro blanco, el gobierno escocés planeó que una Escocia independiente tendría un total de 15.000 efectivos regulares y 5.000 de reserva en fuerzas terrestres, aéreas y marítimas para 2026. [93] En julio de 2013, el SNP propuso que habría un presupuesto militar anual de 2.500 millones de libras esterlinas en una Escocia independiente. [94] El Comité Selecto de Defensa de la Cámara de los Comunes dijo que el presupuesto de 2.500 millones de libras era demasiado bajo. [95] Andrew Murrison , ministro del Reino Unido para la Estrategia de Seguridad Internacional estuvo de acuerdo y dijo que era "risible" que el SNP sugiriera que podría crear una fuerza independiente "cortando salami" de las actuales unidades de las fuerzas armadas británicas. [96]
El comité de defensa de la Cámara de los Comunes también declaró que la independencia de Escocia tendría un efecto negativo en su industria, [97] mientras que el gobierno del Reino Unido dijo que no estaría dispuesto a construir buques de guerra en un país extranjero. [98] Geoff Searle, director del programa de Buques de Combate Global Tipo 26 de BAE Systems, dijo en junio de 2014 que la compañía no tenía un plan alternativo para la construcción naval, [99] pero esta posición fue revisada más tarde por el Presidente de BAE, quien declaró que podrían reanudar la construcción naval en la ciudad inglesa de Portsmouth si se establecía una Escocia independiente. [100] El director ejecutivo de Thales , uno de los proveedores de defensa más grandes de Gran Bretaña, dijo que si Escocia se independizaba, esto podría generar dudas sobre la inversión continua de su empresa. [101]
El Royal United Services Institute dijo en 2012 que una Escocia independiente podría establecer una Fuerza de Defensa Escocesa, comparable en tamaño y fuerza a las de otros pequeños estados europeos como Dinamarca, Noruega e Irlanda, a un costo anual de £ 1.8 mil millones. [102] Los autores reconocieron que una Escocia independiente "tendría que llegar a algún acuerdo con el resto del Reino Unido" sobre la recopilación de inteligencia, la guerra cibernética y la defensa cibernética, que el costo futuro de la compra y el mantenimiento del equipo de sus fuerzas podría ser mayor debido a pedidos más pequeños, y que el reclutamiento y la capacitación "pueden resultar problemáticos" en los primeros años. [102]
Dorcha Lee, ex coronel del ejército irlandés, dijo que Escocia podría evitar formar un ejército basado en recursos heredados del ejército británico y, en cambio, seguir un modelo irlandés de una fuerza de autodefensa limitada. [103]
Armas nucleares
En el momento de la consulta, el sistema de misiles nucleares Trident se basó en Coulport depósito de armas y la base naval de Faslane en el estuario del Clyde zona. El SNP se opuso a tener armas nucleares en territorio escocés, pero los líderes militares británicos dijeron que no había un sitio alternativo para los misiles. [104] [105] En abril de 2014, varios líderes militares británicos firmaron conjuntamente una carta declarando que obligar a Trident a abandonar las aguas escocesas pondría en peligro la disuasión nuclear del Reino Unido . [106] Nowhere to Go , un informe de la CND escocesa , concluyó que la remoción de Trident de Escocia forzaría el desarme nuclear unilateral por parte del Reino Unido, ya que las armas no tendrían una base alternativa viable. [107] Un informe del Royal United Services Institute dijo que la reubicación de Trident sería "muy difícil, pero no imposible" y estimó que tomaría unos 10 años y crearía un costo adicional de alrededor de £ 3 mil millones. [108]
Un seminario organizado por Carnegie Endowment for International Peace declaró que la Royal Navy tendría que considerar una variedad de alternativas, incluido el desarme. [109] Un informe en 2013 del grupo de expertos del Instituto de Escocia sugirió que un futuro gobierno escocés podría ser convencido de arrendar la base nuclear de Faslane al resto del Reino Unido, con el fin de mantener buenas relaciones diplomáticas y acelerar las negociaciones de entrada a la OTAN . [110]
Membresía de la OTAN
La política del SNP había establecido históricamente que una Escocia independiente no debería intentar obtener la membresía en la OTAN, hasta que esto se abandonó después de una votación de los miembros del partido en 2012. [111] Los MSP John Finnie y Jean Urquhart dimitieron del SNP por este cambio de política. [112] El Partido Verde Escocés y el Partido Socialista Escocés continuaron su oposición a la pertenencia a la OTAN. [113]
Willie Rennie , líder de los Demócratas Liberales Escoceses , criticaron la posición del SNP de que las armas nucleares Trident deberían ser retiradas de Escocia pero que debería ser miembro de la OTAN , [114] y Patrick Harvie , co-convocador del Partido Verde Escocés. [115] Alex Salmond dijo que sería "perfectamente factible" unirse a la OTAN manteniendo una postura antinuclear y que Escocia buscaría ser miembro de la OTAN solo "sujeto a un acuerdo de que Escocia no albergará armas nucleares y la OTAN sigue respetando el derecho de los miembros a participar únicamente en operaciones sancionadas por la ONU ". [116] En 2013, el profesor Malcolm Chalmers del Royal United Services Institute declaró que los "pragmáticos" del SNP aceptaban que la pertenencia a la OTAN probablemente implicaría un acuerdo de base a largo plazo, lo que permitiría al Reino Unido mantener a Trident en el Clyde. [117]
El exsecretario general de la OTAN y compañero laborista escocés Lord Robertson dijo en 2013 que "o el SNP acepta el papel nuclear central de la OTAN ... o rechaza el papel nuclear de la OTAN y se asegura de que un estado escocés separado permanezca fuera del mundo". alianza de defensa más exitosa ". [118] El general Richard Shirreff criticó las propuestas de defensa del SNP y cuestionó si otros miembros de la OTAN aceptarían una Escocia independiente que rechazara el principio de disuasión nuclear. [119] Esto fue cuestionado por Mariot Leslie , un ex representante permanente del Reino Unido ante la OTAN, quien declaró que la OTAN no querría interrumpir sus acuerdos excluyendo a Escocia. [120]
Inteligencia
Un documento del gobierno del Reino Unido sobre seguridad declaró que la Policía de Escocia perdería el acceso al aparato de inteligencia del Reino Unido, incluidos el MI5 , SIS y GCHQ . [121] El documento también dijo que un estado escocés independiente necesitaría construir una infraestructura de seguridad. [121] Theresa May comentó que una Escocia independiente tendría acceso a menos capacidad de seguridad, pero no necesariamente enfrentaría una amenaza reducida. [121] En 2013, Allan Burnett, exjefe de inteligencia de la Policía de Strathclyde y coordinador antiterrorista de Escocia hasta 2010, dijo que "una Escocia independiente enfrentaría menos amenazas, se crearían fácilmente instituciones de inteligencia y se crearían aliados siguen siendo aliados ". Peter Jackson, profesor de seguridad en la Universidad de Glasgow , estuvo de acuerdo en que la Brigada Especial podría formar un "núcleo adecuado" de un equivalente escocés del MI5 y que Escocia podría renunciar a crear un equivalente del MI6 , en lugar de "confiar en inteligencia conjunta o fuentes diplomáticas abiertas "como Canadá o los países nórdicos . [122] La baronesa Ramsay , una compañera laborista y ex oficial de casos del MI6, dijo que el punto de vista del gobierno escocés sobre inteligencia era "extremadamente ingenuo" y que "no iba a ser tan simple como ellos piensan". [122] Nicola Sturgeon declaró que Escocia crearía un servicio de seguridad como el MI5 para trabajar junto a la policía y hacer frente al terrorismo, los ciberataques y la delincuencia organizada grave. [123] También afirmó que la creación de una agencia de inteligencia externa seguiría siendo una opción. [123]
Democracia
El gobierno escocés y los defensores de la independencia dijeron que existía un déficit democrático en Escocia [124] porque el Reino Unido era un estado unitario que no tenía una constitución codificada. [125] El SNP también describió a la Cámara de los Lores no elegida como una "afrenta a la democracia". [126] La etiqueta de "déficit democrático" se ha utilizado a veces para referirse al período entre las elecciones generales del Reino Unido de 1979 y 1997, durante las cuales el Partido Laborista ocupó la mayoría de los escaños escoceses pero el Partido Conservador gobernó todo el Reino Unido. [127] Alex Salmond dijo en septiembre de 2013 que casos como este equivalían a una falta de democracia, y que "las personas que viven y trabajan en Escocia son las personas más propensas a tomar las decisiones correctas para Escocia". [128] [129] En enero de 2012, Patrick Harvie dijo: "Los verdes tienen una visión de una democracia más radical en Escocia, con niveles mucho mayores de discusión y toma de decisiones a nivel comunitario". [130] El gobierno escocés pretendía que una Escocia independiente tuviera una constitución escrita que "exprese nuestros valores, incorpore los derechos de nuestros ciudadanos y establezca claramente cómo nuestras instituciones estatales interactúan entre sí y sirven al pueblo". [131]
Menzies Campbell escribió en abril de 2014 que cualquier déficit democrático se había abordado mediante la creación del parlamento escocés descentralizado y que "Escocia y los escoceses han disfrutado de una influencia más allá de nuestro tamaño o expectativa razonable" dentro del gobierno británico y el sistema político en general. [132] El diputado conservador Daniel Kawczynski dijo en 2009 que la devolución asimétrica en el lugar en el Reino Unido ha creado un déficit democrático para Inglaterra. [133] Esto se conocía comúnmente como la cuestión de West Lothian , que citaba la anomalía en la que los parlamentarios ingleses no podían votar sobre asuntos transferidos a Escocia, pero los parlamentarios escoceses podían votar sobre los temas equivalentes en Inglaterra. Kawczynski también señaló que el número medio de votantes en una circunscripción parlamentaria era mayor en Inglaterra que en Escocia. [133]
Durante la campaña, cada uno de los tres principales partidos del Reino Unido llevó a cabo revisiones de la constitución del Reino Unido, y cada uno recomendó que se delegaran más poderes en el Parlamento escocés. [134] [135] En la mañana anterior a un debate televisado entre Alex Salmond y Alistair Darling, [136] Better Together publicó una declaración conjunta . Co-firmado por los tres principales líderes del partido del Reino Unido (David Cameron, Ed Miliband y Nick Clegg ), se comprometió a otorgar a Escocia un mayor poder sobre los impuestos internos y partes del sistema de seguridad social. [137] Boris Johnson , el alcalde conservador de Londres , dijo que se oponía a otorgar al Parlamento escocés mayores poderes fiscales. [138] Durante el segundo debate televisado, Salmond desafió a Darling a especificar qué poderes adicionales que podrían ayudar a crear un mayor empleo en Escocia se otorgarían si hubiera un voto "no". [139] Durante una visita a Escocia a finales de esa semana, David Cameron prometió más poderes "pronto". [139]
El 8 de septiembre, el ex primer ministro Gordon Brown sugirió un calendario para la implementación de poderes adicionales en caso de un voto "no". [140] Propuso que el trabajo sobre una nueva Ley de Escocia comenzaría inmediatamente después del referéndum, lo que dio lugar a la publicación de un libro blanco a finales de noviembre de 2014. [140] Dos días antes del referéndum, los tres principales líderes del partido del Reino Unido públicamente se comprometió a introducir "amplios poderes nuevos" según el calendario sugerido y que se continuaría con la fórmula de Barnett de financiación pública. [141]
Economía
Un tema principal en el referéndum fue la economía. [142] Weir Group , una de las mayores empresas privadas con sede en Escocia, encargó un estudio a Oxford Economics sobre los posibles efectos económicos de la independencia escocesa. [143] Encontró que Weir pagaría más impuesto de sociedades, a pesar de la propuesta del gobierno escocés de reducir la tasa del impuesto de sociedades, debido a que ya no podía compensar pérdidas en Escocia con beneficios en el resto del Reino Unido. [143] También afirmó que la independencia daría lugar a costos adicionales y complejidad en el funcionamiento de los planes de pensiones empresariales. [143] El informe encontró que el 70% de todas las exportaciones escocesas se venden al resto del Reino Unido, lo que dijo que afectaría particularmente al sector de servicios financieros. [143] Standard Life , una de las empresas más grandes del sector financiero escocés, dijo en febrero de 2014 que había comenzado a registrar empresas en Inglaterra en caso de que tuviera que trasladar algunas de sus operaciones allí. [144]
