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La elección presidencial de los Estados Unidos de 2020 fue la 59ª elección presidencial cuadrienal , celebrada el martes 3 de noviembre de 2020. [a] La candidatura del Partido Demócrata del ex vicepresidente Joe Biden y la actual senadora de los Estados Unidos por California Kamala Harris derrotó a la candidatura del Partido Republicano del titular el presidente Donald Trump y el vicepresidente Mike Pence . [6] Trump se convirtió en el primer presidente de Estados Unidos desde George HW Bush en 1992y el undécimo presidente en ejercicio en la historia del país en perder una candidatura para un segundo mandato. El 51,3% del voto popular de Biden fue también el mayor porcentaje del voto popular ganado por cualquier rival a un presidente en ejercicio desde 1932 . [7] [8] [9] La elección vio la mayor participación de votantes desde 1900 , [10] con cada una de las dos entradas principales recibiendo más de 74 millones de votos, superando el récord de Barack Obama de 69,5 millones de votos de 2008 . Biden recibió más de 81 millones de votos, [11] la mayor cantidad de votos jamás emitidos para un candidato en una elección presidencial de Estados Unidos . [12]Las agencias federales que supervisan la seguridad electoral dijeron que era la más segura en la historia de Estados Unidos. [13] [14] [15]

Biden aseguró la nominación demócrata sobre su rival más cercano, el senador Bernie Sanders , en una primaria competitiva que contó con el campo más grande de candidatos para cualquier partido político en la era moderna de la política estadounidense . La compañera de fórmula de Biden, la senadora Kamala Harris de California, se convirtió en la primera mujer afroamericana , la primera asiática estadounidense y la tercera candidata a vicepresidente femenina [c] en una lista de partidos importantes. Jo Jorgensen aseguró la nominación Libertaria con Spike Cohen como su compañero de fórmula, y Howie Hawkins aseguró la nominación Verdecon Angela Nicole Walker como compañera de fórmula. Los temas centrales de la elección incluyeron los impactos económicos y de salud pública de la pandemia de COVID-19 en curso ; La conducta y el temperamento personal del presidente Trump mientras estuvo en el cargo; disturbios civiles como reacción al asesinato de George Floyd y otros; la Corte Suprema de Estados Unidos tras la muerte de Ruth Bader Ginsburg y la confirmación de Amy Coney Barrett ; y el futuro de la Ley del Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio . [16] [17] [18]

La elección vio un número récord de votos emitidos anticipadamente y por correo debido a la pandemia en curso. [19] Muchos más demócratas votaron por correo en comparación con los republicanos. [20] Como resultado de una gran cantidad de boletas electorales por correo, algunos estados indecisos vieron retrasos en el conteo y la presentación de informes de votos; Esto llevó a los principales medios de comunicación a retrasar su proyección de Biden y Harris como presidente electo y vicepresidente electo.hasta la mañana del 7 de noviembre; tres días y medio después de las elecciones. Las principales redes de medios proyectan un estado para un candidato una vez que existe una alta confianza matemática de que es poco probable que el voto pendiente evite que el ganador proyectado finalmente gane ese estado. [21]

Antes, durante y después del día de las elecciones, Trump y numerosos republicanos intentaron subvertir las elecciones y anular los resultados , alegando un fraude electoral generalizado e intentando influir en el proceso de recuento de votos en los estados indecisos. [22] [23] [24] El fiscal general William Barr y los funcionarios de cada uno de los 50 estados no encontraron evidencia de fraude generalizado o irregularidades en la elección. [25] [26] La campaña de Trump y sus aliados, incluidos los miembros republicanos del Congreso , [27] continuaron participando en numerosos intentos de anular los resultados de las elecciones mediante la presentación de 86 demandas.en varios estados con todos los casos menores excepto uno (que luego fue anulado) siendo retirados o desestimados por varios tribunales, [28] [29] [30] difundiendo teorías de conspiración que alegan fraude, [31] presionando a los electores y legisladores estatales republicanos, [32 ] objetando la certificación del Colegio Electoral en el Congreso, [33] [34] incitando a la insurrección en el Capitolio de los Estados Unidos , [35] y negándose a cooperar con la transición presidencial de Joe Biden en lo que fue descrito como un intento de golpe . [36] Trump declaró que nunca concedería las elecciones.[37] [38] [39] El 7 de enero de 2021, un día después del violento asalto al Capitolio por partidarios de Trump y dos meses después de que se declarara la victoria de Biden, Trump reconoció a la administración entrante sin mencionar el nombre de Biden en un video publicado en Twitter . [40] [41] [42]

Los resultados de las elecciones en cada estado y el Distrito de Columbia fueron certificados el 9 de diciembre. [43] Los electores presidenciales emitieron formalmente sus votos para presidente y vicepresidente el 14 de diciembre, [44] [45] y sus votos fueron contados oficialmente por el Congreso. del 6 al 7 de enero de 2021, antes y después de que los insurrectos pro-Trump irrumpieran en el Capitolio . [46] [47] Biden y Harris tomaron posesión el 20 de enero de 2021 .

Fondo

Procedimiento

El artículo dos de la Constitución de los Estados Unidos establece que para que una persona sirva como presidente, el individuo debe ser ciudadano natural de los Estados Unidos , tener al menos 35 años de edad y haber sido residente de los Estados Unidos durante al menos 14 años. . Los candidatos a la presidencia generalmente buscan la nominación de uno de los varios partidos políticos de los Estados Unidos. Cada partido desarrolla un método (como una elección primaria ) para elegir al candidato que el partido considere más adecuado para postularse para el puesto. Las elecciones primarias suelen ser elecciones indirectas.donde los votantes votan por una lista de delegados de partido comprometidos con un candidato en particular. Los delegados del partido luego nominan oficialmente a un candidato para que se postule en nombre del partido. El candidato presidencial normalmente elige un vicepresidente compañero de fórmula para formar de ese partido billete , que luego es ratificado por los delegados en la convención del partido (con la excepción del Partido Libertario , que designa su candidato a vicepresidente por el voto de los delegados, independientemente de la presidencia preferencia del nominado). La elección general de noviembre también es una elección indirecta, en la que los votantes emiten sus votos por una lista de miembros del Colegio Electoral ; estos electores luego eligen directamente al presidente y al vicepresidente.[48] Si ningún candidato recibe el mínimo de 270 votos electorales necesarios para ganar la elección , la Cámara de Representantes de los Estados Unidos seleccionará al presidente entre los tres candidatos que recibieron la mayor cantidad de votos electorales, y el Senado de los Estados Unidos seleccionará al vicepresidente de los candidatos que recibieron los dos totales más altos. Las elecciones presidenciales se llevaron a cabo simultáneamente con las elecciones para la Cámara de Representantes , el Senado y varias elecciones a nivel estatal y local . [46]

La Legislatura de Maine aprobó un proyecto de ley en agosto de 2019 que adopta la votación por orden de preferencia (RCV) tanto para las primarias presidenciales como para las elecciones generales. [49] [50] La gobernadora Janet Mills permitió que el proyecto de ley se convirtiera en ley sin su firma, lo que retrasó su entrada en vigor hasta después de las primarias demócratas de 2020 en marzo, pero convirtió a Maine en el primer estado en utilizar RCV para una elección general presidencial. El Partido Republicano de Maine presentó firmas para un referéndum con veto y excluye el uso de RCV para las elecciones de 2020, pero el Secretario de Estado Matthew Dunlapencontró que no había suficientes firmas válidas para calificar para la boleta. Una impugnación en la Corte Superior de Maine tuvo éxito para el Partido Republicano de Maine, pero la Corte Judicial Suprema de Maine [51] [52] suspendió el fallo pendiente de apelación el  8 de septiembre de 2020. [53] Sin embargo, las boletas comenzaron a imprimirse más tarde ese día sin el referéndum con veto e incluyendo RCV para la elección presidencial, [54] [55] y la Corte falló a favor del Secretario de Estado el 22 de septiembre, permitiendo el uso de RCV. [56] El 6 de octubre se denegó un recurso de emergencia ante la Corte Suprema  . [57]La implementación de RCV podría potencialmente retrasar la proyección del ganador (es) de los votos electorales de Maine durante días después del día de las elecciones [58] y puede complicar la interpretación del voto popular nacional . [59] La ley continúa el uso del método de distrito del Congreso para la asignación de electores de Maine ( Nebraska es el único otro estado que distribuye sus votos electorales de esta manera). [60]

El 14 de diciembre de 2020, los electores comprometidos para cada candidato, conocidos colectivamente como el Colegio Electoral de los Estados Unidos , se reunieron en las capitales de sus estados para emitir sus votos oficiales. De conformidad con los procesos establecidos por la Ley de Conteo Electoral de 1887, los certificados de verificación que enumeran los nombres de los electores y los certificados separados que registran sus votos se distribuyen a varios funcionarios de las ramas del gobierno. [61] [62] [63] El Congreso recién electo, con el Vicepresidente en su rol de Presidente del Senado presidiendo, se reunió en sesión conjunta para abrir formalmente los certificados y contar los votos, que comenzó el 6 de enero de 2021, fue interrumpido por elasalto del edificio del Capitolio , y terminó al día siguiente. [64]

Elecciones simultáneas

La elección presidencial se produjo simultáneamente con las elecciones al Senado y la Cámara de Representantes . También se celebraron elecciones para gobernador y legislativas en varios estados. Para las elecciones posteriores, la Cámara de los Estados Unidos redistribuirá los escaños entre los 50 estados según los resultados del Censo de los Estados Unidos de 2020 , y los estados llevarán a cabo una redistribución de distritos legislativos estatales y del Congreso. En la mayoría de los estados, el gobernador y la legislatura estatal llevan a cabo la redistribución de distritos, aunque algunos estados tienen comisiones de redistribución . A menudo, un partido que gana una elección presidencial experimenta un efecto de cola de abrigoeso también ayuda a otros candidatos de ese partido a ganar elecciones. [65] Por lo tanto, el partido que gane las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 también podría obtener una ventaja significativa al trazar nuevos distritos legislativos estatales y del Congreso que permanecerían en vigor hasta las elecciones de 2032. [66]

Nominaciones

partido Democrático

Joe Biden se convirtió en el presunto nominado del Partido Demócrata el 5 de junio de 2020, cuando obtuvo suficientes delegados para asegurar su nominación en la convención nacional. [67] Fue nominado formalmente en la convención el 18 de agosto. [68]

partido Republicano

Un presidente en ejercicio que se postule para la reelección casi siempre tendrá la nominación. Donald Trump y su compañero de fórmula Mike Pence pudieron asegurar la nominación fácilmente después de recibir suficientes delegados en las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2020 . [69] [70]

Partido Libertario

Jo Jorgensen , quien fue compañera de fórmula del autor Harry Browne en 1996 , recibió la nominación libertaria en la convención nacional el 23 de mayo de 2020. [71] Logró acceso a las boletas electorales en los 50 estados y el Distrito de Columbia. [72]

Fiesta verde

Howie Hawkins se convirtió en el presunto nominado del Partido Verde el 21 de junio de 2020 y fue nominado oficialmente por el partido el 11 de julio de 2020. [73] [74] Hawkins aseguró el acceso a la boleta electoral a 381 votos electorales y el acceso por escrito a 130 votos electorales. [75] [d]

