Un golpe de estado ( / ˌ k ü d eɪ t ɑː / ( escuchar ) ; francés para "golpe de Estado") o simplemente golpe de estado [1] es la extracción y captura de un gobierno y sus poderes. Por lo general, es una toma del poder ilegal e inconstitucional por parte de una facción política, el ejército o un dictador. [2] Muchos estudiosos consideran que un golpe tiene éxito cuando los usurpadores toman y mantienen el poder durante al menos siete días. [2]
Etimología
El término proviene del golpe de Estado francés , que literalmente significa "golpe de Estado" o "golpe de Estado". [3] [4] [5] En francés, la palabra État ( francés: [eta] ) se escribe con mayúscula cuando denota una entidad política soberana. [6]
Aunque el concepto de golpe de Estado ha aparecido en la política desde la antigüedad, la frase es de acuñación relativamente reciente; [7] el Oxford English Dictionary lo identifica como una expresión francesa que significa "golpe de estado". [3] La frase no apareció en un texto en inglés antes del siglo XIX, excepto cuando se usó en la traducción de una fuente francesa, ya que no existía una frase simple en inglés para transmitir la idea contextualizada de un 'golpe de gracia para la administración existente dentro de un estado '.
Un uso temprano en el texto traducido del francés fue en 1785 en una traducción impresa de una carta de un comerciante francés, comentando un decreto arbitrario o arrêt emitido por el rey francés que restringía la importación de lana británica. [8] Lo que puede ser su primer uso publicado dentro de un texto compuesto en inglés es una nota del editor en el London Morning Chronicle , el 7 de enero de 1802, que informa del arresto por Napoleón en Francia de Moreau , Berthier , Masséna y Bernadotte : "There Fue un informe que circulaba ayer sobre una especie de golpe de Estado que tuvo lugar en Francia, como consecuencia de alguna formidable conspiración contra el gobierno existente ".
En British Propaganda, la frase pasó a utilizarse para describir los diversos asesinatos cometidos por la supuesta policía secreta de Napoleón, la Gens d'Armes d'Elite , que ejecutó al duque de Enghien : "los actores en la tortura, los distribuidores de los borradores de envenenamiento, y los verdugos secretos de aquellos desafortunados individuos o familias, a quienes las medidas de seguridad de Bonaparte exigen remover. En lo que los tiranos revolucionarios llaman grandes golpes de estado , como matar, envenenar o ahogar, en masa , son empleados exclusivamente . " [9]
Términos relacionados
Golpe de estado
Putsch ( [pʊtʃ] ), del suizo-alemán "golpe", es otra palabra para golpe de estado, utilizada para el Kapp Putsch de 1920 y otros golpes en la Alemania de Weimar [10] como el Küstrin Putsch y el fallido Beer Hall Putsch de 1923 de Adolf Hitler. El Putsch de Argel de 1961 y el Putsch de agosto de 1991 también utilizan el término.