En febrero de 2014, el Financial Times señaló que el PIB per cápita de Escocia era mayor que el de Francia cuando se tenía en cuenta una participación geográfica del petróleo y el gas, y aún mayor que el de Italia cuando no lo era. [145] En abril de 2014, Escocia tenía una tasa de desempleo similar a la media del Reino Unido (6,6%) [146] y un déficit fiscal menor (incluido como porcentaje del PIB) [147] que el resto del Reino Unido. Escocia obtuvo mejores resultados que la media del Reino Unido en la obtención de nueva Inversión Extranjera Directa en 2012-2013 (medida por el número de proyectos), aunque no tan bien como Gales o Irlanda del Norte . [148] El crecimiento del PIB durante 2013 fue menor en Escocia que en el resto del Reino Unido, aunque esto se debió en parte a una disputa laboral en la refinería de Grangemouth . [149]
Deutsche Bank emitió un informe la semana anterior al referéndum en el que David Folkerts-Landau, el economista jefe del banco, concluyó: "Si bien puede parecer simple y sin costo para una nación salir de un sindicato de 300 años, nada podría estar más lejos de la verdad ". Folkerts-Landau afirmó que las perspectivas económicas después de un voto por el "sí" eran "incomprensibles" y citó la decisión de Winston Churchill sobre el patrón oro de 1925 y las acciones de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos que desencadenaron la Gran Depresión de la década de 1930, como errores de una situación similar. magnitud. La empresa suiza de servicios financieros UBS apoyó la posición de Deutsche Bank. [150]
Los partidarios de la independencia dijeron que Escocia no se había dado cuenta de todo su potencial económico porque estaba sujeta a la misma política económica que el resto del Reino Unido. [151] [152] En 2013, la Fundación Jimmy Reid publicó un informe que afirmaba que la política económica del Reino Unido se había "orientado abrumadoramente a ayudar a Londres, lo que significa que Escocia y otras regiones del Reino Unido sufren de que se les nieguen las políticas locales específicas que necesitan". [153] Más tarde, en enero de 2014, Colin Fox dijo que Escocia está "penalizada por un modelo económico sesgado hacia el sureste de Inglaterra". [151] En noviembre de 2013, Chic Brodie dijo que Escocia fue "privada" de beneficios económicos en la década de 1980 después de que el Ministerio de Defensa bloqueó la exploración petrolera en el oeste de Escocia, aparentemente para evitar interferencias con el arsenal de armas nucleares del Reino Unido. [154]
Sistema bancario
El Tesoro del Reino Unido emitió un informe el 20 de mayo de 2013 que decía que los sistemas bancarios de Escocia serían demasiado grandes para garantizar la compensación del depositante en caso de quiebra bancaria. [155] El informe indicó que los bancos escoceses tendrían activos por valor del 1.254% del PIB, que era más que Chipre e Islandia antes de la crisis financiera mundial de finales de la década de 2000. [155] Sugirió que los contribuyentes escoceses tendrían cada uno £ 65,000 de pasivos potenciales durante un hipotético rescate en Escocia, frente a £ 30,000 como parte del Reino Unido. [155] Los economistas, incluido Andrew Hughes Hallett, profesor de economía en la Universidad de St Andrews , rechazaron la idea de que Escocia tendría que suscribir estos pasivos por sí sola. Observó que los bancos que operan en más de un país pueden recibir un rescate conjunto de varios gobiernos. [156] De esta manera, Fortis Bank y Dexia Bank fueron rescatados colectivamente por Francia, Bélgica y los Países Bajos. [156] El Sistema de la Reserva Federal estadounidense prestó más de $ 1 billón a los bancos británicos, incluidos $ 446 mil millones al Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), porque tenían operaciones en los Estados Unidos. [156] [157]
Robert Peston informó en marzo de 2014 que RBS y Lloyds Banking Group podrían verse obligados a trasladar sus oficinas centrales de Edimburgo a Londres en caso de independencia de Escocia, debido a una ley europea introducida después del colapso del Bank of Credit and Commerce International en 1991 . [158] Grupos financieros como RBS, Lloyds , Clydesdale Bank , TSB y Tesco Bank anunciaron más tarde que planeaban trasladar su sede registrada de Escocia a Inglaterra en caso de que Escocia votara por la independencia, aunque la mayoría indicó que no tenían intención inmediata de hacerlo. transferir cualquier trabajo. [159] [160]
Divisa
Otro problema económico importante fue la moneda que utilizaría una Escocia independiente. [161] Las opciones principales eran establecer una moneda escocesa independiente, unirse al euro o retener la libra esterlina [161] (una forma de sustitución de moneda ). [162]
A lo largo de la década de 1990 y principios de la de 2000, la política del SNP fue que una Escocia independiente debería adoptar el euro, [163] aunque esto fue relegado a un objetivo a largo plazo en lugar de a corto plazo por la conferencia del partido de 2009. [164] [165] Hubo desacuerdo sobre si Escocia estaría obligada a unirse al euro si se convierte en un estado miembro de la UE por derecho propio. Todos los nuevos miembros deben comprometerse a unirse a la moneda única como requisito previo para ser miembro de la UE, pero primero deben ser parte del ERM II durante dos años. El gobierno escocés argumentó que se trataba de una exclusión de facto del euro, porque los estados miembros de la UE no están obligados a unirse al ERM II. [166] Por ejemplo, el pueblo de Suecia rechazó la adopción del euro en un referéndum de 2003 [167] y su gobierno posteriormente se negó a participar en el MTC II. [168]
The SNP favoured continued use of sterling in an independent Scotland through a formal currency union with the UK, with the Bank of England setting its interest rates and monetary policy and acting as its central bank.[169] The white paper Scotland's Future identified five key reasons that a currency union "would be in both Scotland and the UK's interests immediately post-independence": Scotland's main trading partner is the UK (⅔ of exports in 2011); "companies operating in Scotland and the UK [...have] complex cross-border supply chains"; there is high labour mobility; "on key measurements of an optimal currency area, the Scottish and UK economies score well"; and short-term economic trends in the UK and Scotland have "a relatively high degree of synchronicity".[93]
In June 2012, Alistair Darling said voters in the rest of the UK could choose not to be in a currency union with Scotland.[170][171] Former Prime Minister Sir John Major rejected the idea of a currency union, saying it would require the UK to underwrite Scottish debt.[172] Another former Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, said the SNP proposal would create a "colonial relationship" between Scotland and Westminster.[173] The then Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones, said in November 2013 that he would seek a veto on a currency union between Scotland and the rest of the UK.[174]
Yes Scotland said that a currency union would benefit both Scotland and the rest of the UK, as Scotland's exports would boost the balance of payments, and consequently strengthen the exchange rate of sterling.[175] Meanwhile, UK economists and financial experts stated that the effect on the balance of payments and the exchange rate would be "largely neutral".[176][177] Sterling fell by almost one cent against the US dollar in a day early in September 2014, due to an opinion poll showing a swing towards the Yes campaign.[178] The Financial Times reported a few days later that "Asset managers, investors and pension savers are moving billions of pounds out of Scotland" because of fears that Scotland would leave the UK.[179] The newspaper also reported that "'exit clauses' are being inserted into commercial property contracts in Scotland to allow buyers to scrap deals or renegotiate prices if voters opt for independence".[179]
The Scottish government stated that not having a currency union could cost businesses in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland £500 million in transaction charges when trading with an independent Scotland;[180][181] Plaid Cymru treasury spokesperson Jonathan Edwards commented that such costs were a "threat to Welsh business".[181] Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont said that any additional transaction costs would fall largely on Scottish companies, costing businesses in Scotland 11 times more than those in England.[182] The Institute of Directors stated that any new transaction costs would "pale in comparison to the financial danger of entering an unstable currency union."[182]
Banking experts said that being the "junior partner" in a currency arrangement could amount to "a loss of fiscal autonomy for Scotland" if policy constraints were imposed on the Scottish state.[183] Dr Angus Armstrong of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research wrote that the implicit constraints on its economic policy would be more restrictive than the explicit ones it faced as part of the UK.[184] Salmond said in February 2014 that an independent Scotland in a currency union would retain tax and spending powers.[185] Gavin McCrone, former chief economic adviser to the Scottish Office, stated that Scotland's retention of the pound would be pragmatic initially, but problematic thereafter if a Scottish government wished to implement independent policies, and he warned that keeping the pound could lead to the relocation of Scottish banks to London.[186]
The UK Chancellor George Osborne, as well as equivalent post-holders in the two other main UK political parties, rejected the idea of a formal currency union with an independent Scotland in February 2014.[187] Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls said the SNP's proposals for a currency union were "economically incoherent",[188] and that any currency option for an independent Scotland would be "less advantageous than what we have across the UK today".[189][190] After the three main UK political parties ruled out a formal currency union, the Adam Smith Institute said that the economies of Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador "demonstrate that the informal use of another country's currency can foster a healthy financial system and economy".[162] In September 2014, former European Commissioner Olli Rehn stated that an independent Scotland would be unable to meet EU membership requirements if it shared sterling informally, as it would not have an independent central bank.[191] Rehn's comment was disputed by Salmond, who restated his belief that a sterling currency union would be formed and pledged to create the necessary financial institutions.[191]
The Scottish Socialist Party favoured an independent Scottish currency, pegged to sterling in the short term.[192] The Scottish Green Party said that keeping sterling as "a short term transitional arrangement" should not be ruled out, but also said that the Scottish Government should "keep an open mind about moving towards an independent currency".[193] The Jimmy Reid Foundation, in early 2013, described retention of the pound as a good transitional arrangement, but recommended the eventual establishment of an independent Scottish currency to "insulate" Scotland from the UK's "economic instability".[194] Other proponents of an independent Scottish currency included Yes Scotland chairman Dennis Canavan and former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars.[195]
On 9 September 2014, Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said that a currency union between an independent Scotland and the remainder of the UK would be "incompatible with sovereignty". Carney further explained that cross-border ties on tax, spending and banking rules are a prerequisite: "You only have to look across the continent to look at what happens if you don't have those components in place ... You need tax, revenues and spending flowing across those borders to help equalise, to an extent, some of the inevitable differences [across the union]."[196] A spokesperson for the SNP's finance minister said that "successful independent countries such as France, Germany, Finland and Austria all share a currency – and they are in charge of 100% of their tax revenues, as an independent Scotland would be. At present under devolution, Scotland controls only 7% of our revenues."[196] Carney's comments received vocal support from Darling and the GMB trade union.[196]