Campañas electorales generales

Acceso a la boleta

Convenciones de fiesta

Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Charlotte
Charlotte
Virtual
Virtual
Virtual
Virtual
  partido Democrático
  partido Republicano
  Partido Libertario (virtual)
  Fiesta Verde (virtual)

La Convención Nacional Demócrata de 2020 estaba programada originalmente para el 13 al 16 de julio en Milwaukee , Wisconsin , [78] [79] [80] pero se retrasó hasta el 17 al 20 de agosto debido a los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19 . [81] El 24 de junio de 2020, se anunció que la convención se llevaría a cabo en un formato mixto en línea y en persona, con la mayoría de los delegados asistiendo de forma remota pero algunos aún asistiendo al sitio físico de la convención. [82] El 5 de agosto, la parte en persona de la convención se redujo aún más, con importantes discursos, incluido el de Biden, que se cambió a un formato virtual. [83]

La Convención Nacional Republicana de 2020 se llevó a cabo del 24 al 27 de agosto en Charlotte, Carolina del Norte y varios lugares remotos. Originalmente, se planeó llevar a cabo una convención de tres días en Carolina del Norte, pero debido a la insistencia de Carolina del Norte de que la convención siguiera las reglas de distanciamiento social de COVID-19, los discursos y celebraciones se trasladaron a Jacksonville, Florida (los asuntos oficiales de la convención aún eran contractuales obligada a realizarse en Charlotte). [84] [85] Sin embargo, debido al empeoramiento de la situación con respecto al COVID-19 en Florida, los planes allí fueron cancelados y la convención se trasladó de regreso a Charlotte en una capacidad reducida. [86]

La Convención Nacional Libertaria de 2020 estaba programada originalmente para celebrarse en Austin, Texas , durante el fin de semana del Día de los Caídos del 22 al 25 de mayo, [87] [88] pero todas las reservaciones en el JW Marriott Downtown Austin para la convención se cancelaron el 26 de abril debido a la pandemia de COVID-19. [89] Finalmente, el Comité Nacional Libertario decidió que el partido celebraría dos convenciones, una en línea del 22 al 24 de mayo para seleccionar a los candidatos presidenciales y vicepresidenciales y otra en una convención física en Orlando, Florida , a partir del 8 de julio. –12 para otros asuntos. [90]

La Convención Nacional Verde 2020 iba a celebrarse originalmente en Detroit , Michigan , del 9 al 12 de julio. [80] Debido a la pandemia de COVID-19, la convención se llevó a cabo en línea, sin cambios de fecha. [91]

Problemas exclusivos de la elección

El proceso de destitución

La Cámara de Representantes votó para acusar a Trump por dos cargos el 18 de diciembre de 2019. [92] El juicio en el Senado comenzó el 21 de enero de 2020 [93] y terminó el 5 de febrero, lo que resultó en la absolución del Senado de los Estados Unidos . [94]

Esta es la segunda vez que un presidente es acusado durante su primer mandato mientras se postula para un segundo mandato. [95] [h] Trump continuó realizando mítines de campaña durante el juicio político. [97] [98] Esta es también la primera vez desde que se establecieron las primarias presidenciales modernas en 1911 que un presidente ha sido sometido a juicio político mientras la temporada de primarias estaba en curso. [99] El proceso de acusación se superpuso con las campañas primarias, lo que obligó a los senadores que se postulaban para la nominación demócrata a permanecer en Washington para el juicio en los días anteriores y posteriores a las asambleas de Iowa. [100] [101]

Efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19

Estados con al menos una fecha de elección primaria local, estatal o federal o método de votación alterado a partir del 5 de agosto de 2020.

Varios eventos relacionados con las elecciones presidenciales de 2020 fueron alterados o pospuestos debido a la pandemia de COVID-19 en curso en el país y sus efectos, como la orden de quedarse en casa y las pautas de distanciamiento social de los gobiernos locales. El 10 de marzo, luego de las elecciones primarias en seis estados, los candidatos demócratas Joe Biden y Bernie Sanders cancelaron los eventos nocturnos de campaña planificados y más campañas en persona y mítines de campaña. [102] [103] El 12 de marzo, Trump también declaró su intención de posponer más manifestaciones de campaña. [104] El undécimo debate demócrata se celebró el 15 de marzo sin audiencia en los estudios de CNN en Washington, DC [105]Varios estados también pospusieron sus primarias para una fecha posterior, incluidos Georgia, [106] Kentucky, [107] Luisiana, [108] Ohio, [109] y Maryland. [110] A partir del 24 de marzo de 2020, todos los candidatos presidenciales de los principales partidos habían detenido las campañas en persona y los mítines de campaña por las preocupaciones del COVID-19. Los analistas políticos especularon en ese momento que la moratoria de las campañas tradicionales, junto con los efectos de la pandemia en la nación, podrían tener efectos impredecibles en la población votante y, posiblemente, en cómo se llevarán a cabo las elecciones. [111] [112] [113]

Un trabajador electoral desinfecta una cabina electoral en Davis, California

Algunas elecciones primarias presidenciales se vieron gravemente interrumpidas por problemas relacionados con COVID-19, incluidas las largas filas en los lugares de votación, un gran aumento de solicitudes de boletas de voto en ausencia y problemas de tecnología. [114] El número de lugares de votación a menudo se redujo considerablemente debido a la escasez de trabajadores electorales capaces o dispuestos a trabajar durante la pandemia. La mayoría de los estados expandieron o alentaron la votación por correo como alternativa, pero muchos votantes se quejaron de que nunca recibieron las boletas de voto ausente que habían solicitado. [115]

La Ley de Ayuda, Alivio y Seguridad Económica por el Coronavirus de marzo de 2020 incluyó dinero para que los estados aumenten la votación por correo. En mayo, Trump y su campaña se opusieron firmemente a la votación por correo, alegando que causaría un fraude electoral generalizado, una creencia que ha sido desacreditada por varios medios de comunicación. [116] [117] La respuesta del gobierno al impacto de la pandemia de la administración Trump, junto con las diferentes posiciones tomadas por los demócratas y republicanos del Congreso con respecto al estímulo económico se convirtió en un tema de campaña importante para ambos partidos. [118] [119]

El 6 de abril, la Corte Suprema y los republicanos de la legislatura estatal de Wisconsin rechazaron la solicitud del gobernador de Wisconsin, Tony Evers , de trasladar las elecciones estatales de primavera a junio. Como resultado, las elecciones, que incluyeron una primaria presidencial, se llevaron a cabo el 7 de abril como estaba previsto. [120] Al menos siete nuevos casos de COVID-19 se rastrearon hasta esta elección. Los defensores del derecho al voto expresaron temor de un caos similar a escala nacional en noviembre, y recomendaron a los estados que se movieran para expandir las opciones de voto por correo. [121]

El 20 de junio de 2020, la campaña de Trump llevó a cabo un mitin en persona en Tulsa, Oklahoma , luego de que la Corte Suprema de Oklahoma dictaminó que el evento podría continuar a pesar de las continuas preocupaciones sobre COVID-19. [122] La asistencia a la manifestación fue mucho menor de lo esperado, y se describió como un "fracaso", lo que llevó a un empeoramiento significativo de las relaciones entre Trump y su director de campaña Brad Parscale . [123] 7.7 millones de personas vieron el evento en Fox News, un récord de audiencia los sábados para ese canal. [124] Tres semanas después de la manifestación, el Departamento de Salud del Estado de Oklahoma registró un número récord de casos de COVID-19, [125] y el ex candidato presidencial republicano Herman Cainmurió a causa del virus, aunque no se confirmó que contrajo la enfermedad debido a su asistencia al mitin. [126]

El 2 de octubre de 2020, Trump y la primera dama Melania Trump dieron positivo por SARS-CoV-2 luego de una prueba positiva de su asesora principal Hope Hicks , como parte de un brote más grande de COVID-19 entre el personal de la Casa Blanca . Tanto el presidente como la primera dama entraron inmediatamente en cuarentena, lo que impidió que Trump hiciera más campaña, especialmente en los mítines de campaña. [127] [128] [129] Más tarde ese mismo día, el presidente fue admitido en el Centro Médico Militar Nacional Walter Reed con fiebre baja, donde se informó que había recibido un tratamiento experimental con anticuerpos. [130] [131]El diagnóstico de Trump se produjo solo dos días después de que compartiera el escenario con Joe Biden en el primer debate presidencial. Esto llevó a la preocupación de que Biden pudiera haber contraído el virus de Trump; sin embargo, Biden dio negativo. [132] [133] Trump fue dado de alta del hospital el 5 de octubre. [134]

El diagnóstico de Trump con COVID-19 fue ampliamente visto como un efecto negativo en su campaña y volvió a desviar la atención del público hacia el COVID-19, un problema que generalmente se considera un lastre para Trump, debido a su respuesta al COVID. -19 pandemia que sufre de bajos índices de aprobación. [135] [136] Estar en cuarentena también significó que Trump no pudo asistir a los mítines, que fueron una parte importante de su campaña. Como resultado de la contratación de Trump de COVID-19, Biden continuó haciendo campaña, pero dejó temporalmente de publicar anuncios de ataques contra él. [137] [138] Trump reanudó las manifestaciones en persona el 12 de octubre, una semana después de su alta del hospital. [134]Trump continuó viajando a estados de batalla y realizando manifestaciones masivas, a veces dos o tres al día. Sus mítines han sido criticados por su falta de distanciamiento social o por el uso de máscaras, y algunas encuestas sugieren que los votantes lo ven menos favorablemente por poner en peligro a los asistentes. [139] [140]

Interferencia extranjera

Los funcionarios estadounidenses han acusado a Rusia , China e Irán de intentar influir en las elecciones estadounidenses de 2020. [141] [142] El 4 de octubre de 2019, Microsoft anunció que "Phosphorus", un grupo de piratas informáticos vinculados al gobierno iraní , había intentado comprometer cuentas de correo electrónico pertenecientes a periodistas, funcionarios del gobierno de EE. UU. Y la campaña de un gobierno de EE. UU. candidato presidencial. [143] [144] La Voz de Américainformó en abril de 2020 que "los investigadores de seguridad de Internet dicen que ya ha habido señales de que los piratas informáticos aliados de China se han involucrado en los llamados ataques de 'spear-phishing' contra objetivos políticos estadounidenses antes de la votación de 2020". El portavoz chino Geng Shuang negó las acusaciones y dijo que "esperaría que el pueblo estadounidense no arrastre a China a su política electoral". [145]

El 13 de febrero de 2020, los funcionarios de inteligencia estadounidenses informaron a los miembros del Comité de Inteligencia de la Cámara que Rusia estaba interfiriendo en las elecciones de 2020 en un esfuerzo por lograr la reelección de Trump. [146] [147] El informe fue presentado por Shelby Pierson , el principal funcionario de seguridad electoral de la comunidad de inteligencia y asistente del director interino de Inteligencia Nacional, Joseph Maguire . El 21 de febrero, The Washington Post informó que, según funcionarios estadounidenses no identificados, Rusia estaba interfiriendo en las primarias demócratas en un esfuerzo por apoyar la nominación del senador Bernie Sanders.. Sanders emitió una declaración después del informe de noticias, diciendo en parte: "No me importa, francamente, quién quiere Putin como presidente. Mi mensaje para Putin es claro: no participe en las elecciones estadounidenses y, como presidente, me aseguraré de eso que haces." [148] Sanders reconoció que su campaña fue informada sobre los supuestos esfuerzos de Rusia aproximadamente un mes antes. [149] En una sesión informativa de febrero de 2020 para el Comité de Inteligencia de la Cámara, los funcionarios de inteligencia de Estados Unidos advirtieron al Congreso que Rusia estaba interfiriendo en la campaña de 2020 para apoyar la campaña de reelección de Trump; Trump estaba enojado porque el Congreso había sido informado de la amenaza, y el día después de la sesión informativa criticó al director interino de inteligencia nacional, Joseph Maguire , por permitir que la sesión informara siguiera adelante.[150] [151] China y algunos individuos chinos vinculados al gobierno han sido acusados ​​de interferir en las elecciones para apoyar la candidatura tanto de Biden como de Trump, [152] aunque si realmente lo está haciendo se discute entre la comunidad de inteligencia. [151] [153]