En alemán, el término se acuñó inicialmente para el Züriputsch del 6 de septiembre de 1839 en Suiza; El golpe denota las acciones político-militares de un golpe de Estado reaccionario minoritario fallido. [11] [12] [13]
Durante la Noche de los Cuchillos Largos en 1934, Hitler y otros miembros del partido nazi utilizaron el golpe de Estado como desinformación para afirmar falsamente que tenían que reprimir un golpe reaccionario. Los alemanes todavía usan el término Röhm-Putsch para describir el evento, el término que le dio el régimen nazi, a pesar de la insinuación no probada de que los asesinatos eran necesarios para evitar un golpe. Por lo tanto, los autores alemanes a menudo usan comillas o escriben sobre el sogenannter Röhm-Putsch ('el llamado Röhm Putsch') para enfatizar. [14]
Pronunciamiento
Pronunciamiento ("pronunciamiento") es un término de origen español para un tipo especial de golpe de estado . El pronunciamiento es la explicación formal de la deposición del gobierno reinante, justificando la instalación del nuevo gobierno que se efectuó con el golpe de estado . Una "revuelta de cuartel" o cuartelazo es también un término para revuelta militar, del término español cuartel ("cuarto" o "cuartel"). Las guarniciones militares específicas son el factor desencadenante de una revuelta militar mayor contra el gobierno. [15]
Un autor hace una distinción entre golpe y pronunciamiento . En un golpe, son los militares, los paramilitares o la facción política opositora la que depone al gobierno actual y asume el poder; mientras que, en el pronunciamiento , los militares deponen al gobierno existente e instalan un gobierno aparentemente civil. [dieciséis]
Otro
Desde el siglo XX, ha surgido una creciente proliferación de términos para describir varios tipos de tomas unilaterales del poder reales o intentadas. Estos fenómenos, a veces llamados "golpes con adjetivos", incluyen: [17]
- golpe de la sociedad civil
- golpe constitucional
- golpe democrático
- golpe electoral
- golpe judicial
- golpe de mercado
- golpe militar
- golpe neoliberal
- golpe parlamentario
- golpe presidencial
- autogolpe ( autogolpe )
- golpe a cámara lenta
- golpe suave ( golpe posmoderno) [18]
La cuestión de qué término, si lo hay, es aplicable a un evento político dado puede ser un asunto subjetivo y conlleva implicaciones normativas, analíticas y políticas. [17]
Historia
Según el conjunto de datos del golpe de Clayton Thyne y Jonathan Powell, hubo 457 intentos de golpe entre 1950 y 2010, de los cuales 227 (49,7%) tuvieron éxito y 230 (50,3%) fracasaron. [3] Hallan que los golpes de estado "han sido más comunes en África y las Américas (36,5% y 31,9%, respectivamente). Asia y Oriente Medio han experimentado el 13,1% y el 15,8% del total de golpes mundiales, respectivamente. Europa ha experimentado por con mucho, el menor número de intentos de golpe: 2,6% ". [3] La mayoría de los intentos de golpe ocurrieron a mediados de la década de 1960, pero también hubo un gran número de intentos de golpe a mediados de la década de 1970 y principios de la de 1990. [3] De 1950 a 2010, la mayoría de los golpes fracasaron en Oriente Medio y América Latina. Tenían una probabilidad algo mayor de éxito en África y Asia. [19] El número de golpes de Estado exitosos ha disminuido con el tiempo. [3] Los golpes que ocurrieron en el período posterior a la Guerra Fría han tenido más probabilidades de resultar en sistemas democráticos que los golpes previos a la Guerra Fría, [20] [21] [22] aunque los golpes todavía perpetúan en su mayoría el autoritarismo . [19] Los golpes de Estado que ocurren durante las guerras civiles acortan la duración de la guerra. [23] La investigación sugiere que las protestas estimulan los golpes, ya que ayudan a las élites dentro del aparato estatal a coordinar los golpes. [24]
A 2016 study categorizes coups into four possible outcomes:[21]
- Failed coup
- No regime change, such as when a leader is illegally shuffled out of power without changing the identity of the group in power or the rules for governing
- Replacement of incumbent dictatorship with another
- Ousting of the dictatorship followed by democratization (also called "democratic coups")[25]
The study also found that about half of all coups—both during and after the Cold War—install new autocratic regimes.[21] New dictatorships launched by coups engage in higher levels of repression in the year that follows the coup than existed in the year leading to the coup.[21] One-third of coups during the Cold War and 10% of post-Cold War coups reshuffled the regime leadership.[21] Democracies were installed in the wake of 12% of Cold War coups and 40% of post-Cold War coups.[21]
Predictores
A 2003 review of the academic literature found that the following factors were associated with coups:
- officers' personal grievances
- military organizational grievances
- military popularity
- military attitudinal cohesiveness
- economic decline
- domestic political crisis
- contagion from other regional coups
- external threat
- participation in war
- collusion with a foreign military power
- military's national security doctrine
- officers' political culture
- noninclusive institutions
- colonial legacy
- economic development
- undiversified exports
- officers' class composition
- military size
- strength of civil society
- regime legitimacy and past coups.[26]
The literature review in a 2016 study includes mentions of ethnic factionalism, supportive foreign governments, leader inexperience, slow growth, commodity price shocks, and poverty.[27]
Coups have been found to appear in environments that are heavily influenced by military powers. Multiple of the above factors are connected to military culture and power dynamics. These factors can be divided into multiple categories, with two of these categories being threat to military interests and support for military interests. If interests go in either direction, the military will find itself either capitalizing off that power or attempting to gain it back.