Government revenues and expenditure
The Barnett formula, introduced in the late 1970s, had resulted in higher per-capita public spending in Scotland than England.[197] If an allocation of North Sea oil revenue based on geography was included, Scotland also produced more per capita tax revenue than the UK average in the years immediately preceding the referendum.[198][199] The Institute for Fiscal Studies reported in November 2012 that a geographic share of North Sea oil would more than cover the higher public spending, but warned that oil prices are volatile and that they are drawn from a finite resource.[199] The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland report for 2012/13 found that North Sea oil revenue had fallen by 41.5% and that Scotland's public spending deficit had increased from £4.6 billion to £8.6 billion.[200][201]
In May 2014, the UK government published an analysis identifying a "Union dividend" of £1,400 per year for each person in Scotland, mainly due to the higher level of public spending.[202] The Scottish government disputed this analysis, saying that each Scot would be £1,000 better off per year under independence by 2030.[202] Three economic experts said that both estimates were possible, but they depended on unknown variables such as the division of UK government debt, future North Sea oil revenues, possible spending commitments of an independent Scotland and future productivity gains.[203]
In its analysis, the UK government also estimated setup costs of £1.5 billion (1% of GDP) for establishing an independent state, or possibly £2.7 billion (180 public bodies costing £15 million each).[204][205] Patrick Dunleavy of the London School of Economics criticised the UK government's "ludicrous" use of his research in arriving at the latter figure.[205] The Treasury said that their main figure (£1.5 billion) was based on estimates by professor Robert Young of Western University.[206][207] Two of the main unionist parties in Scotland called on the SNP to publish their own estimate of the setup costs of an independent state,[205] but the Scottish government said that an estimate was not possible as the final bill would depend on negotiations with the rest of the UK.[208] Professor Dunleavy estimated immediate setup costs of £200 million in a report commissioned by the Sunday Post newspaper,[209] with "total transition costs" of between £600 million and £1,500 million in the first 10 years of independence.[210]
The credit rating that an independent Scotland would merit also became a subject of debate.[211][212] The credit-rating agency Fitch stated in 2012 that it could not give an opinion on what rating Scotland would have, because Scottish finances would largely depend on the result of negotiations between the UK and Scotland and specifically the division of UK assets and liabilities.[212] Standard & Poor's, another credit-rating agency, asserted in February 2014 that Scotland would face "significant, but not unsurpassable" challenges, and that "even excluding North Sea output and calculating per capita GDP only by looking at onshore income, Scotland would qualify for our highest economic assessment".[213] Research published by Moody's in May 2014 said that an independent Scotland would be given an A rating, comparable with Poland, the Czech Republic and Mexico.[214] An A rating would have been two grades below its then rating for the UK, which Moody's said would be unaffected by Scottish independence.[214]
Energy
Energy market
Most issues regarding energy were controlled by the UK government,[215] although control over planning laws had allowed the Scottish government to prevent the construction of new nuclear power stations in Scotland.[215] Supporters of independence wanted to retain a single energy market for the whole of Great Britain after independence, to maintain price stability and support for suppliers.[215] Opponents said that independence would threaten that single energy market.[215] Euan Phimister, professor of economics at Aberdeen University, said that although independence would affect the relationship, it was likely that there would be continued English demand for electricity generated in Scotland due to the lack of spare capacity elsewhere.[216][217] The second largest supplier of energy in the UK, SSE plc, believed that a single market would be the most likely outcome under independence, although it would require negotiations that may have led to changes to the existing system.[218]
Labour MP Caroline Flint said that independence would mean higher energy bills in Scotland, as its customers would have to pay more to support renewable energy in Scotland, which represented one-third of the UK total.[216] Euan Phimister said that bills were likely to increase across the whole of Great Britain because renewable schemes and new nuclear power stations in England were receiving higher subsidies than the power plants which were due for closure due to environmental regulations.[216] He also said that there was a distinction between existing and proposed renewable schemes in that the existing schemes had already been paid for, whereas any new construction required the promise of subsidy from the consumer.[216] Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey stated Scottish generators would no longer be eligible for UK subsidies, which would increase energy bills for consumers.[219]
North Sea oil
Approximately 90% of the United Kingdom's North Sea oil fields were located in Scottish territorial waters. The tax revenue generated from an offshore site was not counted within the nation or region nearest to it, but was instead allocated to the UK Continental Shelf. The revenue from North Sea oil was used to support current expenditure, and the UK did not create a sovereign oil fund (as in Norway).[220][221] The SNP believed that a portion of the revenues should have been invested in a sovereign oil fund. The Scottish government, citing industry body Oil and Gas UK, estimated in Scotland's Future that there were 24 billion barrels of oil equivalent still to be extracted.[222] Sir Ian Wood, founder of oil services company Wood Group, said in August 2014 that he believed there were between 15 and 16.5 billion boe and that the impact from declining production would be felt by 2030.[222] In September 2014, an investigation by industry recruitment website Oil and Gas People stated that there were extensive oil reserves to the west of the Western Isles and Shetland.[223] The report anticipated that the region would be developed within the next 10 years because of improvements in drilling technology, rig design and surveying.[223]
European Union
The SNP advocated that an independent Scotland should become a full member state of the European Union (EU) with some exemptions, such as not having to adopt the euro. There was debate over whether Scotland would be required to re-apply for membership, and if it could retain the UK's opt-outs.[224][225] The European Commission (EC) offered to provide an opinion to an existing member state on the matter, but the UK government confirmed it would not seek this advice, as it did not want to negotiate the terms of independence in advance of the referendum.[226]
There was no precedent for an EU member state dividing into two sovereign countries after joining the EU.[227] Supporters of independence stated that an independent Scotland would become an EU member by treaty amendment under Article 48 of the EU treaties. Opponents said that this would not be possible and that an independent Scotland would need to apply for EU membership under Article 49, which would require ratification by each member state.[228]
Christina McKelvie, Convener of the European and External Relations Committee of the Scottish Parliament, in March 2014 asked Viviane Reding, Vice-President of the European Commission, whether Article 48 would apply.[229] Reding replied that EU treaties would no longer apply to a territory when it secedes from a member state.[230] She also indicated that Article 49 would be the route to apply to become a member of the EU.[230] José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, stated earlier that an independent Scotland would have to apply for EU membership, while the rest of the UK would continue to be a member.[231] In 2014, he reiterated that Scotland joining the EU would be "extremely difficult, if not impossible".[232]
The former prime minister Sir John Major suggested in November 2013 that Scotland would need to re-apply for EU membership, but that this would mean overcoming opposition to separatism among other member states.[233] It was reported by the Independent that Spain could block Scottish membership of the EU, amid fears of repercussions with separatist movements in Catalonia and the Basque Country:[234] in November 2013 the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, said: "I know for sure that a region that would separate from a member state of the European Union would remain outside the European Union and that should be known by the Scots and the rest of the European citizens."[235] He also stated that an independent Scotland would become a "third country" outside the EU and would require the consent of all 28 EU states to rejoin the EU, but that he would not seek to block an independent Scotland's entry.[235] Salmond cited a letter from Mario Tenreiro of the EC's secretariat general that said it would be legally possible to renegotiate the situation of the UK and Scotland within the EU by unanimous agreement of all member states.[236] Spain's position was reiterated two days before the referendum by their European Affairs minister.[237]
Professor Sir David Edward, a former European Court judge, stated that the EU institutions and member states would be "obliged" to start negotiations before independence took effect to decide the future relationship.[238] He said this would be achieved by agreed amendment of the existing Treaties (Article 48), rather than a new Accession Treaty (Article 49).[225][238] Graham Avery, the EC's honorary director-general, agreed with Edward.[239] Avery wrote a report, published by the European Policy Centre, which said that EU leaders would probably allow Scotland to be part of the EU because of the legal and practical difficulties that would arise from excluding it.[240] In a research paper, Professor Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of Oxford University stated that the EU law normally takes a "pragmatic and purposive approach" to issues that are not already provided for by existing treaties.[241] Research published by the Economic and Social Research Council in August 2014 concluded that it was unlikely that an independent Scotland would be cut off from the rights and obligations of EU membership for any period of time, even if Scotland was not formally a member state of the EU from its date of independence.[242]
In January 2013, the Republic of Ireland's Minister of European Affairs, Lucinda Creighton, stated that "if Scotland were to become independent, Scotland would have to apply for membership and that can be a lengthy process".[243] She later clarified those remarks, writing that she "certainly did not at any stage suggest that Scotland could, should or would be thrown out of the EU".[244] In May 2013, Roland Vaubel, an Alternative for Germany adviser,[245] published a paper stating that Scotland would remain a member of the EU upon independence, and suggested there would need to be negotiations between the British and Scottish governments on sharing "the rights and obligations of the predecessor state". Vaubel also said that Barroso's comments on the legal position had "no basis in the European treaties".[246]
Future status of the United Kingdom in the European Union