El 21 de octubre, se enviaron correos electrónicos amenazantes a demócratas en al menos cuatro estados. Los correos electrónicos advirtieron que "Votarás por Trump el día de las elecciones o te perseguiremos". [154] El director de Inteligencia Nacional, John Ratcliffe, anunció esa noche que Irán había enviado los correos electrónicos, utilizando una dirección de retorno falsa. Añadió que se sabe que tanto Irán como Rusia han obtenido datos de registro de votantes estadounidenses, posiblemente de información disponible públicamente, y que "estos datos pueden ser utilizados por actores extranjeros para intentar comunicar información falsa a los votantes registrados que esperan que cause confusión". sembrar el caos y socavar su confianza en la democracia estadounidense ". Un portavoz de Irán negó la acusación. [155]En su anuncio, Ratcliffe dijo que la intención de Irán había sido "intimidar a los votantes, incitar el malestar social y dañar al presidente Trump", planteando interrogantes sobre cómo ordenar a los demócratas votar por Trump sería perjudicial para Trump. Más tarde se informó que la referencia a Trump no había estado en los comentarios preparados por Ratcliffe como los firmaron los otros funcionarios en el escenario, pero que lo agregó por su cuenta. [156]

A lo largo del período electoral, varios legisladores colombianos y el embajador de Colombia en Estados Unidos emitieron declaraciones apoyando la campaña de Donald Trump, que ha sido vista como potencialmente dañina para las relaciones entre Colombia y Estados Unidos . [157] [158] El 26 de octubre, el embajador de Estados Unidos en Colombia, Philip Goldberg , solicitó que los políticos colombianos se abstuvieran de involucrarse en las elecciones. [159]

El Departamento de Justicia está investigando si el Comité de la Victoria de Trump aceptó una donación de 100.000 dólares del empresario malayo y fugitivo internacional Jho Low , acusado de ser el cerebro detrás del escándalo multimillonario 1Malaysia Development Berhad que involucra a un fondo soberano de Malasia, 1MDB . [160] [161]

Los funcionarios del gobierno y los oficiales de seguridad corporativa estadounidenses se prepararon para una repetición del pirateo de la infraestructura electoral de 2016 y ataques similares del siglo XXI , y de hecho llevaron a cabo lo que se caracterizó como contraataques preventivos contra la infraestructura de la botnet que podrían usarse en una coordinación a gran escala de piratería, [162] y algunos incidentes a principios de año parecían presagiar tales posibilidades. No obstante, después de su despido , en una entrevista de diciembre de 2020, Chris Krebs , director de la Agencia de Seguridad de Infraestructura y Ciberseguridad de la administración Trump.(CISA), describió el monitoreo del Día de las Elecciones desde el centro de comando conjunto de CISA junto con representantes del Comando Cibernético de los Estados Unidos , la Agencia de Seguridad Nacional (NSA), la Oficina Federal de Investigaciones (FBI), el Servicio Secreto de los Estados Unidos (USSS), la Comisión de Asistencia Electoral (EAC), representantes de proveedores de equipos de máquinas de votación y representantes de gobiernos estatales y locales, así como el análisis de su agencia antes y después de ese día, diciendo: "Todo estaba tranquilo. No había indicios o pruebas de que hubiera algún tipo de piratería o compromiso de los sistemas electorales el 3 de noviembre, antes o después". [163] Respondiendo a las falsas afirmaciones de la subcontratación extranjera del recuento de votos como justificación del litigio que intenta detener el recuento oficial de votos en algunas áreas, Krebs también afirmó que, "Todos los votos en los Estados Unidos de América se cuentan en los Estados Unidos de América . " [163]

Actos de interferencia extranjera incluyen la aplicación dirigida por el Estado ruso de la propaganda computacional enfoques más convencionales patrocinada por el estado de propaganda internet , los esfuerzos de desinformación de menor escala , " lavado de la información " y " comercio en la cadena de " tácticas de propaganda que emplean algunos funcionarios del gobierno, los afiliados Trump, y medios de comunicación estadounidenses . [164]

El potencial rechazo de Trump a los resultados electorales

Durante la campaña, Trump indicó en publicaciones de Twitter , entrevistas y discursos que podría negarse a reconocer el resultado de las elecciones si era derrotado; Trump sugirió falsamente que las elecciones serían amañadas en su contra. [165] [166] [167] En julio de 2020, Trump se negó a responder si aceptaría los resultados y le dijo al presentador de Fox News, Chris Wallace, que "tengo que ver. No, no voy a decir simplemente que sí. no voy a decir que no ". [168] [169] [170] Trump afirmó en repetidas ocasiones que "la única forma" en que podría perder sería si las elecciones fueran "manipuladas" y se negaron repetidamente a comprometerse con una transición pacífica del poder.después de la elección. [171] [172] Trump también atacó la votación por correo a lo largo de la campaña, afirmando falsamente que la práctica contiene altas tasas de fraude; [173] [174] [175] en un momento, Trump dijo: "Veremos qué pasa ... Deshágase de las boletas y tendrá una muy pacífica; no habrá una transferencia, francamente. Habrá una continuación ". [176] Las declaraciones de Trump han sido descritas como una amenaza "para cambiar el orden constitucional". [177] En septiembre de 2020, el director del FBI, Christopher A. Wray, quien fue designado por Trump, testificó bajo juramento que el FBI "no ha visto, históricamente, ningún tipo de esfuerzo coordinado de fraude electoral nacional en una elección importante, ya sea por correo o de otro modo". [178]

Varios republicanos del Congreso insistieron en que estaban comprometidos con una transición de poder ordenada y pacífica, pero se negaron a criticar a Trump por sus comentarios. [179] El 24 de septiembre, el Senado aprobó por unanimidad una resolución que afirma el compromiso del Senado con una transferencia pacífica del poder. [180] Trump también ha declarado que esperaba que la Corte Suprema decidiera la elección y que quería una mayoría conservadora en caso de una disputa electoral, reiterando su compromiso de instalar rápidamente un noveno juez tras la muerte de Ruth Bader Ginsburg . [181]

Sugerencia de aplazamiento de elecciones

En abril de 2020, Biden sugirió que Trump podría intentar retrasar las elecciones, diciendo que Trump "va a tratar de retrasar las elecciones de alguna manera, pensar en alguna razón por la que no pueden celebrarse". [182] [183] El 30 de julio, Trump tuiteó que "Con la votación universal por correo (no la votación en ausencia, lo cual es bueno), 2020 será la elección más INEXACTA Y FRAUDULENTA de la historia" y preguntó si debería posponerse hasta las personas pueden emitir su voto en persona de manera segura. Los expertos han indicado que, para que la elección se retrase legalmente, esa decisión debe ser tomada por el Congreso . [184] [185]Varios expertos legales señalaron que la Constitución establece el final de los períodos presidencial y vicepresidencial para el 20 de enero, una fecha límite estricta que el Congreso no puede modificar excepto mediante una enmienda constitucional. [186] [187]

Voto postal

Gráfico de la encuesta de opinión de julio de 2020 sobre la probabilidad de votar por correo en las elecciones de noviembre, en comparación con 2016 [188]

El voto por correo en los Estados Unidos se ha vuelto cada vez más común, con el 25% de los votantes enviando sus boletas por correo en 2016 y 2018. Para junio de 2020, se predijo que la pandemia de COVID-19 causaría un gran aumento en el voto por correo debido al posible peligro de congregarse en los lugares de votación. [189] Un análisis estado por estado de agosto de 2020 concluyó que el 76% de los estadounidenses eran elegibles para votar por correo en 2020, una cifra récord. El análisis predijo que se podrían emitir 80 millones de boletas por correo en 2020, más del doble que en 2016. [190] El Servicio Postal envió una carta a varios estados en julio de 2020, advirtiendo que el servicio no podría cumplir con los requisitos. los plazos del estado para solicitar y emitir boletas de voto ausente de última hora. [191]Además del alto volumen previsto de papeletas enviadas por correo, la predicción se debió en parte a las numerosas medidas adoptadas por Louis DeJoy , el Director General de Correos de los Estados Unidos recién instalado , incluida la prohibición de las horas extraordinarias y los viajes adicionales para entregar el correo, [192] que causaron retrasos en entregar correo, [193] y desmantelar y retirar cientos de máquinas clasificadoras de correo de alta velocidad de los centros postales. [194]El 18 de agosto, después de que la Cámara de Representantes fuera retirada de su receso de agosto para votar un proyecto de ley que revirtiera los cambios, DeJoy anunció que revertiría todos los cambios hasta después de las elecciones de noviembre. Dijo que restablecería las horas extra, revertiría las reducciones del servicio y detendría la eliminación de las máquinas clasificadoras de correo y las cajas de recolección. [195]

La Cámara de Representantes votó una subvención de emergencia de $ 25 mil millones para la oficina de correos para facilitar la inundación prevista de boletas por correo. [196] Sin embargo, Trump ha denunciado repetidamente la votación por correo, a pesar de que él mismo vota por correo en Florida. [197] En agosto de 2020, Trump admitió que la oficina de correos necesitaría fondos adicionales para manejar la votación adicional por correo, pero dijo que bloquearía cualquier financiamiento adicional para la oficina de correos para evitar cualquier aumento en las votaciones por correo. [198]

La campaña de Trump presentó demandas que buscan bloquear el uso de buzones de votación oficiales en Pensilvania en lugares que no sean una oficina electoral, y también buscó "impedir que los funcionarios electorales cuenten las boletas por correo si un votante olvida poner su boleta por correo en una funda de confidencialidad dentro del sobre de devolución de la boleta ". [199] La campaña de Trump y el Partido Republicano no pudieron presentar ninguna evidencia de fraude de voto por correo después de que un juez federal les ordenó hacerlo. [199]

El día de las elecciones, un juez ordenó a los inspectores de correo que buscaran boletas en "instalaciones de correo en ... estados clave de batalla". [200] La agencia se negó a cumplir con la orden y casi el 7% de las boletas en las instalaciones del USPS el día de las elecciones no se procesaron a tiempo. [201]

Problemas de la Comisión Federal de Elecciones

La Comisión Federal de Elecciones , que se creó en 1974 para hacer cumplir las leyes de financiamiento de campañas en las elecciones federales, no ha funcionado desde julio de 2020 debido a las vacantes en la membresía. En ausencia de quórum, la comisión no puede votar sobre las quejas ni brindar orientación a través de opiniones consultivas. [202] Al 19 de mayo de 2020, había 350 asuntos pendientes en el expediente de ejecución de la agencia y 227 asuntos pendientes de acción. [203] Al 1 de septiembre de 2020, Trump no había nominado a nadie para cubrir las vacantes de la FEC. [204]