The cumulative number of coups is a strong predictor of future coups.[26][28][29] Hybrid regimes are more vulnerable to coups than are very authoritarian states or democratic states.[30] A 2021 study found that democratic regimes were not substantially more likely to experience coups.[31] A 2015 study finds that terrorism is strongly associated with re-shuffling coups.[32] A 2016 study finds that there is an ethnic component to coups: "When leaders attempt to build ethnic armies, or dismantle those created by their predecessors, they provoke violent resistance from military officers."[33] Another 2016 study shows that protests increase the risk of coups, presumably because they ease coordination obstacles among coup plotters and make international actors less likely to punish coup leaders.[34] A third 2016 study finds that coups become more likely in the wake of elections in autocracies when the results reveal electoral weakness for the incumbent autocrat.[35] A fourth 2016 study finds that inequality between social classes increases the likelihood of coups.[36] A fifth 2016 study finds no evidence that coups are contagious; one coup in a region does not make other coups in the region likely to follow.[37] One study found that coups are more likely to occur in states with small populations, as there are smaller coordination problems for coup-plotters.[38]
A 2017 study found that autocratic leaders whose states were involved in international rivalries over disputed territory were more likely to be overthrown in a coup. The authors of the study provide the following logic for why this is: "Autocratic incumbents invested in spatial rivalries need to strengthen the military in order to compete with a foreign adversary. The imperative of developing a strong army puts dictators in a paradoxical situation: to compete with a rival state, they must empower the very agency—the military—that is most likely to threaten their own survival in office."[39] However, two 2016 studies found that leaders who were involved in militarized confrontations and conflicts were less likely to face a coup.[40][41]
A 2018 study found that coup attempts were less likely in states where the militaries derived significant incomes from peacekeeping missions.[42] The study argued that militaries were dissuaded from staging coups because they feared that the UN would no longer enlist the military in peacekeeping missions.[42]
A 2018 study found that "oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries."[43] The study argues that states which have onshore oil wealth tend to build up their military to protect the oil, whereas states do not do that for offshore oil wealth.[43]
A 2018 study found that the presence of military academies were linked to coups. The authors argue that military academies make it easier for military officers to plan coups, as the schools build networks among military officers.[44]
A 2019 study found that states that had recently signed civil war peace agreements were much more likely to experience coups, in particular when those agreements contained provisions that jeopardized the interests of the military.[45]
A 2019 study found that regional rebellions made coups by the military more likely.[46]
A 2019 study found that when civilian elites are polarized and electoral competition is low, civilian-recruited coups become more likely.[47]
A 2020 study found that elections had a two-sided impact on coup attempts, depending on the state of the economy. During periods of economic expansion, elections reduced the likelihood of coup attempts, whereas elections during economic crises increased the likelihood of coup attempts.[48]
A 2021 study found that oil wealthy nations see a pronounced risk of coup attempts but these coups are unlikely to succeed.[49]
In autocracies, the frequency of coups seems to be affected by the succession rules in place, with monarchies with a fixed succession rule being much less plagued by instability than less institutionalized autocracies.[50][51][52]
Coup-proofing
In what is referred to as "coup-proofing," regimes create structures that make it hard for any small group to seize power. These coup-proofing strategies may include the strategic placing of family, ethnic, and religious groups in the military; creation of an armed force parallel to the regular military; and development of multiple internal security agencies with overlapping jurisdiction that constantly monitor one another.[53] It may also involved frequent salary hikes and promotions for members of the military.[54] Research shows that some coup-proofing strategies reduce the risk of coups occurring.[55][56] However, coup-proofing reduces military effectiveness,[57][58][59][60][61] and limits the rents that an incumbent can extract.[62]