In January 2013, David Cameron committed the Conservative Party to a referendum before the end of 2017 on UK membership of the EU if they won the 2015 UK general election.[247] Legislation for an in/out EU referendum was approved by the House of Commons in November 2013.[248] Studies showed some divergence in attitudes to the EU in Scotland and the rest of the UK. Although a Scottish government review based on survey data between 1999 and 2005 found that people in Scotland reported "broadly similar Eurosceptic views as people in Britain as a whole",[249] Ipsos MORI noted in February 2013 that voters in Scotland said they would choose to remain in the EU in a referendum, while there was a majority for withdrawal in England.[250]
Yes Scotland said that the UK government plans for an EU referendum had caused "economic uncertainty" for Scotland.[251] During a CBI Scotland event attended by Cameron, businessman Mike Rake criticised him for creating uncertainty about EU membership.[252] In response to such criticism, Cameron pointed to examples of inward investment in the UK that he said was not happening in the rest of Europe.[252] Some commentators suggested that the UK leaving the EU could undermine the case for Scottish independence, since free trade, freedom of movement and the absence of border controls between Scotland and England could no longer be assumed.[253][254][255]
Health care
Responsibility for most aspects of health care was devolved to the Scottish Parliament when it was established in 1999.[256] The Scottish government enacted health policies which were different from those in England, such as abolishing charges for prescriptions and elderly personal care.[256] NHS Scotland was operationally independent of the NHS in the rest of the United Kingdom since the formation of the NHS in 1948.[257][258] Supporters of independence argued that independence was needed because possible reductions in the NHS budget in England would result in reduced funding for Scotland, which would make it difficult to maintain the existing service.[258] Harry Burns, a former chief medical officer for Scotland, said in July 2014 that he thought independence could be beneficial for public health because it may give people greater control of their lives.[259]
In May 2014, about 100 medical workers, including surgeons, consultant doctors, GPs, pharmacists, dentists, hospital porters and janitors joined a pro-independence campaign group called "NHS for Yes". Its co-founder described health care in Scotland as "a shining example of self-government for Scotland demonstrably being far better than Westminster government" and said independence would "protect [NHS Scotland] from future Westminster funding cuts, and the damaging impact of privatisation south of the border".[260] In contrast, opponents argued that a subsequent drop in funding to an independent Scottish Government would have a significantly larger effect upon the budget. Concerns were also raised about the impact on the medical research sector in Scotland from the loss of UK wide research funding.[261]
Two days before the referendum, papers indicating "a funding gap of £400–£450m in the next two financial years, 2015–17", for Scotland's NHS, resulting from Scottish government policies, were leaked to the media.[262] A Scottish government spokesperson commented that the papers were from "part of the regular discussions among NHS leaders to plan for NHS Scotland's future".[262]
Specialist treatment
Opponents of independence said that being part of the UK was crucial in allowing Scots to obtain specialist treatment elsewhere in the UK.[258] Although operationally independent, NHS Scotland had reciprocal arrangements in place with the NHS services in the rest of the UK and specialist services were shared.[257] Vote No Borders, a unionist campaign group, ran a cinema advert which claimed that Scots would find it more difficult to obtain treatment at the Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH), a London facility which provided specialist care for children.[263][264] Vote No Borders withdrew the advert after GOSH complained that it had not been consulted about the advert and stated that they had reciprocal health care agreements with numerous countries.[263][264]
International relations
The white paper on independence proposed that an independent Scotland would open around 100 embassies around the world.[123] Prime Minister David Cameron suggested that an independent Scotland would be "marginalised" at the United Nations, where the UK is a permanent member of the Security Council.[265] Former Prime Minister John Major suggested that the UK could lose its permanent seat at the Security Council if Scotland became independent.[266]
Monarchy
Forming a republic was favoured by some pro-independence political parties and organisations, including the Scottish Green Party[267] and the Scottish Socialist Party.[268] The SNP favoured an independent Scotland continuing to recognise Elizabeth II as Queen of Scotland. Christine Grahame MSP said she believed that party policy was to hold a referendum on the matter,[269] due to a 1997 SNP conference resolution.[270]
Some media reports suggested that the announcement on 8 September of the pregnancy of the Duchess of Cambridge with her second child would help pro-union sentiment.[271][272] The Queen's official position on Scottish independence was neutral.[273] Just prior to the referendum, Elizabeth II said in a private conversation that she hoped people would "think very carefully about the future".[274]
Pensions
UK State Pensions were managed by the UK government, paying £113.10 per week to a single person who is of state pension age in the 2013/14 tax year.[275] The state pension age for men was 65, but this was due to rise to 66 in 2020 and 67 by 2028.[275] Research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research found that an independent Scotland could delay these increases, due to a lower life expectancy.[276] The Scotland's Future white paper pledged to maintain a state pension at a similar rate to the UK.[277]
Former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in April 2014 that Scotland had an above-average share of the public-sector pension bill and concluded that pensions would be protected by sharing risks and resources within the UK.[278] UK government pensions minister Steve Webb said in May 2014 that Scots would be entitled to the current levels of state pension after independence because they had accumulated rights within the existing system.[279] Webb went on to say that there would need to be negotiations between the UK and Scotland as to how these pensions would be paid.[279]
In relation to private pension schemes, a report by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland expressed concern that there were no plans to deal with EU regulations that may affect the funding of cross-border defined benefit schemes.[280] The EC decided in March 2014 not to relax these regulations, which require cross-border schemes to be fully funded.[281]
Sport
Scotland hosted the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow, less than two months before the referendum.[282][283] The Scottish team won a record number of gold medals, which the writer Alan Bisset said would help give voters more belief and confidence.[282] Sunday Herald columnist Ian Bell took an opposing view, saying that sporting success would be unlikely to aid support for independence, due to the lengthy and passionate debate on the subject.[282]
Former Labour first minister Henry McLeish published a report in May 2014 that found no obvious barriers to an independent Scotland competing in the 2016 Summer Olympics.[284] McLeish said that some athletes, particularly those in team sports, may choose to compete for the existing Great Britain team rather than Scotland, as they would be nationals of both states.[284] International Olympic Committee representative Craig Reedie pointed out that Scotland would need to obtain United Nations membership and may want to set its own Olympic qualifying standards, which would need to be done in the period between independence (March 2016) and the closing date for entries (July 2016).[284][285]
Gordon Brown pointed to the 2012 medal count for Great Britain, saying that it showed the success of the union.[286] Scottish athletes were involved in 13 of the 65 medals won by Great Britain in 2012, but only three of those were won without assistance by athletes from other parts of the UK.[287] Sir Chris Hoy said in May 2013 that it would "take time" for Scottish athletes to "establish themselves in a new training environment", and indicated that the good performance of Scottish athletes in the Great Britain team would not automatically translate into that of an independent Scotland team.[288] Hoy also said that he believed the lack of facilities and coaching infrastructure in Scotland would have to be addressed by an independent state.[288]
Status of Northern and Western Isles
The prospect of an independent Scotland raised questions about the future of the Northern Isles (Orkney and Shetland) and the Western Isles, island groups off the Scottish mainland. Some islanders called for separate referendums to be held in the islands on 25 September 2014, one week after the Scottish referendum.[289][290][291] In March 2014, the Scottish Parliament published an online petition it had received calling for such referendums, which was supported by Shetland MSP Tavish Scott.[292] The proposed referendums would have asked islanders to choose from three options: that the island group should become an independent country; that it should remain in Scotland; or that (in the event of Scottish independence) it should remain in the UK.[293] The third option would have implemented a conditional promise made in 2012 by an SNP spokesperson, who said that Orkney and Shetland could remain in the United Kingdom if their "drive for self-determination" was strong enough.[294]
Politicians in the three island groups referred to the Scottish referendum as the most important event in their political history "since the inception of the island councils in 1975".[295] Angus Campbell, leader of the Western Isles, said that the ongoing constitutional debate offered the "opportunity for the three island councils to secure increased powers for our communities to take decisions which will benefit the economies and the lives of those who live in the islands".[295] In a meeting of the island councils in March 2013, leaders of the three territories discussed their future in the event of Scottish independence.[296] This included whether the islands could demand and achieve autonomous status within either Scotland or the rest of the UK. Among the scenarios proposed were achieving either Crown Dependency status or self-government modelled after the Faroe Islands, in association with either Scotland or the UK.[296] Steven Heddle, Orkney's council leader, described pursuing Crown Dependency status as the least likely option, as it would threaten funding from the EU, which was essential for local farmers.[296] Alasdair Allan, MSP for the Western Isles, said independence could have a positive impact on the isles, as "crofters and farmers could expect a substantial uplift in agricultural and rural development funding via the Common Agricultural Policy if Scotland were an independent member state of the EU".[297]
In July 2013, the Scottish government made the Lerwick Declaration, indicating an interest in devolving power to Scotland's islands. By November, it had committed to devolving further powers to Orkney, Shetland and the Western Isles in the event of independence.[298] Steven Heddle called for legislation to that effect to be introduced regardless of the referendum result.[299]
A day before the referendum Alistair Carmichael, the MP for Orkney and Shetland, and then-Secretary of State for Scotland, suggested that if Shetland were to vote strongly against independence but the Scottish national vote was narrowly in favour, a discussion should be had about Shetland becoming a self-governing crown dependency outside of independent Scotland, similar to the Isle of Man. He stated that he did not want such circumstances to arise, "and the best way to avoid this was to vote no in the referendum."[300][301]
Universities
Scientific research