Vacante de la Corte Suprema

El presidente Donald Trump con Amy Coney Barrett y su familia, justo antes de que Barrett sea anunciado como nominado, 26 de septiembre de 2020

El 18 de septiembre de 2020 murió la jueza Ruth Bader Ginsburg . El líder de la mayoría en el Senado, Mitch McConnell, declaró inmediatamente que el precedente que sentó con respecto a la nominación de Merrick Garland era inoperante y que se votaría un reemplazo lo antes posible, preparando el escenario para una batalla de confirmación y una intrusión inesperada en la campaña. [205] La muerte del juez Ginsburg resultó en grandes aumentos en el impulso tanto para los demócratas como para los republicanos. [206] [207] El presidente, [208] vicepresidente, [209]y varios miembros republicanos del Congreso declararon que se necesitaba un banco completo de la Corte Suprema para decidir las próximas elecciones. [210] [211]

El 26 de septiembre, el día después de que el cuerpo del juez Ginsburg yaciera en el Capitolio , Trump celebró una ceremonia en el jardín de rosas en la Casa Blanca para anunciar y presentar a su candidata, Amy Coney Barrett . [212] Después de cuatro días de audiencias de confirmación, el Comité Judicial del Senado votó la nominación fuera del comité el 22 de octubre, [213] y el 26 de octubre, Barrett fue confirmado en una votación de 52 a 48, sin votos demócratas. para su confirmación. [214] Esta fue la confirmación de la Corte Suprema más cercana a una elección presidencial, y la primera nominación a la Corte Suprema desde 1869 sin votos de apoyo del partido minoritario. [214]También fue uno de los plazos más rápidos desde la nominación hasta las confirmaciones en la historia de Estados Unidos. [215] [216] Según una encuesta de Fox News , un tema de actualidad para los votantes es la protección del fallo de la Corte Suprema de Roe v. Wade , sobre la legalidad del aborto . [217]

Litigio preelectoral

Para septiembre de 2020, se habían presentado varios cientos de casos legales relacionados con la elección. [218] Aproximadamente 250 de ellos tenían que ver con la mecánica de la votación en relación con la pandemia de COVID-19. [218] La Corte Suprema se pronunció sobre varios de estos casos, [219] principalmente emitiendo estancias de emergencia en lugar de seguir el proceso normal debido a la urgencia. [220] En octubre de 2020, se especuló que la elección podría decidirse a través de un caso de la Corte Suprema, como sucedió después de las elecciones de 2000 . [221] [222]

Debates

Case Western Reserve University
Universidad Case Western Reserve
University of Utah
Universidad de Utah
Belmont University
Universidad de Belmont
Sitios de los debates de las elecciones generales de 2020

El 11 de octubre de 2019, la Comisión de Debates Presidenciales (CPD) anunció que en el otoño de 2020 se realizarían tres debates electorales generales [223].

El primero, moderado por Chris Wallace, tuvo lugar el 29 de septiembre y fue coanfitrión de la Case Western Reserve University y la Cleveland Clinic en Cleveland, Ohio . [224] El debate originalmente se iba a realizar en la Universidad de Notre Dame en Notre Dame, Indiana , pero la universidad decidió no celebrar el debate como resultado de la pandemia de COVID-19 . [224] [225] Se consideró que Biden ganó el primer debate, [226] [227] [228] con una minoría significativa de comentaristas que afirmaron que fue un empate. [229] [230]

Un cambio que se observó sobre todo cuando era Trump no lo hizo directamente denunciar la supremacía blanca y neofascista grupo Niños Proud , que se acopla de manera explícita en la violencia política , en lugar de responder que deben "paso atrás y estar junto." [231] [232] [233] Al día siguiente, Trump dijo a los reporteros que el grupo debería "retirarse" mientras también afirmaba que él no estaba al tanto de lo que era el grupo. [234] [235] El debate fue descrito como "caótico y casi incoherente" debido a las repetidas interrupciones de Trump, lo que hizo que el CPD considerara ajustes al formato de los debates restantes. [236]

El debate vicepresidencial se llevó a cabo el 7 de octubre de 2020 en la Universidad de Utah en Salt Lake City . [237] El debate se consideró en general moderado, sin un claro vencedor. [238] [239] Un incidente que fue particularmente comentado fue cuando una mosca aterrizó en la cabeza del vicepresidente Pence y permaneció allí sin que él lo supiera durante dos minutos. [240] [241]

El segundo debate estaba inicialmente programado para celebrarse en la Universidad de Michigan en Ann Arbor, Michigan , pero la universidad se retiró en junio de 2020, debido a preocupaciones sobre la pandemia de COVID-19 . [242] El debate planeado fue reprogramado para el 15 de octubre en el Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts en Miami , pero debido a que Trump contrajo COVID-19 el CPD anunció el 8 de octubre que el debate se realizaría virtualmente, en el que los candidatos aparecen desde ubicaciones separadas. Sin embargo, Trump se negó a participar en un debate virtual y la comisión anunció posteriormente que el debate había sido cancelado. [243] [244]

El tercer debate programado tuvo lugar el 22 de octubre en la Universidad de Belmont en Nashville, Tennessee , y fue moderado por Kristen Welker . [245] [246] Los cambios en las reglas del debate dieron como resultado que en general se considerara más civilizado que el primer debate. [247] El desempeño de Welker como moderadora fue elogiado, y se consideró que había hecho un buen trabajo evitando que los candidatos se interrumpieran entre sí. [248] En general, se consideró que Biden había ganado el debate, aunque se consideró poco probable que alteraría la carrera en un grado considerable. [249] [250] [251]

La Fundación Igualdad de elecciones libres y llevaron a cabo dos debates con varios terceros y los candidatos independientes, uno el 8 de octubre de 2020, en Denver , Colorado , [256] y otro el 24 de octubre de 2020, en Cheyenne, Wyoming . [257]

Votación

Bidireccional

El siguiente gráfico muestra la posición de cada candidato en los agregadores de encuestas desde septiembre de 2019 hasta noviembre de 2020. El exvicepresidente Joe Biden , el candidato demócrata, tuvo una ventaja promedio en las encuestas de 7,9 puntos porcentuales sobre el actual presidente Donald Trump , el candidato republicano.


De cuatro vías

Los promedios calculados no son comparables a los de las encuestas de Biden vs Trump. Como las encuestas con terceros han sido muy limitadas, las encuestas incluidas en el promedio suelen ser diferentes.


Estados de swing

El siguiente gráfico muestra la diferencia entre Joe Biden y Donald Trump en cada estado de transición en los agregadores de encuestas desde marzo de 2020 hasta las elecciones, con los resultados de las elecciones para comparar.


Endosos

Problemas de campaña

Pandemia de COVID-19

La pandemia de COVID-19 fue un tema importante de la campaña, y las respuestas de Trump fueron fuertemente criticadas. El presidente difundió mensajes contradictorios sobre el valor de usar máscaras faciales como protección, incluso criticó a Biden y a los periodistas por usarlas, pero también ha alentado su uso en ocasiones. [258] Durante la campaña, Trump llevó a cabo muchos eventos en todo el país, incluso en puntos calientes de coronavirus, donde los asistentes no usaban máscaras y no se distanciaban socialmente; al mismo tiempo, se burló de los que llevaban máscaras. [259] [260] [261]

Biden abogó por la expansión de la financiación federal, incluida la financiación en virtud de la Ley de Producción de Defensa para pruebas, equipo de protección personal e investigación. [262] Trump también ha invocado la Ley de Producción de Defensa en menor medida para controlar la distribución de máscaras y ventiladores, [263] pero su plan de respuesta se basó significativamente en una vacuna que se lanzaría a finales de 2020. [262] En el segundo En el debate presidencial, Trump afirmó que Biden lo había llamado xenófobo por restringir la entrada de ciudadanos extranjeros que habían visitado China, pero Biden aclaró que no se había referido a esta decisión. [264]

Economía

Trump se atribuyó el mérito de la expansión económica constante de los primeros tres años de su presidencia, con el mercado de valores en su período de crecimiento más largo en la historia y el desempleo en un mínimo de cincuenta años. Además, ha promocionado el repunte del tercer trimestre de 2020, en el que el PIB creció a una tasa anualizada del 33,1%, como prueba del éxito de sus políticas económicas. [265] Biden respondió a las afirmaciones de Trump repitiendo que la fuerte economía bajo la presidencia de Trump fue heredada de la administración Obama, y ​​que Trump ha agravado el impacto económico de la pandemia, incluida la necesidad de 42 millones de estadounidenses de solicitar el desempleo. [266]

La Ley de Empleos y Reducción de Impuestos de 2017 , que redujo el impuesto sobre la renta para la mayoría de los estadounidenses, así como también redujo la tasa del impuesto corporativo del 35% al ​​21%, fue una parte importante de la política económica de Trump. Biden y los demócratas generalmente describen estos recortes como un beneficio injusto para la clase alta. Biden planea aumentar los impuestos a las corporaciones y aquellos que ganan más de $ 400,000 por año, mientras mantiene los impuestos reducidos en los tramos de ingresos más bajos y aumenta los impuestos sobre las ganancias de capital a un tramo máximo del 39,6%. En respuesta, Trump dijo que los planes de Biden destruirán las cuentas de jubilación y el mercado de valores . [267]

Ambiente

Las opiniones de Trump y Biden sobre la política medioambiental difieren significativamente. Trump ha declarado en ocasiones que el cambio climático es un engaño, aunque también lo ha calificado de tema serio. [268] Trump ha condenado el Acuerdo de París sobre reducción de gases de efecto invernadero y ha comenzado el proceso de retirada . Biden planea reunirse con él y anunció un plan de 2 billones de dólares para combatir el cambio climático. Sin embargo, Biden no ha aceptado completamente el Green New Deal . Biden no planea prohibir el fracking , sino prohibir el nuevo fracking en terrenos federales. Sin embargo, en un debate, Trump afirmó que Biden quería prohibirlo por completo. Las otras políticas ambientales de Trump han incluido la eliminación denormas de emisión de metano y expansión de la minería. [269]

Cuidado de la salud

La atención médica fue un tema divisivo tanto en la campaña primaria demócrata como en la campaña general. Si bien Biden, al igual que otros candidatos, prometió la protección de la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio , los progresistas dentro del Partido Demócrata abogaron por reemplazar la industria de seguros privados con Medicare para Todos . El plan de Biden implica agregar una opción pública al sistema de salud estadounidense, [270] y la restauración del mandato individual de comprar atención médica que fue eliminado de la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio por el proyecto de ley de reducción de impuestos de 2017 [271] , así como restaurar la financiación para Planificación familiar. Trump anunció planes para derogar la Ley del Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio, calificándola de "demasiado cara", pero no ha dicho qué la reemplazaría. [272] En el momento de la elección, la administración Trump y los funcionarios republicanos de 18 estados tenían una demanda ante la Corte Suprema, solicitando a la corte que derogue la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio. [273]