A 2016 study shows that the implementation of succession rules reduce the occurrence of coup attempts.[63] Succession rules are believed to hamper coordination efforts among coup plotters by assuaging elites who have more to gain by patience than by plotting.[63]
According to political scientists Curtis Bell and Jonathan Powell, coup attempts in neighbouring countries lead to greater coup-proofing and coup-related repression in a region.[64] A 2017 study finds that countries' coup-proofing strategies are heavily influenced by other countries with similar histories.[65] Coup-proofing is more likely in former French colonies.[66]
A 2018 study in the Journal of Peace Research found that leaders who survive coup attempts and respond by purging known and potential rivals are likely to have longer tenures as leaders.[67] A 2019 study in Conflict Management and Peace Science found that personalist dictatorships are more likely to take coup-proofing measures than other authoritarian regimes; the authors argue that this is because "personalists are characterized by weak institutions and narrow support bases, a lack of unifying ideologies and informal links to the ruler."[68]
Impacto
Democracy
Research suggests that coups promoting democratization in staunchly authoritarian regimes have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that the positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War.[20][21][69][70][71]
A 2014 study found that "coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise".[69] The authors argue that coup attempts can have this consequence because leaders of successful coups have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth, while leaders who stay in power after failed coup attempts see it as a sign that they must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power.[69] A 2014 study found that 40% of post-Cold War coups were successful. The authors argue that this may be due to the incentives created by international pressure.[20] A 2016 study found that democracies were installed in 12% of Cold War coups and 40% of the post-Cold War coups.[21] A 2020 study found that coups tended to lead to increases in state repression, not reductions.[72]
According to a 2020 study, "external reactions to coups play important roles in whether coup leaders move toward authoritarianism or democratic governance. When supported by external democratic actors, coup leaders have an incentive to push for elections to retain external support and consolidate domestic legitimacy. When condemned, coup leaders are apt to trend toward authoritarianism to assure their survival."[73]
According to legal scholar Ilya Somin a coup to forcibly overthrow democratic government might be sometimes justified. He wrote:
There should be a strong presumption against forcibly removing a democratic regime. But that presumption might be overcome if the government in question poses a grave threat to human rights, or is likely to destroy democracy itself by shutting down future political competition.[74]
Repression and counter-coups
According to Naunihal Singh, author of Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups (2014), it is "fairly rare" for the prevailing existing government to violently purge the army after a coup has been foiled. If it starts the mass killing of elements of the army, including officers who were not involved in the coup, this may trigger a "counter-coup" by soldiers who are afraid they will be next. To prevent such a desperate counter-coup that may be more successful than the initial attempt, governments usually resort to firing prominent officers and replacing them with loyalists instead.[75]
Some research suggests that increased repression and violence typically follow both successful and unsuccessful coup attempts.[76] However, some tentative analysis by political scientist Jay Ulfelder finds no clear pattern of deterioration in human rights practices in wake of failed coups in post-Cold War era.[77]
Notable counter-coups include the Ottoman countercoup of 1909, the 1960 Laotian counter-coup, the Indonesian mass killings of 1965–66, the 1966 Nigerian counter-coup, the 1967 Greek counter-coup, 1971 Sudanese counter-coup, and the Coup d'état of December Twelfth in South Korea.