In 2012–13, Scottish universities received 13.1% of Research Councils UK funding.[302] Alan Trench of University College London said that Scottish universities had received a "hugely disproportionate" level of funding and would no longer be able to access it following independence. Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, suggested that independence would mean Scottish universities losing £210m in research funding.[303] The Institute of Physics in Scotland warned that access to international facilities such as the CERN Large Hadron Collider, the European Space Agency, and European Southern Observatory could require renegotiation by the Scottish government.[304] It also expressed concerns about research funding from UK charities and the reaction of international companies with Scottish facilities.[304]
The Scottish government's education secretary, Michael Russell, said that Scotland's universities had a "global reputation" that would continue to attract investment after independence.[305] In September 2013, the principal of the University of Aberdeen said that Scottish universities could continue to access UK research funding through a "single research area" that crossed both nations' boundaries.[306] David Bell, professor of economics at the University of Stirling, said that cross-border collaboration might continue, but Scottish universities could still lose their financial advantage.[307] Roger Cook of the Scotland Institute pointed out that although Scottish universities had received a higher share of Research Councils funding, they were much less dependent on this as a source of funding than their counterparts in England.[121] Professors from Scotland's five medical schools wrote an open letter warning that independence would mean Scotland's researcher base being "denied its present ability to win proportionately more grant funding".[308]
Questions were asked whether Scotland, as an economy of a smaller size than the UK, would still support the same level of research activity, and what additional efforts might be required to establish a system of research councils "north of the border".[309][310] Jo Shaw, Salvesen chair of European institutions at the University of Edinburgh, noted that in smaller states, relationships between universities and research funders became "cosy", and led to a "corporatist" approach.[311]
Student funding
At the time of the referendum, Students domiciled in Scotland did not pay tuition fees.[312] Students domiciled in the rest of the UK were charged fees of up to £9,000 per annum by Scottish universities,[313] but those from other EU member states were not charged fees due to EU law.[314]
If Scotland had become an independent state, students from the rest of the UK would have been in the same position as students from the rest of the EU.[313] A University of Edinburgh study found that this would cause a loss in funding, which could have squeezed out Scottish students.[313] The study suggested three courses of action for an independent Scotland: introducing tuition fees for all students; negotiating an agreement with the EU where a quota of student places would be reserved for Scots; or introducing a separate admissions service for students from other EU member states, with an admission fee attached.[313] It concluded that the EU may allow a quota system for some specialist subjects, such as medicine, where there was a clear need for local students to be trained for particular careers, but that other subjects would not be eligible.[313] The study also found that their third suggestion would run against the spirit of the Bologna agreement, which aimed to encourage EU student mobility.[313]
The Scottish government stated in its white paper, Scotland's Future, that the present tuition fees arrangement would remain in place in an independent Scotland, as the EU allowed for different fee arrangements in "exceptional circumstances".[315] Jan Figel, a former EU commissioner for education, said in January 2014 that it would be illegal for an independent Scotland to apply a different treatment to students from the rest of the UK.[316] The Law Society of Scotland concurred.[317] A report by a House of Commons select committee stated that it would cost an independent Scottish government £150 million to provide free tuition to students from the rest of the UK.[315] A group of academics campaigning for independence expressed concern that the present arrangements would not continue if Scotland stayed within the UK, due to public spending cuts in England and the consequential effects of the Barnett formula.[318]
Welfare
The Yes campaign argued that control of welfare policy would be a major benefit of independence.[319] According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, independence would "give the opportunity for more radical reform, so that the [welfare] system better reflects the views of the Scottish people".[320] Yes Scotland and deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon said the existing welfare system could only be guaranteed by voting for independence.[321][322] In September 2013, the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO), which represents charities, called for a separate welfare system to be established in Scotland.[323]
In November 2013, the Scottish government pledged to use the powers of independence to reverse key aspects of the Welfare Reform Act 2012, which was implemented across the UK despite opposition from a majority of Scotland's MPs. It said it would abolish Universal Credit[324] and the bedroom tax.[325] The SNP also criticised Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow secretary of state for work and pensions, for saying[326] that a future UK Labour government would be even tougher on benefits than the Cameron–Clegg coalition government.[327][328]
In January 2012, sources close to the prime minister told The Scotsman that "a unified tax and benefit system is at the heart of a united country" and that these powers could not be devolved to Scotland after the referendum,[329] though Liberal Democrat Michael Moore said in August 2013 that devolution of parts of the welfare budget should be "up for debate".[330] Labour politician Jim Murphy, a former Secretary of State for Scotland, said that he was "fiercely committed" to devolving welfare powers to the Scottish Parliament, but also warned that independence would be disruptive and would not be beneficial.[331] Scottish Labour's Devolution Commission recommended in March 2014 that some aspects of the welfare state, including housing benefit and attendance allowance, should be devolved.[332]
Feminist economist Ailsa McKay, a supporter of the Radical Independence movement, argued that an independent Scotland should change its welfare system dramatically by offering all its people a basic income.[333]
Respuestas
Public events
A number of demonstrations in support of independence were co-ordinated following the announcement of the referendum. The March and Rally for Scottish Independence in September 2012 drew a crowd of between 5,000 and 10,000 people to Princes Street Gardens.[334] The event was repeated in September 2013; police estimated that over 8,000 people took part in the march, while organisers and the Scottish Police Federation[335] claimed between 20,000 and 30,000 people took part in the combined march and rally.[336] The March and Rally was criticised in both 2012 and 2013 for the involvement of groups like the Scottish Republican Socialist Movement[337] and Vlaamse Volksbeweging.[338]
Five days before the referendum vote, the Orange Order – a Protestant brotherhood – held a major anti-independence march and rally in Edinburgh. It involved at least 15,000 Orangemen, loyalist bands and supporters from Scotland and across the UK,[339] and was described as the biggest pro-Union demonstration of the campaign up to that date.[340] A rally for UK unity, organised by the Let's Stay Together campaign, was attended by 5,000 people in London's Trafalgar Square on the Monday preceding the referendum.[341] Similar events were held in London, Bristol, Leeds, Cardiff, Manchester and Belfast on the day before the referendum.[342]
Labour MP Jim Murphy conducted a Scotland-wide tour to campaign for the No side, intending to visit 100 towns and cities in 100 days before the referendum.[343] On 28 August he suspended his tour, after being hit by an egg in Kirkcaldy, and it was resumed on 3 September.[343][344] Murphy said that he had been subjected to "co-ordinated abuse" from Yes supporters and pointed to evidence of this on social media.[343] Better Together released footage of events in the tour where he was heckled by members of the public, some of whom called him a "traitor", "parasite", "terrorist" and "quisling".[343] David Cameron said that "there's nothing wrong with a bit of heckling, but throwing things isn't necessarily part of the democratic process".[343] Alex Salmond pointed out that people had "every entitlement to peaceful protest", but also said that "people shouldn't throw eggs at somebody full stop".[343]
Hands Across The Border
Hands Across The Border was a campaign founded in support of Scotland remaining in the United Kingdom. The campaign was the idea of Conservative politician Rory Stewart, MP for Penrith and The Border. In July 2014, the campaign initiated the construction of a large cairn on the Anglo-Scottish border at Gretna. The cairn was named 'The Auld Acquaintance', and was constructed by stones brought from across the UK and placed on the cairn by members of the public who wished to show their support for Scotland staying in the United Kingdom.[345][346] The cairn was completed in September 2014, days before the referendum was held.[347] The campaign received support from several public figures.[348][349]
Online campaigns
At the launch of the Yes Scotland campaign in May 2012, Alex Salmond said that the case for independence would be driven by community activism and "online wizardry".[350]
The not-for-profit and non-partisan What Scotland Thinks project tracked poll and survey data, including online activity, during the referendum campaign. Using data from the Applied Quantitative Methods Network (AQMeN) research centre, the project compiled the social media activity of the two main campaigns, Yes Scotland and Better Together, by monitoring their respective Facebook and Twitter accounts since August 2013.[351] What Scotland Thinks published a report in February 2014 stating that the Yes Scotland campaign was gaining more Facebook likes. Following the launch of the White Paper on 26 November, the average gap between the two Facebook pages grew from about 8,000 to about 23,000 by February 2014. Analysis of the campaigns' Twitter accounts showed the gap between the campaigns increased from approximately 8,000 followers in August 2013 to 13,804 followers in February 2014, in favour of Yes Scotland.[351] The project published a further report in June 2014 saying that greater online activity for Yes Scotland had continued.[352]
Professor Michael Keating said in April 2014 that the pro-independence movement was visibly stronger and fighting a "ground war", while unionist supporters were fighting an "'air war' of facts and figures".[353]
The launch of online celebrity videos from both viewpoints was reported by the media in mid-July 2014. The "Let's Stay Together" campaign group produced a YouTube video called "'Scotland, you're my best friend'", featuring John Barrowman, Ross Kemp and Eddie Izzard.[354] A pro-independence video was produced by Yes Scotland and appeared on the campaign's YouTube channel. Titled "✘ on September 18th #voteYes", the video features 32 people, including David Hayman, Martin Compston and Stuart Braithwaite.[355]
The pro-independence organisation National Collective was identified by the Independent newspaper as the initiators of an online hashtag campaign that began in mid-August 2014. Writing for the Independent, Antonia Molloy said that the previous "#IndyReasons" hashtag campaign served as the inspiration for the "#YesBecause" campaign that was observed on the Twitter, Facebook and Vine social media platforms. From 21 August, users were invited to explain their reasons for voting "Yes" and #YesBecause was trending on Twitter after an hour from the launch.[356] The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) reported on 22 August that a "#NoBecause" campaign emerged in opposition to the Collective.[357]
Debates