Disturbios raciales

George Floyd protesta en Minneapolis el 26 de mayo

Como resultado del asesinato de George Floyd y otros incidentes de brutalidad policial contra los afroamericanos, combinados con los efectos de la pandemia de COVID-19, a mediados de 2020 estallaron una serie de protestas y un período más amplio de disturbios raciales . [274] Se llevaron a cabo muchas protestas pacíficas, pero también se produjeron disturbios y saqueos. Trump y los republicanos han sugerido enviar al ejército para contrarrestar las protestas, que fueron criticadas, especialmente por los demócratas, por considerarlas duras y potencialmente ilegales. [275] Particularmente controvertida fue una sesión de fotos que Trump tomó frente a la Iglesia de San Juan en Washington DC., antes de lo cual la policía militar había desalojado por la fuerza a manifestantes pacíficos de la zona. [271] Biden condenó a Trump por sus acciones contra los manifestantes; describió las palabras de George Floyd " No puedo respirar " como una "llamada de atención para nuestra nación". También prometió que crearía una comisión de supervisión policial en sus primeros 100 días como presidente y establecería un estándar de uso uniforme de la fuerza, así como otras medidas de reforma policial. [276]

Predicciones

Resultados

Votación anticipada en Cleveland , Ohio

Estadísticas

En las elecciones se emitieron más de 158 millones de votos. [290] Más de 100 millones de ellos fueron emitidos antes del día de las elecciones mediante votación anticipada o por correo , debido a la pandemia en curso. [291] La elección vio la mayor participación de votantes como porcentaje de votantes elegibles desde 1900 , [292] con cada una de las dos listas principales recibiendo más de 74 millones de votos, superando el récord de Barack Obama de 69,5 millones de votos de 2008 . [10] El boleto Biden-Harris recibió más de 81 millones de votos, la mayor cantidad de votos en una elección presidencial estadounidense . [11][12] Fue la novena elección presidencial consecutiva en la que el candidato victorioso no obtuvo una mayoría de voto popular por un margen de dos dígitos , continuando la serie más larga de elecciones presidenciales de este tipo en la historia de Estados Unidos que comenzó en 1988 . [293]

Trump se convirtió en el primer presidente de los Estados Unidos desde 1992 y el undécimo titular en la historia del país en no ganar un segundo mandato, y Biden ganó la mayor parte del voto popular contra un titular desde 1932 . [7] [8] [9] Biden se convirtió en el segundo ex vicepresidente, después del republicano Richard Nixon en 1968 , en ser elegido para un primer mandato como presidente, y el primer demócrata en hacerlo. [294]

Biden ganó 25 estados, el Distrito de Columbia y un distrito del Congreso en Nebraska, con un total de 306 votos electorales. Trump ganó 25 estados y un distrito del Congreso en Maine, con un total de 232 votos electorales. Este resultado fue exactamente el reverso del 306 a 232 de Trump en 2016 . [295] Biden se convirtió en el primer demócrata en ganar las elecciones presidenciales en Georgia desde 1992 y en Arizona desde 1996 , [296] y el primer candidato en ganar a nivel nacional sin Ohio desde 1960 y sin Florida desde 1992. [297]

A la luz de los intentos de impugnar los resultados de las elecciones, una pregunta importante es cuántos votos deberían cambiarse para cambiar el resultado general. Los márgenes a favor de Biden en tres estados (Wisconsin, Georgia y Arizona) totalizaron alrededor de 43.000. Esto es solo el 0.03% del total de votos emitidos, pero lo más relevante sería cambiar los márgenes en estos estados en menos del 0.7%. Ese margen es un poco más de la mitad del margen en 2016, aunque utilizando la misma lógica, Clinton necesitaría ganar Michigan, Wisconsin y Pensilvania, que fueron estados en los que ganó Biden. Si estos estados hubieran optado por Trump, habría habido un empate de 269 electores por cada candidato. [298] Esto habría llevado a una elección contingente., en el que el presidente es elegido por la Cámara de Representantes. Una situación similar ocurrió en 2016 (los tres estados eran Wisconsin, Michigan y Pensilvania), pero el resultado fue que el candidato con el voto popular más bajo ganó el voto del colegio electoral.

Casi todos los condados que antes se consideraban indicadores confiables de un eventual éxito en las elecciones presidenciales votaron por Trump en lugar de Biden, lo que significa que no continuaron sus rachas como condados líderes . Esto se atribuyó a la creciente polarización política en todo el país, así como a la división urbano-rural. [299]

Cada estado ganado por Biden fue ganado por más votos de los que ganó Hillary Clinton en cada estado. El margen de voto combinado de estos estados fue igual a la ganancia de Biden sobre Hillary Clinton. [300]

Convocatorias electorales

Cartograma hexagonal del número de votos de los colegios electorales, con estados tramados al revés

Las principales organizaciones de noticias proyectan un estado para un candidato cuando existe una alta confianza matemática de que es poco probable que el voto pendiente evite que el ganador proyectado finalmente gane el estado. Las proyecciones de las elecciones son realizadas por equipos de decisión de científicos políticos y científicos de datos. [21]

La gente celebra en las calles cercanas a la Casa Blanca luego de que las principales cadenas proyectaran a Biden como el ganador de las elecciones del 7 de noviembre.

El 6 de noviembre, la organización de convocatorias de elecciones Decision Desk HQ proyectó que Biden había ganado las elecciones después de pronosticar que Biden había ganado Pensilvania. Según Decision Desk HQ (que aún no había llamado a Arizona), los 20 votos electorales de Pensilvania le dieron a Biden un total de 273 votos electorales, tres por encima del umbral para convertirlo en presidente electo . Los clientes de Decision Desk HQ , Vox y Business Insider, también convocaron la carrera en ese momento. [301] [302] [303]

En la mañana del 7 de noviembre aproximadamente a las 11:30  a.m. EST, aproximadamente tres días y medio después del cierre de las urnas, ABC News , NBC News , CBS News , Associated Press , CNN y Fox News convocaron la elección de Biden, según en proyecciones de votos en Pensilvania que lo muestran liderando fuera del umbral de recuento (0.5% en ese estado). [304] [305] [306] [307] [308] [309] Esa noche, Biden y Harris dieron discursos de victoria en Wilmington, Delaware. [310]

Seguimiento de las elecciones de la OSCE

Por invitación del Departamento de Estado de Estados Unidos, la Organización para la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa 's (OSCE) Oficina de Instituciones Democráticas y Derechos Humanos (OIDDH), que ha seguido de elecciones en Estados Unidos desde 2002 (como lo hace para las elecciones más importantes en todos los demás países miembros de la OSCE), envió 102 observadores de 39 países. [311] [312] [313] El grupo de trabajo estaba formado por observadores a largo plazo de la oficina de la OIDDH (liderados por la ex diplomática polaca Urszula Gacek ) desplegados en 28 estados a partir de septiembre y cubriendo 15 estados el día de las elecciones, y un grupo de Los legisladores europeos que actúan como observadores a corto plazo (encabezados por el parlamentario alemán Michael Georg Link), que informa desde Maryland, Virginia, California, Nevada, Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin y DC [311] [313] Debido a la pandemia de COVID-19, se redujo a una "misión de observación electoral limitada" de la planeada originalmente 100 observadores a largo plazo y 400 observadores a corto plazo. [311]

Un informe provisional publicado por la OSCE poco antes de las elecciones señaló que muchos interlocutores de la OIDDH "expresaron serias preocupaciones sobre el riesgo de que se cuestione la legitimidad de las elecciones debido a las repetidas acusaciones del presidente en ejercicio de un proceso electoral fraudulento, y el voto por correo en particular". [311] [314] Al día siguiente de la elección, el grupo de trabajo publicó conclusiones preliminares, [312] y parte del resumen indicaba:

Las elecciones generales del 3 de noviembre fueron competitivas y bien gestionadas a pesar de las incertidumbres legales y los desafíos logísticos. En un entorno político altamente polarizado, la retórica de campaña enconada avivó las tensiones. Las medidas destinadas a asegurar las elecciones durante la pandemia desencadenaron un litigio prolongado impulsado por intereses partidistas. La incertidumbre causada por las impugnaciones legales tardías y los reclamos de evidencia deficiente sobre fraude electoral creó confusión y preocupación entre los funcionarios electorales y los votantes. Las reglas de registro e identificación de votantes en algunos estados son indebidamente restrictivas para ciertos grupos de ciudadanos. Los medios de comunicación, aunque marcadamente polarizados, proporcionaron una cobertura completa de la campaña y se esforzaron por brindar información precisa sobre la organización de las elecciones. [315]

Link afirmó que "en el mismo día de las elecciones, no pudimos ver ninguna violación" en los lugares de votación visitados por los observadores. [312] El grupo de trabajo tampoco encontró "nada inconveniente" mientras observaba el manejo de las papeletas de votación por correo en las oficinas de correos, y se citó a Gacek diciendo: "Creemos que las acusaciones de irregularidades sistémicas en estas elecciones no tienen base sólida. El sistema se ha mantenido bien ". [313] La sección de supervisión de elecciones de la OSCE debe publicar un informe más completo a principios de 2021. [313]

Resultados electorales

Los candidatos se enumeran individualmente a continuación si recibieron más del 0,1% del voto popular.

Resultados por estado

Note that two states (Maine and Nebraska) allow for their electoral votes to be split between candidates by congressional districts. The winner within each congressional district gets one electoral vote for the district. The winner of the statewide vote gets two additional electoral votes.[323][324]

Close states

States where the margin of victory was under 1% (37 electoral votes; all won by Biden):

  1. Georgia, 0.24% – 16
  2. Arizona, 0.31% – 11
  3. Wisconsin, 0.63% – 10 (tipping-point state for Biden victory)[325]

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5% (86 electoral votes; 42 won by Biden, 44 by Trump):

  1. Pennsylvania, 1.16% – 20 (tipping-point state for Trump victory)
  2. North Carolina, 1.35% – 15
  3. Nevada, 2.39% – 6
  4. Michigan, 2.78% – 16
  5. Florida, 3.36% – 29

States/districts where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10% (80 electoral votes; 17 won by Biden, 63 by Trump):

  1. Texas, 5.58% – 38
  2. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 6.50% – 1
  3. Minnesota, 7.11% – 10
  4. New Hampshire, 7.35% – 4
  5. Maine's 2nd congressional district, 7.44% – 1
  6. Ohio, 8.03% – 18
  7. Iowa, 8.20% – 6
  8. Maine, 9.07% – 2

Blue denotes states or congressional districts won by Democrat Joe Biden; red denotes those won by Republican Donald Trump.

County statistics

Counties with highest percentage of Democratic vote:[326]

  1. Kalawao County, Hawaii 95.8%[327]
  2. Washington, D.C. 92.15%
  3. Prince George's County, Maryland 89.26%
  4. Oglala Lakota County, South Dakota 88.41%
  5. Petersburg, Virginia 87.75%

Counties with highest percentage of Republican vote:

  1. Roberts County, Texas 96.18%
  2. Borden County, Texas 95.43%
  3. King County, Texas 94.97%
  4. Garfield County, Montana 93.97%
  5. Glasscock County, Texas 93.57%

Maps

  • Election results by county

  • County swing from 2016 to 2020

  • Election results by Congressional District.