A 2017 study finds that the use of state broadcasting by the putschist regime after Mali's 2012 coup did not elevate explicit approval for the regime.[78]
According to a 2019 study, coup attempts lead to a reduction in physical integrity rights.[79]
International response
The international community tends to react adversely to coups by reducing aid and imposing sanctions. A 2015 study finds that "coups against democracies, coups after the Cold War, and coups in states heavily integrated into the international community are all more likely to elicit global reaction."[80] Another 2015 study shows that coups are the strongest predictor for the imposition of democratic sanctions.[81] A third 2015 study finds that Western states react strongest against coups of possible democratic and human rights abuses.[81] A 2016 study shows that the international donor community in the post-Cold War period penalizes coups by reducing foreign aid.[82] The US has been inconsistent in applying aid sanctions against coups both during the Cold War and post-Cold War periods, a likely consequence of its geopolitical interests.[82]
Organizations such as the African Union (AU) and the Organization of American States (OAS) have adopted anti-coup frameworks. Through the threat of sanctions, the organizations actively try to curb coups. A 2016 study finds that the AU has played a meaningful role in reducing African coups.[83]
A 2017 study found that negative international responses, especially from powerful actors, have a significant effect in shortening the duration of regimes created in coups.[84]
According to a 2020 study, coups increase the cost of borrowing and increase the likelihood of sovereign default.[85]
Líderes actuales que asumieron el poder mediante golpes de Estado
Position | Post-coup leader | Deposed leader | Country | Event | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
President | Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo | Francisco Macías Nguema | Equatorial Guinea | 1979 Equatoguinean coup d'état | 3 August 1979 |
President | Yoweri Museveni | Tito Okello | Uganda | Ugandan Bush War | 29 January 1986 |
President | Emomali Rahmon | Rahmon Nabiyev[n 1] | Tajikistan | Tajikistani Civil War | 19 November 1992 |
Prime Minister | Hun Sen | Norodom Ranariddh | Cambodia | 1997 Cambodian coup d'état | August 1997 |
President | Denis Sassou Nguesso | Pascal Lissouba | Congo | Republic of the Congo Civil War | 25 October 1997 |
Prime Minister | Frank Bainimarama | Laisenia Qarase | Fiji | 2006 Fijian coup d'état | 5 December 2006 |
President | Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | Mohamed Morsi | Egypt | 2013 Egyptian coup d'état | 3 July 2013 |
Prime Minister | Prayut Chan-o-cha | Yingluck Shinawatra[n 2] | Thailand | 2014 Thai coup d'état | 22 May 2014 |
President of the Supreme Political Council | Mahdi al-Mashat | Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi[n 3] | Yemen | 2014–15 Yemeni coup d'état | 6 February 2015 |
President | Emmerson Mnangagwa | Robert Mugabe[n 4] | Zimbabwe | 2017 Zimbabwean coup d'état | 24 November 2017 |
Chairman of the Sovereignty Council | Abdel Fattah al-Burhan | Omar al-Bashir | Sudan | 2019 Sudanese coup d'état | 21 August 2019 |
Chairman of the State Administration Council | Min Aung Hlaing | Aung San Suu Kyi | Myanmar | 2021 Myanmar coup d'état | 1 February 2021 |
Chairman of the National Committeefor the Salvation of the People of Mali | Assimi Goïta | Bah Ndaw | Mali | 2021 Malian coup d'état | 25 May 2021 |
- ^ Nabiyev was forced to resign by government militia on 7 September 1992, with Emomali Rahmon assumed interim power in November.[86]
- ^ De facto Prime Minister at that time, but under court order to resign.
- ^ Hadi was forced to resign by Houthi rebels on 22 January 2015, but later renounced his resignation. The coup culminated into a civil war.
- ^ Mugabe resigned on 21 November 2017.
Ver también
- Assassination
- Civilian-based defense
- Civil-military relations
- Civilian control of the military
- Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook
- Coup de main
- Kleptocracy
- Leadership spill
- List of protective service agencies
- Military dictatorship
- Political corruption
- Political warfare
- Sabotage
- Self-coup
- Seven Days in May
- Soft coup
- State collapse
Referencias
- ^ "Coup". Cambridge Dictionary. Retrieved 5 February 2021.
- ^ a b Powell, Jonathan M.; Thyne, Clayton L. (1 March 2011). "Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010 A new dataset". Journal of Peace Research. 48 (2): 249–259. doi:10.1177/0022343310397436. ISSN 0022-3433. S2CID 9066792.
- ^ a b c d e f "Coup d'état". Oxford Dictionaries. Archived from the original on 6 November 2015. Retrieved 12 January 2019.
- ^ "Coup d'état". Merriam Webster.
- ^ "Turkey Coup". Merriam Webster. 15 July 2016. Retrieved 5 February 2021.
- ^ "Banque de dépannage linguistique – état". Office québécois de la langue française. Archived from the original on 1 July 2012. Retrieved 12 December 2012.