Debates over the issue of independence took place on television, in communities, and within universities and societies since the announcement of the referendum.[358][359][360][361][362] The STV current affairs programme Scotland Tonight televised a series of debates: Nicola Sturgeon v Michael Moore,[363] Sturgeon v Anas Sarwar,[364] Sturgeon v Alistair Carmichael[365] and Sturgeon v Johann Lamont.[366] On 21 January 2014, BBC Two Scotland broadcast the first in a series of round-table debates, which was filmed in Greenock and chaired by James Cook.[367][368]
The Yes campaign repeatedly called for a televised debate between UK Prime Minister David Cameron and First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond. These calls for a one-on-one debate were dismissed by Cameron[369][370] on the basis that the referendum is "for Scots to decide" and the debate should be "between people in Scotland who want to stay, and people in Scotland who want to go".[371] Calls for such a debate were also supported by former Prime Minister Gordon Brown who said it would be a "good idea".[372] Better Together chairman Alistair Darling accused Salmond of "running scared" from debating him instead,[373] although Sturgeon stated in 2013 that a Salmond–Darling debate would take place at some point.[374] Darling refused a public debate with Yes Scotland chairman Blair Jenkins.[375] UKIP leader Nigel Farage also challenged Salmond to debate, but Farage was dismissed by an SNP spokeswoman as "an irrelevance in Scotland".[376]
After weeks of negotiation, a debate between Salmond and Darling was arranged.[136] The programme, titled as Salmond & Darling: The Debate, was broadcast by STV on 5 August 2014.[377] The debate, moderated by Bernard Ponsonby, saw both politicians make opening statements and cross-examine each other before taking questions from the audience. At the end of the clash, they were both given the chance to make a closing speech.[378][379] Both campaign groups claimed victory in the debate.[380] A snap poll conducted by ICM stated Darling won the debate by 56% to 44%.[381] In his analysis of the ICM poll, Professor John Curtice detected little movement either way as a result of the debate.[382]
A second debate between Salmond and Darling, titled Scotland Decides: Salmond versus Darling was shown on BBC One Scotland (and BBC Two in the rest of the UK) on 25 August, and was hosted by Glenn Campbell.[383][384] Salmond was perceived to have won the debate,[385][386] and a snap poll conducted by ICM Research stated Salmond won the debate by 71% to 29%.[387][388]
Accusations of BBC bias
In January 2014, a year-long academic study by John Robertson at the University of the West of Scotland found that coverage by the BBC and the Scottish commercial channel STV had favoured the No campaign, although Robertson conceded that this was partly due to there being more major political parties in favour of No.[389][390][391][392] In March 2014, BBC Scotland chiefs appeared before a Scottish Parliament committee to face questions from MSPs about the broadcaster's coverage.[393] During that session, BBC Scotland director Ken MacQuarrie disputed the findings of Robertson's study, saying that its conclusions were largely based upon "flawed analysis" and had contained factual errors.[389]
During the latter stages of the campaign there were further allegations by some independence supporters that the BBC – the UK's national broadcaster – was biased against Scottish independence.[394][395] In an interview for the Sunday Herald, Alex Salmond said he believed the BBC had been unconsciously biased against independence.[394] Former BBC journalist Paul Mason commented: "Not since Iraq have I seen BBC News working at propaganda strength like this".[394] The BBC replied that "Our coverage of the referendum story is fair and impartial in line with the editorial guidelines".[396] Alex Massie wrote in The Spectator that the BBC's coverage was consistent with their attitude towards other government proposals of such magnitude and that it was incumbent upon the Yes campaign to prove its assertions.[397]
On 29 June, several hundred independence supporters gathered in a demonstration outside BBC Pacific Quay, the main BBC studio in Glasgow, in protest at its alleged bias.[397][398][399] A week before the vote, BBC political editor Nick Robinson said in a news item that Salmond "didn't answer" his questions at a press conference.[400] Several thousand independence supporters then protested at the BBC Scotland headquarters,[400] accusing the BBC of broadcasting pro-Union "propaganda" and "lies".[394] The Independent reported that the protesters accused Robinson of working "with the Treasury to spread lies about the dangers to business and financial services of an independent Scotland".[394] Alastair Campbell said that the "organised protests" amounted to media censorship "not far off" Vladimir Putin's Russia, telling Twitter users they should "Vote YES for intimidation".[394] The National Union of Journalists (NUJ) asked people to think about the implications of alleging journalistic bias when its members were only asking difficult questions.[401] Robinson later expressed his "regret" at using the phrase "didn't answer" in his report[400] and criticised the protests.[402]
Speaking after the referendum, Yes Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins said that he did not believe there was a "systemic bias" against Yes or any "corporate intent to disadvantage the Yes campaign".[395]
Intimidation
In addition to the incidents described above, there were reports of intimidation during the campaign.[401][403] A survey of the 133 business leaders who signed a public letter backing the Union reported that half of respondents "said that they had felt intimidated or pressurised by SNP or the Yes campaign as a result of their views".[404] The Daily Telegraph reported that other businesspeople had been unwilling to express an opinion on the referendum publicly because they were concerned about a loss of business from the SNP-led Scottish government or local government.[404] The NUJ called for abuse and bullying of its members, which had been led by online attacks, to end, commenting that, "For the duration of the referendum there has been hostility to journalists doing their jobs".[405] The Scottish Police Federation stated that criminal acts related to the referendum were few in number and criticised those "suggesting a minority of mindless idiots are representative of anything".[406]
Sondeo de opinión
Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling showed support for independence at 32%–38% of the Scottish population, which represented a slight decline from 2007, when the SNP had first formed the Scottish government.[407] By 2012, there had been no poll evidence of majority support for independence, although the share "vehemently opposed to independence" had declined.[407] According to Curtice, the polls were stable during most of 2013, with "no" leading by an average of 17% with a year to go.[408] Polling expert Nate Silver said in 2013 that the yes campaign had "virtually no chance" of winning the referendum.[409] After the referendum, Silver said that although his prediction had been proven "right" he had done little research beforehand.[410]
The gap narrowed after the release of the Scottish government white paper on independence: an average of five polls in December 2013 and January 2014 gave 39% yes and 61% no, once 'don't knows' had been excluded.[411] The polls tightened further after the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, stated in February that the UK government was opposed to a currency union; the average yes support increased to 43%, once 'don't knows' had been excluded.[412] There was little movement in the following months, with the average continuing to show 43% yes and 57% no (excluding don't knows) in July 2014[413] and August 2014.[414]
In early September, polls indicated that the vote would be closer than had been indicated earlier. On 6 September a YouGov poll gave those in favour 47% versus 45% for those against; excluding those undecided, the figures were 51% and 49%, respectively.[415] The final polls, taken in the last few days of the campaign, indicated a lead for No of between 4% and 6%.[416] No exit poll was conducted. Soon after polling stations had closed, YouGov released a final poll that had been taken during the day of voting, indicating 46% Yes, 54% No.[417][418]
Writing after the referendum, Nate Silver pointed out that the final margin of victory for No was greater than that indicated by the opinion polls.[410] He suggested that this could have been due to less enthusiastic voters being more pro-Union, which may not have been reflected in the polls.[410] Stephen Fisher, a sociology professor at Oxford University, noted in a study of other constitutional referendums that pollsters had tended to overestimate the "Yes" option.[419]
Votación
Administration
The Scottish Independence Referendum Bill identified the Convener of the Electoral Management Board for Scotland as Chief Counting Officer for the referendum.[420] The Chief Counting Officer, Mary Pitcaithly,[421] was supported by a Counting Officer in each of the 32 local authority areas of Scotland,[421] who was typically the Chief Executive for that local authority. Each Counting Officer had a referendum team, which included:
- Electoral Registration Officers. They compiled and maintained the electoral register and lists of postal and proxy voters.[421]
- Presiding Officers (one per polling place).[421] They were responsible for the overall management of the polling place.
- Poll Clerks.[421] They assisted the Presiding Officer at their polling place.
- Polling Station Inspectors (optional).[421] They toured the area polling stations (the specific part/room of the polling place in which votes were cast).
Voting places and times
Voting took place between 07:00 and 22:00 BST[422] in "polling places",[421] which included schools, church halls, libraries and community centres. Those who were still queuing when polls closed were not denied the chance to vote.[423]
Count of votes
Counting began after polls closed. Votes from the 32 local government areas were counted and announced by each area separately.[424][425] Results came in during the early hours of 19 September, with the first result being from Clackmannanshire, and the last being from Highland.[426]
Resultados
55.3% voted against independence,[427] with a turnout of 84.6%. 28 of the 32 council areas voted "No", although the four areas that voted "Yes" (Dundee, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire) contained over 20% of the Scottish electorate.
The overall turnout of 84.6% was very high for Scotland.[428] Turnout was around 50–60% for elections to the Scottish and UK parliaments in the early 21st century.[429] The most recent United Kingdom general election with a comparable turnout was in 1950, when 83.9% voted.[428] The last ballot in the United Kingdom with a higher turnout than 84.6% was in January 1910, when no women and fewer men were allowed to vote (i.e., before universal suffrage applied to UK elections).[428] Of the 32 areas, East Dunbartonshire had the highest turnout at 91.0%, and Glasgow the lowest at 75.0%.[428]
An academic study, surveying 5,000 Scottish voters soon after the referendum, found that the majority for No was formed by an "unusual alliance" of the very young, average earners, Protestants and women.[430] The study supported polling evidence that there was a gender gap, but countered beliefs that higher earners had supported No and that younger voters had mostly voted Yes.[430]
According to John Curtice, polling evidence indicates that support for independence was highest among those aged in their late 20s and early 30s, with a higher No vote among those aged between 16–24.[431] There was an age gap at the referendum, with elderly voters being the most likely to vote against independence and younger voters aged under 55, except for those aged between 16–24, generally being more in favour of independence.[431] Those in C2DE, or "working class", occupations were slightly more likely to vote in favour of independence than those in ABC1, or "middle class", occupations' however, there was a significant discrepancy in voting between those living in the most deprived areas and those living in the least deprived areas, with those in more deprived areas being significantly more likely to vote in favour of independence and those in more affluent areas being more likely to vote against independence.[431] This was picked up by other academics,[432] with data from the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation study from 2012 indicating that the six most deprived local authorities in Scotland returned the highest Yes vote shares at the referendum.[433]