Exit polling

Voter demographic data for 2020 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 15,590 voters in person as well as by phone.[328]

The Brookings Institution released a report entitled "Exit polls show both familiar and new voting blocs sealed Biden's win" on November 12, 2020. In it, author William H. Frey attributes Obama's 2008 win to young people, people of color, and the college educated. Frey contends Trump won in 2016 thanks to older White without college degrees.[330] Frey says that the same coalitions largely held in 2008 and 2016, although in key battleground states Biden increased his vote among some of the 2016 Trump groups, particularly among White and older Americans.[330] Trump won the white vote in 2016 by 20% but in 2020 by only 17%. The Democratic Party won black voters by 75%, the lowest margin since 2004. Democrats won the Latino vote by 33%, which is also the smallest margin since 2004, and they won the Asian American vote by 27%, the lowest figure since 2008.[330] Biden reduced the Republican margin of white men without college educations from 48% to 42% and made a slight improvement of 2% among white, college-educated women. People age 18 to 29 registered a rise in Democratic support between 2016 and 2020, with the Democratic margin of victory among that demographic increasing from 19% to 24%.[330]

Voting patterns by ethnicity

Latino voters

Biden won 65% of the Latino vote. Voto Latino reported that the Latino vote was crucial to the Biden victory in Arizona. 40% of Latino voters who voted in 2020 did not vote in 2016, and 73% of Latino voters voted for Biden (438,000 voters).[331] Others note that the failure of Democrats to win in Florida and Texas was because of the Biden campaign's treatment of Latino as a monolithic voting bloc. While Democrats won most Latino voters in both of these states, they failed to win over Cuban American voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida and fourth-and-fifth generation, English-speaking Tejanos in South Texas at the rates they had in the past.[332] However, the Latino vote was still crucial to enable Biden to carry states such as Nevada.[333]

Demographic patterns emerged having to do with country of origin and candidate preference. Pre- and post-election surveys showed Biden winning Latino of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Dominican,[334] and Spanish heritage,[335] while Trump carried Latinos of Cuban heritage. Data from Florida showed Biden holding a narrow edge among South Americans.[336]

Black voters

Biden won 87% of the Black vote. This vote was crucial in the large cities of Pennsylvania and Michigan; the increase in the Democratic vote in Milwaukee County of about 28,000 votes was more than the 20,000-vote lead Biden had in the state of Wisconsin. Almost half of Biden's gains in Georgia came from the four largest counties—Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb—all in the Atlanta metro area with large Black populations.[337] However, Trump also improved on his share of the black vote in 2016 by 4% and doubled the black vote Mitt Romney got in 2012.[338][339][340]

Asian American and Pacific Island voters

Polls showed that 68% of Asian American and Pacific Island voters (AAPI voters) supported Biden/Harris while 28% supported Trump/Pence. Karthick Ramakrishnan, a political science professor at the University of California Riverside and founder of AAPI Data, said, "From all of the data that we’ve seen, it’s safe to say Asian Americans supported Biden over Trump ... backing Democrats at a roughly 2:1 ratio." However, this overall tendency overlooks differences between subgroups: Korean Americans, Japanese Americans, Indian Americans, and Chinese Americans favored Biden by higher margins overall compared to Vietnamese Americans and Filipino Americans.[341] Many voters were turned off by Trump's racist language ("China virus" and "kung flu") but, according to Vox reporter Terry Nguyen, some Vietnamese voters (and especially elderly, South Vietnamese migrants who populated coastal centers in the 1970s) appreciated his strong anti-China stance.[342]

American voters with background from India

Data from FiveThirtyEight indicated 65% of Indian American voters backed Joe Biden, and 28% supported Donald Trump.[341] Many Indian Americans self-identified with Kamala Harris, but others approved of Donald Trump's anti-Muslim rhetoric and support of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.[343] In a speech given to 50,000 Indian-Americans during his 2019 visit to the US, Modi praised Trump with remarks that were interpreted as an indirect endorsement of his candidacy.[344] Indian right-wing organizations like the Hindu Sena had performed special havans and pujas for Trump's electoral victory.[345]

During the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol, a group of Trump supporters held a Indian flag quite prominently. It was held by a US citizen of Indian origin hailing from Kochi in Southern India.[346] Varun Gandhi, a senior parliamentarian from India's ruling BJP, expressed surprise and disapproval of the prominent display of the Indian flag by some of the protestors in one of his tweets. However, opposition Indian National Congress leader Shashi Tharoor equated the mentality of some Indians with that of Trump supporters.[347]

American Indian and Alaska Native voters

Pre-election voter surveys by Indian Country Today found 68% of Native voters supporting Democratic nominee Joe Biden.[348] In particular, the Navajo Reservation, which spans a large quadrant of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, delivered up to 97% of their votes per precinct to Biden,[349] while overall support for Biden was between 60 and 90% on the Reservation.[350] Biden also posted large turnout among Havasupai, Hopi, and Tohono O'odham peoples,[351] delivering a large win in New Mexico and flipping Arizona.

In Montana, while the state went for Trump overall, counties overlapping reservations of the Blackfeet, Fort Belknap, Crow and Northern Cheyenne went blue.[352] The same pattern holds in South Dakota: counties overlapping the lands of the Standing Rock Sioux, Cheyenne River Sioux, Oglala Sioux, Rosebud Sioux and Crow Creek tribes went for Biden. For example, in Oglala Lakota County, which overlaps with the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, Biden scored 88% of the vote.[352]

Trump's strongest performance was among the Lumbee Tribe of North Carolina, where he won a strong majority in Robeson County and flipped Scotland County from blue to red.[353] Trump had campaigned in Lumberton and promised the Lumbees federal recognition.[353]

Polling accuracy

Although polls generally predicted the Biden victory, the national polls were moderately imprecise by about 3–4 points, and some state polling was even further from the actual result, greater than 2016's error of around 1–2 points. This also applied in several Senate races, where the Democrats also underperformed by around 5 points relative to the polls,[354] as well as the House elections, where Republicans gained seats instead of losing as polls predicted. Most pollsters underestimated support for Trump in several key battleground states, including Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Texas and Wisconsin; a notable exception was Ann Selzer, who accurately predicted Republican victories in Iowa for the presidential and Senate races. The discrepancy between poll predictions and the actual result persisted from the 2016 election despite pollsters' attempts to fix problems with polling in 2016, in which they underestimated the Republican vote in several states. The imprecise polls led to changes in campaigning and fundraising decisions for both Democrats and Republicans.[355]

According to The New York Times, polling misses have been attributed to, among other issues, reduced average response to polling; the relative difficulty to poll certain types of voters; and pandemic-related problems, such as a theory which suggests Democrats were less willing to vote in person on Election Day than Republicans for fear of contracting COVID-19.[355] New Statesman data journalist Ben Walker pointed to Hispanics as a historically difficult group to poll accurately, leading to pollsters underestimating the level of Trump support within the demographic group.[356] Election analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight claimed that the polling error was completely normal by historical standards and disputes the narrative that polls were wrong.[357]

Aftermath

Election night

Voters cast ballots at Roosevelt High School in Des Moines, Iowa

Election night, November 3, ended without a clear winner, as many state results were too close to call and millions of votes remained uncounted, including in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.[358] Results were delayed in these states due to local rules on counting mail-in ballots. In a victory declared after midnight, Trump won the swing state of Florida by over three percentage points, an increase from his 1.2 percentage point margin in 2016, having seen significant gains in support among the Latino community in Miami-Dade County.[359]

Shortly after 12:30 a.m. EST, Biden made a short speech in which he urged his supporters to be patient while the votes are counted, and said he believed he was "on track to win this election".[360][361] Shortly before 2:30 a.m. EST, Trump made a speech to a roomful of supporters, falsely asserting that he had won the election and calling for a stop to all vote counting, saying that continued counting was "a fraud on the American people" and that "we will be going to the U.S. Supreme Court."[362][363] The Biden campaign denounced these attempts, claiming that the Trump campaign was engaging in a "naked effort to take away the democratic rights of American citizens".[364]

Late counting

In Pennsylvania, where the counting of mail-in ballots began on election night, Trump declared victory on November 4 with a lead of 675,000 votes, despite more than a million ballots remaining uncounted. Trump also declared victory in North Carolina and Georgia, despite many ballots being uncounted.[365] At 11:20 p.m. EST on election night, Fox News projected Biden would win Arizona, with the Associated Press making the same call at 2:50 a.m. EST on November 4;[366][367] however, several other media outlets concluded the state was too close to call.[368][369] By the evening of November 4, the Associated Press reported that Biden had secured 264 electoral votes by winning Michigan and Wisconsin, with Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada remaining uncalled.[370] Biden had a 1% lead in Nevada[371] and maintained a 2.3% lead in Arizona by November 5,[372] needing only to win Nevada and Arizona or win Pennsylvania to obtain the necessary 270 electoral votes.[370]

Some Trump supporters expressed concerns of possible fraud after seeing the president leading in some states on Election Night, only to see Biden take the lead in subsequent days. Election experts attributed this to several factors, including a "red mirage" of early results being counted in relatively thinly-populated rural areas that favored Trump, which are quicker to count, followed later by results from more heavily populated urban areas that favored Biden, which take longer to count. In some states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Republican-controlled legislatures prohibited mail-in ballots from being counted before Election Day, and once those ballots were counted they generally favored Biden, at least in part because Trump had for months raised concerns about mail-in ballots, causing those ballots to favor Biden even more. By contrast, in states such as Florida, which allowed counting of mail-in ballots for weeks prior to Election Day, an early blue shift giving the appearance of a Biden lead was later overcome by in-person voting that favored Trump, resulting in the state being called for the president on Election Night.[373][374][375]

On November 5, a federal judge dismissed a lawsuit by the Trump campaign to stop vote-counting in Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign had alleged that its observers were not given access to observe the vote, but its lawyers admitted during the hearing that its observers were already present in the vote-counting room.[376] Also that day, a state judge dismissed another lawsuit by the Trump campaign that alleged that in Georgia, late-arriving ballots were counted. The judge ruled no evidence had been produced that the ballots were late.[377] Meanwhile, a state judge in Michigan dismissed the Trump campaign's lawsuit requesting a pause in vote-counting to allow access to observers, as the judge noted that vote-counting had already finished in Michigan.[378] That judge also noted the official complaint did not state "why", "when, where, or by whom" an election observer was allegedly blocked from observing ballot-counting in Michigan.[379]

On November 6, Biden assumed leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia as the states continued to count ballots, and absentee votes in those states heavily favored Biden.[380] Due to the slim margin between Biden and Trump in the state, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced on November 6 that a recount would be held in Georgia. At that point, Georgia had not seen "any widespread irregularities" in this election, according to the voting system manager of the state, Gabriel Sterling.[381]

Also on November 6, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito issued an order requiring officials in Pennsylvania to segregate late-arriving ballots, amid a dispute as to whether the state's Supreme Court validly ordered a 3-day extension of the deadline for mail-in ballots to arrive.[382] Several Republican attorneys general filed amicus briefs before the U.S. Supreme Court in subsequent days agreeing with the Pennsylvania Republican Party's view that only the state legislature could change the voting deadline.[383]

By November 7, several prominent Republicans had publicly denounced Trump's claims of electoral fraud, saying they were unsubstantiated, baseless or without evidence, damaging to the election process, undermining democracy and dangerous to political stability while others supported his demand of transparency.[384] According to CNN, people close to Donald Trump, such as his son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner and his wife Melania Trump, urged him to accept his defeat. While Donald Trump privately acknowledged the outcome of the presidential election, he nonetheless encouraged his legal team to continue pursuing legal challenges.[385] Trump expected to win the election in Arizona, but when Fox News awarded said state to Joe Biden, Trump became furious and claimed that Joe Biden's victory in Arizona was the result of fraud.[386]Trump and his allies suffered approximately 50 legal losses in four weeks after starting their litigation.[387] In view of these legal defeats, Trump began to employ "a public pressure campaign on state and local Republican officials to manipulate the electoral system on his behalf."[386][388][389][390]