- ^ Julius Caesar's civil war, 5 January 49 BC.
- ^ Norfolk Chronicle, 13 August 1785: "It is thought here by some, that it is a Coup d'Etat played off as a prelude to a disagreeable after-piece. But I can confidently assure you, that the above-mentioned arret was promulgated in consequence of innumerable complaints and murmurs which have found their way to the ears of the Sovereign. Our merchants contend, that they experience the greatest difficulties in trading with the English".
- ^ "unk". Kentish Gazette. Canterbury. 16 October 1804. p. 2.
- ^ "Definition of putsch: Did you know?". Merriam Webster. Retrieved 16 February 2021.
- ^ Etymology and definition of Putsch in German
- ^ Kleine Zürcher Verfassungsgeschichte 1218–2000 (PDF) (in German). Zurich: State Archives of the Canton of Zurich. 13 September 2000. p. 51. Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 March 2021.
See section "ZÜRIPUTSCH UND BRUCH DER VERFASSUNG. STEHT DER SOUVERÄN ÜBER DER VERFASSUNG?" (ZURIPUTSCH AND BREACH OF THE CONSTITUTION. IS THE SOVEREIGN ABOVE THE CONSTITUTION?).
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- ^ "Röhm-Putsch" (in German). Deutsches Historisches Museum (DHM), German Historical Museum. Retrieved 26 March 2016.
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- ^ Luttwak, Edward (1979). Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-17547-1.
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- ^ Tufekci, Zeynep (7 December 2020). "'This Must Be Your First'". The Atlantic.
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- ^ Przeworski, Adam; Alvarez, Michael E.; Cheibub, Jose Antonio; Limongi, Fernando (2000). Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and Well-Being in the World, 1950–1990. Cambridge Studies in the Theory of Democracy. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 9780521793797.
- ^ Londregan, John B.; Poole, Keith T. (1 January 1990). "Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power". World Politics. 42 (2): 151–183. doi:10.2307/2010462. ISSN 1086-3338. JSTOR 2010462.(subscription required)
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Otras lecturas
- Luttwak, Edward (1979) Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0-674-17547-1.
- De Bruin, Erica (2020) How to Prevent Coups d'État. Cornell University Press.
- Schiel, R., Powell, J., & Faulkner, C. (2020). "Mutiny in Africa, 1950–2018". Conflict Management and Peace Science.
- Singh, Naunihal. (2014) Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Johns Hopkins University Press.
- Malaparte, Curzio (1931). Technique du Coup d'État (in French). Paris.
- Finer, S.E. (1962). The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. London: Pall Mall Press. p. 98.
- Goodspeed, D. J. (1962). Six Coups d'État. New-York: Viking Press Inc.
- Connor, Ken; Hebditch, David (2008). How to Stage a Military Coup: From Planning to Execution. Pen and Sword Books Ltd. ISBN 978-1-84832-503-6.
- McGowan, Patrick J. (2016). "Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004". Armed Forces & Society. 32: 5–23. doi:10.1177/0095327X05277885. S2CID 144318327.
- McGowan, Patrick J. (2016). "Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004". Armed Forces & Society. 32 (2): 234–253. doi:10.1177/0095327X05277886. S2CID 144602647.
- Beeson, Mark (2008). "Civil–Military Relations in Indonesia and the Philippines". Armed Forces & Society. 34 (3): 474–490. doi:10.1177/0095327X07303607. S2CID 144520194.
- n'Diaye, Boubacar (2016). "How Not to Institutionalize Civilian Control: Kenya's Coup Prevention Strategies, 1964-1997". Armed Forces & Society. 28 (4): 619–640. doi:10.1177/0095327X0202800406. S2CID 145783304.
enlaces externos
- The dictionary definition of coup d'état at Wiktionary
- Media related to Coups d'état at Wikimedia Commons
- John J. Chin, David B. Carter & Joseph G. Wright. Dataset on all military and non-military coup attempts in the world since 1946.
- Powell, Jonathan & Clayton Thyne. Global Instances of Coups from 1950-Present.