Totals
Choice | Votes | % |
---|---|---|
No | 2,001,926 | 55.30 |
Yes | 1,617,989 | 44.70 |
Valid votes | 3,619,915 | 99.91 |
Invalid or blank votes | 3,429 | 0.09 |
Total votes | 3,623,344 | 100.00 |
Registered voters and turnout | 4,283,392 | 84.59 |
Source: BBC News, General Register Office for Scotland |
Yes: 1,617,989 (44.7%) | No: 2,001,926 (55.3%) | ||
▲ |
By area
Local authority [434] | Yes votes | No votes | Yes (%) | No (%) | Valid votes | Turnout (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aberdeen | 59,390 | 84,094 | 41.4% | 58.6% | 143,484 | 81.7% |
Aberdeenshire | 71,337 | 108,606 | 39.6% | 60.4% | 179,943 | 87.2% |
Angus | 35,044 | 45,192 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 80,236 | 85.7% |
Argyll and Bute | 26,324 | 37,143 | 41.5% | 58.5% | 63,467 | 88.2% |
Clackmannanshire | 16,350 | 19,036 | 46.2% | 53.8% | 35,386 | 88.6% |
Dumfries and Galloway | 36,614 | 70,039 | 34.3% | 65.7% | 106,653 | 87.5% |
Dundee | 53,620 | 39,880 | 57.3% | 42.7% | 93,500 | 78.8% |
East Ayrshire | 39,762 | 44,442 | 47.2% | 52.8% | 84,204 | 84.5% |
East Dunbartonshire | 30,624 | 48,314 | 38.8% | 61.2% | 78,938 | 91.0% |
East Lothian | 27,467 | 44,283 | 38.3% | 61.7% | 71,750 | 87.6% |
East Renfrewshire | 24,287 | 41,690 | 36.8% | 63.2% | 65,977 | 90.4% |
Edinburgh | 123,927 | 194,638 | 38.9% | 61.1% | 318,565 | 84.4% |
Eilean Siar | 9,195 | 10,544 | 46.6% | 53.4% | 19,739 | 86.2% |
Falkirk | 50,489 | 58,030 | 46.5% | 53.5% | 108,519 | 88.7% |
Fife | 114,148 | 139,788 | 45.0% | 55.0% | 253,936 | 84.1% |
Glasgow | 194,779 | 169,347 | 53.5% | 46.5% | 364,126 | 75.0% |
Highland | 78,069 | 87,739 | 47.1% | 52.9% | 165,808 | 87.0% |
Inverclyde | 27,243 | 27,329 | 49.9% | 50.1% | 54,572 | 87.4% |
Midlothian | 26,370 | 33,972 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 60,342 | 86.8% |
Moray | 27,232 | 36,935 | 42.4% | 57.6% | 64,167 | 85.4% |
North Ayrshire | 47,072 | 49,016 | 48.9% | 51.1% | 96,088 | 84.4% |
North Lanarkshire | 115,783 | 110,922 | 51.1% | 48.9% | 226,705 | 84.4% |
Orkney | 4,883 | 10,004 | 32.8% | 67.2% | 14,887 | 83.7% |
Perth and Kinross | 41,475 | 62,714 | 39.8% | 60.2% | 104,189 | 86.9% |
Renfrewshire | 55,466 | 62,067 | 47.2% | 52.8% | 117,533 | 87.3% |
Scottish Borders | 27,906 | 55,553 | 33.4% | 66.6% | 83,459 | 87.4% |
Shetland | 5,669 | 9,951 | 36.3% | 63.7% | 15,620 | 84.4% |
South Ayrshire | 34,402 | 47,247 | 42.1% | 57.9% | 81,649 | 86.1% |
South Lanarkshire | 100,990 | 121,800 | 45.3% | 54.7% | 222,790 | 85.3% |
Stirling | 25,010 | 37,153 | 40.2% | 59.8% | 62,163 | 90.1% |
West Dunbartonshire | 33,720 | 28,776 | 54.0% | 46.0% | 62,396 | 87.9% |
West Lothian | 53,342 | 65,682 | 44.8% | 55.2% | 119,024 | 86.2% |
Scotland | 1,617,989 | 2,001,926 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 3,619,915 | 84.6% |
By UK Parliament constituency
Constituency | Member of Parliament | Majority (2010) | Number of votes | Proportion of votes | Valid votes | Notes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes votes | No votes | Yes (%) | No (%) | |||||||
Argyll and Bute | Alan Reid | 7.6% | 26,324 | 37,143 | 41.5% | 58.5% | 63,467 | |||
East Lothian | Fiona O'Donnell | 24.9% | 27,467 | 44,283 | 38.3% | 61.7% | 71,750 | |||
East Renfrewshire | Jim Murphy | 20.4% | 24,287 | 41,690 | 36.8% | 63.2% | 65,977 | |||
Edinburgh East | Sheila Gilmore | 23.0% | 27,500 | 30,632 | 47.3% | 52.7% | 58,232 | [435] | ||
Edinburgh North and Leith | Mark Lazarowicz | 3.6% | 28,813 | 43,253 | 40.0% | 60.0% | 72,181 | [435] | ||
Edinburgh South | Ian Murray | 0.7% | 20,340 | 38,298 | 34.7% | 65.3% | 58,738 | [435] | ||
Edinburgh South West | Alistair Darling | 18.6% | 24,659 | 39,509 | 38.4% | 61.6% | 64,249 | [435] | ||
Edinburgh West | Mike Crockart | 8.2% | 22,615 | 42,946 | 34.5% | 65.5% | 65,625 | [435] | ||
Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Angus MacNeil | 12.8% | 9,195 | 10,544 | 46.6% | 53.4% | 19,739 | |||
Inverclyde | Iain McKenzie | 20.8% | 27,243 | 27,329 | 49.9% | 50.1% | 54,572 | |||
Midlothian | David Hamilton | 26.4% | 26,370 | 33,972 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 60,342 | |||
Moray | Angus Robertson | 13.6% | 27,232 | 36,935 | 42.4% | 57.6% | 64,167 | |||
Orkney and Shetland | Alistair Carmichael | 51.3% | 10,552 | 19,955 | 34.6% | 65.4% | 30,507 | |||
Stirling | Anne McGuire | 17.9% | 25,010 | 37,153 | 40.2% | 59.8% | 62,163 | |||
West Dunbartonshire | Gemma Doyle | 41.2% | 33,720 | 28,776 | 54.0% | 46.0% | 62,396 | |||
Notes: This is an incomplete list as not all local authorities counted by ward or constituency. The constituency results are primarily obtained through local authority breakdowns of the result or the constituency boundaries being co-terminous with the local government district. |
By Scottish Parliament constituency
Constituency | Member of Scottish Parliament | Majority (2011) | Number of votes | Proportion of votes | Valid votes | Notes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes votes | No votes | Yes (%) | No (%) | |||||||
Clydesdale | Aileen Campbell | 14.1% | 16,733 | 25,391 | 39.8% | 60.3% | 42,124 | [436] | ||
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth | Jamie Hepburn | 13.7% | 30,821 | 28,486 | 52.0% | 48.0% | 59,307 | [437] | ||
East Kilbride | Linda Fabiani | 6.5% | 31,309 | 36,365 | 46.3% | 53.7% | 67,674 | [436] | ||
Falkirk East | Angus MacDonald | 12.6% | 24,757 | 29,754 | 45.4% | 54.5% | 54,511 | [438] | ||
Falkirk West | Michael Matheson | 20.4% | 25,732 | 28,276 | 47.6% | 52.3% | 54,008 | [438] | ||
Glasgow Anniesland | Bill Kidd | 0.0% | 23,718 | 22,976 | 50.8% | 49.2% | 46,694 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Cathcart | James Dornan | 6.1% | 26,499 | 23,688 | 52.8% | 47.2% | 50,187 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Kelvin | Sandra White | 3.6% | 23,976 | 21,742 | 52.4% | 47.6% | 45,718 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn | Patricia Ferguson | 6.3% | 24,079 | 18,094 | 57.1% | 42.9% | 42,173 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Pollok | Johann Lamont | 2.7% | 26,807 | 22,956 | 53.9% | 46.1% | 49,763 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Provan | Paul Martin | 10.8% | 25,217 | 19,046 | 57.0% | 43.0% | 44,263 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Shettleston | John Mason | 2.8% | 23,137 | 21,911 | 51.3% | 48.7% | 45,102 | [439] | ||
Glasgow Southside | Nicola Sturgeon | 19.2% | 21,346 | 18,934 | 53.0% | 47.0% | 40,280 | [439] | ||
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse | Christina McKelvie | 8.7% | 32,104 | 39,129 | 45.1% | 54.9% | 71,233 | [436] | ||
Motherwell and Wishaw | John Pentland | 2.4% | 29,102 | 27,848 | 51.1% | 48.9% | 59,307 | [437] | ||
Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Alasdair Allan | 36.7% | 9,195 | 10,544 | 46.6% | 53.4% | 19,739 | |||
Orkney | Liam McArthur | 10.5% | 4,883 | 10,004 | 32.8% | 67.2% | 14,887 | |||
Paisley | George Adam | 0.9% | 22,040 | 21,690 | 50.4% | 49.6% | 43,730 | |||
Rutherglen | James Kelly | 6.6% | 20,844 | 20,915 | 49.9% | 50.1% | 41,759 | [436] | ||
Shetland | Tavish Scott | 17.2% | 5,669 | 9,951 | 36.3% | 63.7% | 15,620 | |||
Notes: This is an incomplete list as not all local authorities counted by ward or constituency. The constituency results are primarily obtained through local authority breakdowns of the result or the constituency boundaries being co-terminous with the local government district. |
Analysis of voters' reasons
On the day of the referendum, Lord Ashcroft conducted a poll of over 2,000 voters to identify the major reasons for their voting choices. This poll found that among No voters, more than half (57%) stated the pound sterling was one of the most important factors in their decision. Among Yes voters, the biggest single motivation was "disaffection with Westminster politics".[3]
Reacciones al resultado
Domestic reaction
Queen Elizabeth II issued a statement following the referendum, in which she said that it was "a result that all of us throughout the United Kingdom will respect" and that the Royal Family would support all efforts to "work constructively for the future of Scotland and indeed all parts of this country".[440]
Prime Minister David Cameron said he was "delighted" with the result, adding: "it would have broken my heart to see our United Kingdom come to an end and I know that this sentiment was shared not just by people across our country but also around the world".[441] While attending a public event later in September, Cameron told Michael Bloomberg, a former mayor of New York City, that the Queen had "purred down the line" when he informed her of the result.[442] Cameron admitted he was "very embarrassed" for revealing the Queen's political view, which she had guarded in her own comments.[442]
Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister and leader of the SNP, stated that he accepted the "verdict of the people" and called upon "all Scots to follow suit in accepting the democratic verdict of the people of Scotland". He called the referendum a "triumph for the democratic process and for participation in politics".[441] He also resigned as SNP leader and as First Minister, saying that "for me as leader my time is nearly over but for Scotland the campaign continues and the dream shall never die".[443]
Northern Ireland's First Minister Peter Robinson and Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones responded positively to the result. Robinson was "delighted Scotland has voted to remain in the Union".[441]
International reaction
There was a large international reaction to the results of the Scottish independence referendum.[444] The White House congratulated Scotland on their "full and energetic exercise of democracy".[445] President Barack Obama noted the "debate, discussion, and passionate yet peaceful deliberations"[445] and welcomed the result, saying he looked forward to "continuing our strong and special relationship with all the people of Great Britain and Northern Ireland".[444]
John Baird, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, welcomed the decision and praised the conduct of the referendum.[446] The Premier of Quebec, Philippe Couillard, said that there were limited comparisons between Scotland and Quebec, where the sovereignty movement lost referendums in 1980 and 1995, and suggested a devolved model similar to federalism as a possible future model for the UK: "I think that if the Scots had what we have, Quebecers within Canada, they probably would be quite happy".[446] Stéphane Bédard, leader of the Parti Québécois, described himself as "disappointed" by the result.[447]
Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, said that, "We [the German government] have always respected the fact that this referendum was called and that the central government in London agreed to this. And now we respect the outcome of it as well". When asked how she felt about the result she replied "I will not comment on this but just smile".[448] Matteo Renzi, Prime Minister of Italy, released a statement saying that "The Italian government, also in its capacity as duty president of the EU, hails the result of the vote democratically expressed by the Scottish people," he later sent a message to David Cameron where he said that Scotland "recognised and appreciated diversity" without "fragmenting".[449]
Ireland's Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, stated that the Irish government would respect the "democratic decision that Scotland should remain as part of the United Kingdom", he went on to say how "As neighbours, friends and partners across political, economic, cultural and many other spheres, relations between Ireland and Britain have never been stronger. We look forward to working with all parties across these islands in the years ahead. The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 is the historic template for harmonious and mutually beneficial development of the totality of relationships among the peoples of these islands. In particular, it has led to a transformation in relationships between the two great traditions on this island".[450]