Election protests

Protests against Trump's challenges to the election results took place in Minneapolis, Portland, New York, and other cities. Police in Minneapolis arrested more than 600 demonstrators for blocking traffic on an interstate highway. In Portland, the National Guard was called out after some protesters smashed windows and threw objects at police.[391] At the same time, groups of Trump supporters gathered outside of election centers in Phoenix, Detroit, and Philadelphia, shouting objections to counts that showed Biden leading or gaining ground.[391] In Arizona, where Biden's lead was shrinking as more results were reported, the pro-Trump protesters mostly demanded that all remaining votes be counted, while in Michigan and Pennsylvania, where Trump's lead shrank and disappeared altogether as more results were reported, they called for the count to be stopped.[392]

Claims of fraud

During the week following the election, Trump repeatedly claimed that he had won.[393][394]

Trump and a variety of his surrogates and supporters made a series of false claims that the election was fraudulent. Claims that substantial fraud was committed have been repeatedly debunked.[395][396] On November 9 and 10, The New York Times called the offices of top election officials in every state; all of the 45 state officials who responded stated that there was no evidence of fraud. Some described the election as remarkably successful considering the coronavirus pandemic, the record turnout, and the unprecedented number of mailed ballots.[26] On November 12, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued a statement calling the 2020 election "the most secure in American history" and noting "[t]here is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised".[14]

As ballots were still being counted two days after Election Day, Trump asserted without evidence that there was "tremendous corruption and fraud going on", adding: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win. If you count the illegal votes, they can try to steal the election from us."[397] Trump has repeatedly claimed that the results of mail-in ballots showing significantly more support for Biden is suspicious.[398] This is a common phenomenon known as the blue shift, since more Democrats than Republicans tend to vote by mail, and mail ballots are counted after Election Day in many states. Leading up to the 2020 election, the effect was predicted to be even greater than usual, as Trump's attacks on mail-in voting may have deterred Republicans from casting mail ballots.[399]

Many claims of purported voter fraud were discovered to be false or misleading. In Fulton County, Georgia the number of votes affected was 342, with no breakdown of which candidates they were for.[400] A viral video of a Pennsylvania poll worker filling out a ballot was found to be a case of a damaged ballot being replicated to ensure proper counting, while a video claimed to show a man taking ballots illegally to a Detroit counting center was found to be actually depicting a photographer transporting his equipment.[401][402] Another video of a poll watcher being turned away in Philadelphia was found to be real, but the poll watcher had subsequently been allowed inside after a misunderstanding had been resolved.[403] A tweet that went viral claimed that 14,000 votes in Wayne County, Michigan—which encompasses Detroit—were cast by dead people, but the list of names included was found to be incorrect.[404] The Trump campaign and Tucker Carlson also claimed a James Blalock had voted in Georgia despite having died in 2006, though his 94-year-old widow had registered and voted as Mrs. James E. Blalock.[405] In Erie, Pennsylvania, a postal worker who claimed that the postmaster had instructed postal workers to backdate ballots mailed after Election Day later admitted he had fabricated the claim. Prior to his recantation, Republican senator Lindsey Graham cited the claim in a letter to the Justice Department calling for an investigation, and the worker was praised as a patriot on a GoFundMe page created in his name that raised $136,000.[406]

Days after Biden had been declared the winner, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany asserted without evidence that the Democratic Party was welcoming fraud and illegal voting.[407] Republican former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich stated on Fox News, "I think that it is a corrupt, stolen election."[408] Appearing at a press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business as Biden was being declared the winner, Trump's personal attorney Rudy Giuliani asserted without evidence that hundreds of thousands of ballots were questionable.[409] Responding to Giuliani, a spokesperson for Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro said "Many of the claims against the commonwealth have already been dismissed, and repeating these false attacks is reckless. No active lawsuit even alleges, and no evidence presented so far has shown, widespread problems."[26]

One week after the election, Republican Philadelphia city commissioner Al Schmidt said he had not seen any evidence of widespread fraud, stating, "I have seen the most fantastical things on social media, making completely ridiculous allegations that have no basis in fact at all and see them spread." He added that his office had examined a list of dead people who purportedly voted in Philadelphia but "not a single one of them voted in Philadelphia after they died." Trump derided Schmidt, tweeting, "He refuses to look at a mountain of corruption & dishonesty. We win!"[410]

Attorneys who brought accusations of voting fraud or irregularities before judges were unable to produce actual evidence to support the allegations. In one instance, a Trump attorney sought to have ballot counting halted in Detroit on the basis of a claim by a Republican poll watcher that she had been told by an unidentified person that ballots were being backdated; Michigan Court of Appeals judge Cynthia Stephens dismissed the argument as "inadmissible hearsay within hearsay."[411][412] Some senior attorneys at law firms working on Trump's behalf, notably Jones Day, expressed concerns that they were helping to undermine the integrity of American elections by advancing arguments lacking evidence.[413]

Trump and his lawyers Giuliani and Sidney Powell repeatedly made the false claim that the Toronto, Canada-based firm Dominion Voting Systems, which had supplied voting machines for 27 states, was a "communist" organization controlled by billionaire George Soros, former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez (who died in 2013), or the Chinese Communist Party, and that the machines had "stolen" hundreds of thousands of votes from Trump. The false claims about the company circulated on social media, amplified by more than a dozen tweets or retweets by Trump. The disinformation campaign prompted threats and harassment against Dominion employees.[414]

A December 2020 poll showed 77% of Republicans believe widespread fraud occurred during the election. 35% of independent voters also said they believe widespread voter fraud took place.[415] Overall, 60% of Americans believed Biden's win was legitimate, 34% did not, and 6% were unsure. Another poll taken in late December showed a similar result, with 62% of Americans polled believing Biden was the legitimate winner of the election, while 37% did not.[416] This split in popular opinion remained largely stable, with a January 10, 2021, poll commissioned by ABC News showing 68% of Americans believed Biden's win was legitimate and 32% did not.[417]

Lawsuits

After the election, the Trump campaign filed a number of lawsuits in multiple states, including Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.[418] Lawyers and other observers have noted the suits are unlikely to have an effect on the outcome. Loyola Law School professor Justin Levitt said, "There's literally nothing that I've seen yet with the meaningful potential to affect the final result".[419]Some law firms have moved to drop their representation in lawsuits challenging results of the election.[420]

On December 20, Giuliani filed a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court, asking them to overturn the results of the Pennsylvania election and direct the state legislature to appoint electors. The Supreme Court was regarded as very unlikely to grant this petition, and even if they did, it would not alter the election outcome, since Biden would still have a majority of Electoral College votes without Pennsylvania.[421] The Court set the deadline for reply briefs from the respondents for January 22, 2021, two days after President Elect Biden's inauguration.[422]

Texas v. Pennsylvania

On December 9, Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas, filed a lawsuit in the Supreme Court of the United States, asking the court to overturn the results in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Attorney generals of seventeen other states also signed onto the lawsuit.[423][424][425] 126 Republicans in the House of Representatives, more than two-thirds of the Republican caucus, signed an amicus brief in support of the lawsuit.[426] The suit was rejected by the Supreme Court on December 11.[427][428]

Trump's refusal to concede

Early in the morning on November 4, with vote counts still going on in many states, Trump claimed that he had won.[429] For weeks after the networks had called the election for Biden, Trump refused to acknowledge that Biden had won. Biden described Trump's refusal as "an embarrassment".[430] The General Services Administration (GSA) was blocking preparations for a transfer of power from proceeding.[431] The White House ordered government agencies not to cooperate with the Biden transition team in any way.[432] Starting in 1896 when William Jennings Bryan began the tradition of formal concession by sending a congratulatory telegram to President-elect William McKinley, every losing major party presidential candidate has formally conceded.[433]

Trump acknowledged Biden's victory in a tweet on November 15, although he refused to concede and blamed his loss on fraud, stating: "He won because the Election was Rigged." Trump then tweeted: "I concede NOTHING! We have a long way to go."[434][435]

GSA delays certifying Biden as president-elect

Although all major media outlets called the election for Biden on November 7, the head of the General Services Administration (GSA), Trump appointee Emily W. Murphy, refused for over two weeks to certify Biden as the president-elect. Without formal GSA certification or "ascertainment" of the winner of the election, the official transition process was delayed.[436] On November 23, Murphy acknowledged Biden as the winner[s] and said the Trump administration would begin the formal transition process. Trump said he had instructed his administration to "do what needs to be done" but did not concede, and indicated he intended to continue his fight to overturn the election results.[438]

Suggestion to have state legislatures choose Electoral College voters

Prior to and following the election, Trump and others within the Republican Party have considered asking Republican state legislatures to select their states' electors as a way to secure a Trump reelection, in the event of a Biden victory.[439] In Pennsylvania, the president's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani asked a federal judge to consider ordering the state legislature to select the electors.[440] Legal experts, including New York University law professor Richard Pildes, have said that such a strategy would run into numerous legal and political problems, noting that in various battleground states, Democratic Party members elected to statewide offices would thwart such efforts,[441] and ultimately Congress likely would not accept the votes of legislatively appointed electors over those appointed based on the election results.[442] Lawrence Lessig noted that while the Constitution grants state legislatures the power to determine how electors are selected, including the power to directly appoint them, Article II, Section 1, Clause 4 gives Congress the power to determine when electors must be appointed, which they have designated to be Election Day, meaning that legislatures cannot change how electors are appointed for an election after this date.[443] In modern times, most states have used a popular vote within their state as the determining factor in who gets all of the state's electors,[441] and changing election rules after an election has been conducted could also violate the Constitution's Due Process Clause.[444]

Attempts to delay or deny election results

Texas v. Pennsylvania motion (left), which called for the Supreme Court to nullify the election, and amicus curiae brief from 17 states (right)

In November Trump focused his efforts on trying to delay vote certifications in counties and states.[445] On December 2, Trump posted a 46-minute video to his social media in which he repeated his baseless claims that the election was "rigged" and fraudulent, and called for either the state legislatures or the courts to overturn the results of the election and allow him to stay in office.[446] He continued to apply pressure to elected Republicans in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in an unprecedented attempt to overturn the election result. Commentators have characterised Trump's actions as an attempted coup d'état or self-coup.[36]

On December 15, the day after the electoral college vote, Republican Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, who was previously among those who would not recognize the election results, publicly accepted Biden's win, stating: "Today, I want to congratulate President-elect Joe Biden."[447]

Multiple news media reported that at a December 18 meeting in the White House, there was discussion of Mike Flynn's suggestion to overturn the election by invoking martial law and rerunning the election in several swing states under military supervision.[448][449][450] Army Secretary Ryan D. McCarthy and Army Chief of Staff General James McConville later issued a joint statement saying: "There is no role for the U.S. military in determining the outcome of an American election."[451] In a December 20 tweet, Trump dismissed the accusations of wanting to declare martial law as "fake news."[452]

In a December 21 news conference, outgoing Attorney General William Barr disavowed several actions reportedly being considered by Trump, including seizing voting machines, appointing a special counsel to investigate voter fraud, and appointing one to investigate Hunter Biden.[453]