In a press release following the referendum, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: "It is an understandable and logical desire of the Scottish people for the central authorities to guarantee respect for their national and cultural identity, language and traditions and also give them more independence to take decisions on Scotland's socio-economic development and its standing in the united state. We have noted that the UK government has extended concrete promises in this regard. We believe that these factors are extremely important not only for Scotland but also in the general context of devolution processes".[451]
Facing the result of the referendum, Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway, stated to Norwegian broadcaster NRK she was 'glad' Scotland chose to remain in the union and that Scottish independence could have become challenging for Norway as a neighbouring country.[452]
Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, in a video message, said that the Scottish have avoided serious consequences and "have chosen the most favourable option for everyone; for themselves, for all of Britain and for the rest of Europe".[453] Iñigo Urkullu, the President of the Basque Country, stated on the day of the referendum that as the British Government had allowed Scotland to freely decide its own future, the responsibility of the Basque government was to "follow Scotland's footsteps" in securing a similar agreement in Spain.[454] Artur Mas, President of the Generalitat of Catalonia, described the referendum as a model for a future vote in the Catalonia, and said "What happened in Scotland is not a setback for us, because what we really want in Catalonia is to have the chance to vote".[455] On the day after the Scottish referendum, the Catalan parliament voted to hold a "popular consultation" on Catalan independence.[456] The Spanish government said that such a vote would be unconstitutional,[456] but a referendum was held on 9 November 2014 anyway. The large majority (80%) voted for Catalonia to be an independent country, although two-thirds of Catalans did not participate in the referendum.[457]
Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that he fully respected "the choice that the people of Scotland have made".[444] President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso said the Scottish vote was good for a "united, open and stronger Europe".[458]
Allegations of voting irregularities
Ten voters discovered that someone had voted under their names at polling stations in Glasgow,[459] a method of fraud termed 'personation', and this led to an investigation by Police Scotland.[459]
During a BBC results broadcast, Scottish Conservative Party leader Ruth Davidson said that "No" campaigners had been "taking tallies" of postal votes and that those showed that the "No" campaign was in the lead.[460] This resulted in complaints to the Electoral Commission because the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 stated that people attending proceedings related to the receipt of postal votes must not attempt to ascertain the outcome or "communicate any information" from that voting.[460] The Electoral Commission, who could not investigate criminal allegations, passed the complaints onto Police Scotland.[460] A formal investigation was subsequently opened,[461] which concluded that there was no criminality.[462]
According to official Russian observers, the conditions under which the votes were counted were not up to international standards and that the procedure used made it impossible to check on irregularities.[463] Russia's criticism came just months after the international community had rejected the results of a Kremlin-backed referendum held in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory of Crimea.[463] Russian officials said that the strong performance of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at the 2015 UK general election confirmed their suspicions about the Scottish independence referendum.[464]
A petition demanding a second referendum, based on allegations of vote miscounting, gained more than 70,000 signatures within 24 hours. The petitioners referred to news footage that they claim showed unusual emptying of the boxes, a vote-counter placing Yes-votes between No-votes, an official filling in ballot papers, and Yes-votes on top of stacks placed on No-votes sorting tables, as well as two false fire-alarms and subsequent evacuation of the counting centre in Dundee.[465][466] In response, Chief Counting Officer Mary Pitcaithly declared that the referendum had been "properly conducted". An official spokesperson reiterated this point, saying that they were "satisfied that all counts throughout Scotland were properly conducted" and that incidents in the footage could be "easily explained" and were being presented as a "'conspiracy' theory".[467] Douglas Daniel, a monitoring agent for the pro-independence Wings Over Scotland website, noted that "as with most conspiracy theories, this is largely down to people not understanding what they're seeing" and "trying to fix the count would require pretty much every single member of the counting staff to be in on the scam".[468]
Violence in Glasgow
On the night of 19 September, hundreds of unionists arrived to celebrate the 'No' vote and some attacked independence supporters who had gathered in George Square, Glasgow.[469][470] Many of the unionists waved Union Jacks or loyalist flags and chanted "Rule, Britannia!"[469] Some appeared to make Nazi salutes and shouted racist abuse.[469][470] Police officers were drafted in to separate the groups but some unionists broke through police lines.[469] A number of people were reportedly beaten and bottles were thrown.[471] A press photographer told The Scotsman he saw people being "kicked about" and was forced to flee after being threatened.[471] By the end of the following month, the police had made 32 arrests in relation to the events.[472] The violence was condemned by politicians from both the 'Yes' and 'No' camps.[471]
Increase in political activism
In the weeks following the referendum, thousands of people joined the Scottish National Party, the Scottish Green Party[473] or the Scottish Socialist Party, which had all campaigned for a 'Yes' vote.[474][475] The parties claimed that many of the new members were former Scottish Labour Party members.[474] By 2 October 2014, SNP membership had tripled from 25,000 to 75,000 people, overtaking the Liberal Democrats as the third-largest political party in the UK.[476] Conservative MP David Mundell said that 80,000 people had signed up to their "Friends of the Union" group during the campaign.[475] These people had not necessarily become full members of the Conservative Party because they were not focused on increasing the number of "card-carrying" members.[475]
Following the referendum, there were calls for greater unity within Scottish unionism and to vote tactically against nationalist candidates.[477][478] A grassroots campaign called "Scotland in Union" aimed to encourage tactical voting at the 2015 UK general election and to publicise the benefits of Scotland being a part of the United Kingdom.[479][480] Analysis by the Electoral Reform Society prior to the 2015 general election identified some constituencies where tactical voting could succeed, but also pointed out that many voters would find it difficult to support another political party.[481] Writing after the election, Professor John Curtice said that in only one constituency, (Edinburgh South); could it be said that tactical voting succeeded in defeating an SNP candidate.[482]
Further devolution
Two days before the referendum, the leaders of the three main UK political parties publicly pledged to devolve "extensive new powers" to the Scottish Parliament.[483] They also agreed to a timetable proposed by Gordon Brown.[484] In his speech responding to the referendum results, David Cameron said that an all-party commission, chaired by Lord Smith of Kelvin, would oversee the implementation of the new powers.[483][484] Cameron also called for an answer to the West Lothian question, by removing the right of Scottish MPs to vote on legislation relating only to England.[485] This proposal was opposed by Gordon Brown, who signed a petition calling for the additional powers to be devolved without any other conditions being attached.[485]
The proposals were debated at length by the UK and Scottish parliaments.[486] The bill devolving further powers to Scotland was passed unanimously by the Scottish Parliament in March 2016.[486]
Political developments
After the referendum, the SNP took a clear lead over the other parties in Scottish opinion polls.[487][488] In the 2015 United Kingdom general election, the SNP received 1,454,436 votes, 50.0% of the Scottish vote and 56 out of the 59 Scottish seats contested in the election. Labour lost forty of their forty-one seats and the Liberal Democrats lost ten of their eleven seats – all to the SNP.[489][490] The SNP replaced the Liberal Democrats as the third largest party in the House of Commons.[491]
As the Conservatives won an overall majority in the 2015 UK general election, a UK-wide referendum on European Union membership was held in June 2016. An overall majority of the UK voted to leave the EU (for "Brexit"), while all of Scotland's council areas voted to remain in the EU. Shortly afterwards, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to prepare legislation for a second independence referendum.[492][493] In the June 2017 UK general election, the first major electoral test after the EU referendum, the SNP won 35 of the 59 Scottish seats in the House of Commons. This represented a drop of 21 seats from 2015, with the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats all making gains. Those results were largely reversed in the December 2019 UK general election, as the SNP won 48 seats and the Conservatives and Labour both made net losses.[494]
Otras lecturas
- Tom Devine, (2012) The Scottish Nation: A Modern History, Penguin UK ISBN 978-0-718193-20-1
- David Torrance, (2013) The Battle for Britain: Scotland and the Independence Referendum, Biteback PublishingISBN 978-1-849545-94-5
- Iain MacWhirter, (2013) Road to Referendum, Cargo Publishing ISBN 978-1908885210
- James Foley and Pete Ramard, (2014) Yes: The Radical Case for Scottish Independence, Pluto PressISBN 978-0-745334-75-2
- Alan Cochrane and George Kerevan, (2014) Scottish Independence: Yes or No (The Great Debate), The History Press ISBN 978-0-750955-83-6
- Iain MacWhirter, (2014) Disunited Kingdom: How Westminster Won A Referendum But Lost Scotland, Cargo Publishing ISBN 978-1-908885-26-5
- Gerry Hassan, (2014) Caledonian Dreaming: The Quest for a Different Scotland, Luath Press ISBN 978-1-910021-06-4
- Pat Anderson, (2014) Fear and Smear: The Campaign Against Scottish Independence, Snowy Publications ISBN 978-1507716489
- Joe Pike, (2016) Project Fear: How an Unlikely Alliance Left a Kingdom United but a Country Divided, Publisher ISBN 978-1-785900-51-8
- Gerry Hassan, (2016) Scotland the Bold: How our nation has changed and why there is no going back, Freight Publishing ISBN 978-1-911332-04-6
- Tom Devine, (2017) Independence or Union: Scotland's Past and Scotland's Present, Penguin UKISBN 978-0-141981-57-4
- Jack Foster, (2018) Catch-2014: Why 'Yes' lost the referendum and why, if we're not careful, we might end up doing it again, Independent ISBN 978-1-724106-95-7
Ver también
- Constitution of the United Kingdom
- History of Scottish devolution
- History of the Scottish National Party
- Politics of the United Kingdom
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enlaces externos
- Scottish Government Referendum 2014 site
- UK Government Referendum 2014 site
- Scottish Independence Referendum Bill from the Scottish Parliament
- Text of the Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 as in force today (including any amendments) within the United Kingdom, from legislation.gov.uk.
- Scotland Decides on stv.tv
- BBC Q&A
- Yes Scotland, official campaign for a Yes vote
- Better Together, official campaign for a No vote Archived 1 September 2014 at the Wayback Machine