On January 6, 2021, at the same time as a rally held by Trump where he continued to press false claims of election fraud, a crowd of Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol, interrupting the Joint session of the United States Congress where the official Electoral College ballots were being certified. The crowd caused widespread vandalism to the Capitol and forced lawmakers to evacuate the chambers where debate was occurring. As part of an organized effort by Republican lawmakers to challenge the results in close states, the two Houses were meeting separately to debate the results of Arizona's election and accepting the electoral college ballots submitted. Several other challenges were also planned. After the interruption, while leaders of both parties, including Vice President Pence, Speaker Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader McConnell, all denounced the disruption and called on lawmakers to confirm the results, several Republicans pressed forward with their challenges, though they were unsuccessful in changing any of the electoral college results and the official vote was certified in the early morning hours of January 7.[454][455][456]

Pressure on state and local officials

As the Trump campaign's lawsuits were repeatedly rejected in court, Trump personally communicated with Republican local and state officials in at least three states, including state legislators, attorneys general, and governors who had supported him in the general election and continued to support him. He pressured them to overturn the election results in their states by recounting votes, throwing out certain votes, or getting the state legislature to replace the elected Democratic slate of Electoral College members with a Republican slate of electors chosen by the legislature.[457] In late November, he personally phoned Republican members of two county electoral boards in Michigan, trying to get them to reverse their certification of the result in their county.[458] He then invited members of the Michigan state legislature to the White House, where they declined his suggestion that they choose a new slate of electors.[459] He repeatedly spoke to the Republican governor of Georgia and the secretary of state, demanding that they reverse their state's election results, threatening them with political retaliation when they did not, strongly criticizing them in speeches and tweets, and demanding that the governor resign.[460]

During the first week of December Trump twice phoned the speaker of the Pennsylvania state House of Representatives, urging him to appoint a replacement slate of electors; the speaker said he did not have that power but later joined in a letter encouraging the state's representatives in Congress to dispute the results.[457] In a phone call January 2, Trump pressured Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger to overturn the state's result, telling him "I just want to find 11,780 votes" and threatening him with legal action if he did not cooperate.[32][461] On January 4, 2021, Democratic congressional leaders, believing Trump "engaged in solicitation of, or conspiracy to commit, a number of election crimes", requested the FBI to investigate the incident.[462] In addition, while some House Republicans tried to defend Trump's Georgia call, Democrats began drafting a censure resolution.[463] Also on January 2, 2021, Trump took part in a mass phone call with nearly 300 state legislators from Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, in which he urged them to "decertify" the election results in their states.[464]

Recounts

On November 11, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger ordered a statewide hand recount of the vote in addition to the normal audit process. At the time, Biden held a lead of 14,112 votes, or 0.3% in the state.[465] The audit was concluded on November 19 and affirmed Biden's lead by 12,670 votes. The change in the count was due to a number of human errors, including memory cards that did not upload properly to the state servers, and was not attributable to any fraud in the original tally.[466] After certifying the results Republican Governor Brian Kemp called for another hand audit, demanding to compare signatures on absentee ballot requests to actual ballots, despite the fact that this request was impossible,[467] as signatures on mail-in ballot applications and envelopes are checked when they are originally received by election offices, and that ballots are thereafter separated from envelopes to ensure the secrecy of the ballot.[468][469] The Trump campaign requested a machine recount, which was estimated to cost taxpayers $200,000 in one Georgia county alone.[470] This recount reaffirmed Biden's victory in the state for the third time.[467]

Trump unsuccessfully sought to overturn Biden's win in Georgia through litigation; suits by the Trump campaign and allies were rejected by both the Georgia Supreme Court[471] and by federal courts.[467][472] Trump also sought to overturn Biden's win by pressuring Kemp to call a special session of the Georgia General Assembly so that state legislators could override the Georgia election results and appoint a pro-Trump slate of electors, an entreaty rebuffed by Kemp.[473]

On November 18, the Trump campaign wired $3 million to pay for partial recounts in Milwaukee County and Dane County, Wisconsin, where Milwaukee and Madison, the two largest cities in the state and Democratic strongholds, are located.[474] During the recount, Milwaukee County election commissioner Tim Posnanski stated that several Republican observers were breaking rules by posing as independents. The recount started November 20[475] and concluded on November 29, with the recount increasing Biden's lead by 87 votes.[476]

Electoral College votes

The presidential electors met in the state capitol of each state and in the District of Columbia on December 14, 2020, and formalized Biden's victory, casting 306 votes for Biden/Harris and 232 votes for Trump/Pence.[477][478] Unlike the 2016 election, there were no faithless electors.[479] In six swing states won by Biden, groups of self-appointed Republican "alternate electors" met on the same day to vote for Trump. These alternate slates were not signed by the governors of the states they claim to represent, did not have the backing of any state legislature, and have no legal status.[478][480]

Even after the casting of the electoral votes, and rejection of his lawsuits seeking to overturn the election by at least 86 judges,[478] Trump refused to concede defeat.[477][478][481] In a speech following the Electoral College vote, Biden praised the resiliency of U.S. democratic institutions and the high election turnout (calling it "one of the most amazing demonstrations of civic duty we've ever seen in our country") and called for national unity. Biden also condemned Trump, and those who backed his efforts to subvert the election outcome, for adopting a stance "so extreme that we've never seen it before—a position that refused to respect the will of the people, refused to respect the rule of law and refused to honor our Constitution" and for exposing state election workers and officials to "political pressure, verbal abuse and even threats of physical violence" that was "simply unconscionable."[482][481]

Certification of Electoral College votes

Pro-Trump rioters stormed the U.S. Capitol Building on January 6

The 117th United States Congress first convened on January 3, 2021, and was scheduled to count and certify the Electoral College votes on January 6, 2021. At that time the state of the parties in the new Congress was 222 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House, and 51 Republicans, 46 Democrats and 2 independents in the Senate. Several Republican members of the House and Senate said they would raise objections to the reported count in several states,[483][484] meeting the requirement that if a member from each body objects, the two houses must meet separately to discuss whether to accept the certified state vote.[485][486] A statement from the vice president's office said that Pence welcomes the plan by Republicans to "raise objections and bring forward evidence" challenging the election results.[487]

On December 28, 2020, Representative Louie Gohmert filed a lawsuit in Texas challenging the constitutionality of the Electoral Count Act of 1887, claiming Vice President Pence has the power and ability to unilaterally decide which slates of electoral votes get counted.[488][489] The case was dismissed on January 1, 2021, for lack of both standing and jurisdiction.[490][491] The plaintiffs filed an appeal, and the appeal was dismissed by a three-judge panel of the appeals court the next day.[492]

As vice president, Pence was due to preside over the January 6, 2021, congressional session to count the electoral votes, which is normally a non-controversial, ceremonial event. In January 2021, Trump began to pressure Pence to take action to overturn the election, demanding both in public and in private that Pence use that position to overturn the election results in swing states and declare Trump and Pence the winners of the election.[493] Pence demurred that the law does not give him that power.[494]

Starting in December Trump called for his supporters to stage a massive protest in Washington, D.C. on January 6 to argue against certification of the electoral vote, using tweets such as "Big protest in D.C. on January 6th. Be there, will be wild!"[495] D.C. police were concerned, and the National Guard was alerted because several rallies in December had turned violent.[496] On January 6, Trump supporters stormed the Capitol, stopping the count of the votes and prompting an evacuation of press and lawmakers.[497] The group entered the House and Senate chambers and vandalized offices. Five people died as a result of the events in the Capitol: one person was shot by police, one Capitol Police officer died from his injuries after physically engaging with rioters,[498] one person died of a heart attack, another of a stroke, and the final person's death is still under investigation. Trump has been accused of inciting the violence with his rhetoric,[499] an accusation that was reinforced with an article of impeachment filed on January 13 for "incitement of insurrection".[500]

Congress reconvened that same night, after the Capitol was cleared of trespassers. The Senate resumed its session at around 8:00 p.m. on January 6 to finish debating the objection to the Arizona electors. Objections to the Pennsylvania electors were also considered. The joint session completed its work shortly before 4:00 a.m. on Thursday, January 7, declaring Biden the winner.[501][502][503]

Post-certification

On January 11, 2021, Representative Cori Bush filed a resolution calling for the possible expulsion of more than 100 Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who voted against certifying results of the presidential election and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse said the Senate Ethics Committee "must consider the expulsion, or censure and punishment, of Sens. Cruz, Hawley, and perhaps others."[504]

See also

  • Business Plot – 1933 attempt to overthrow the United States government
  • International reactions to the 2020 United States presidential election
  • Protests against Donald Trump
  • Social media in the 2020 United States presidential election
  • 2020 United States gubernatorial elections

Notes

  1. ^ a b About 64% of voters voted early before November 3 in person or by mail, with the earliest state starting on September 4.[1][2]
  2. ^ Trump's official state of residence was New York in the 2016 election but has since changed to Florida, with his permanent residence switching from Trump Tower to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.[4]
  3. ^ The previous two female vice presidential nominees were Geraldine Ferraro in 1984 and Sarah Palin in 2008.
  4. ^ Although claimed in Hawkins's campaign website, he did not obtain write-in access in Montana.[76]
  5. ^ Candidates in bold were listed on ballots of states representing most of the electoral college. Other candidates were listed on ballots of more than one state and were listed on ballots or were write-in candidates in states representing most of the electoral college.
  6. ^ In some states, some presidential candidates were listed with a different or no vice presidential candidate.
  7. ^ In some states, some candidates were listed with a different or additional party, a label, or as independent or unaffiliated.
  8. ^ Andrew Johnson received votes during the 1868 Democratic National Convention, four months after having been impeached.[96]
  9. ^ Following the cancellation of the planned second debate on October 9, both candidates held separate but simultaneous televised town hall events on the intended date of October 15. Trump's was broadcast on NBC, moderated by Savannah Guthrie, while Biden's was on ABC, moderated by George Stephanopoulos.[254]
  10. ^ a b Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%
  12. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r These candidates may have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are included in others.
  13. ^ a b Votes for Jesse Ventura and Cynthia McKinney, who were nominated to the ballot by the Green Party of Alaska instead of the national candidates,[319] are included in others. Hawkins/Walker may have received write-in votes, which were not reported individually and are also included in others.
  14. ^ Others and total votes include votes for the ballot option "none of these candidates", which are counted as valid votes by the Federal Election Commission.
  15. ^ Additional candidates may have received write-in votes, which were not reported and are not included in others, total votes or percentages.
  16. ^ This table reflects the results certified by the state, which recorded fewer votes in Suffolk County than those reported by the county.[320]
  17. ^ a b c d These candidates may have received write-in votes, which were not reported and are not reflected in total votes or percentages.
  18. ^ This table reflects the results certified by the state, which recorded some write-in votes differently from those reported by some counties.[321][322]
  19. ^ "[T]he GSA Administrator ascertains the apparent successful candidate once a winner is clear based on the process laid out in the Constitution."[437]

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Further reading

  • Karni, Annie (October 12, 2020). "The Crowded, Competitive World of Anti-Trump G.O.P. Groups". The New York Times. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  • Wasserman, Dave (October 1, 2020). "Trump Is Winning the Voter Registration Battle Against Biden in Key States". NBC News. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  • Witte, Griff; Kelley, Pam; Spolar, Christine (October 11, 2020). "As Trump Stumbles, Voters Finalize Their Choices, and Biden's Lead Grows". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2020.

External links

  • General Elections, 3 November 2020, Reports and findings from the OSCE/ODIHR election observation mission