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Este artículo trata sobre el concepto de indicador de tendencia. Para el libro de Connie Willis, vea Bellwether (novela) . Para el personaje de ficción en la película Zootopia, vea Zootopia .

Un referente es un líder o indicador de tendencias. El término deriva del inglés medio bellewether y se refiere a la práctica de colocar una campana alrededor del cuello de un carnero castrado (un wether ) que conduce el rebaño de ovejas . Un pastor podía notar los movimientos del rebaño al escuchar la campana, incluso cuando el rebaño no estaba a la vista.

En sociología , el término se aplica en sentido activo a una persona o grupo de personas que tienden a crear, influir o marcar tendencias . En política , el término se aplica más a menudo en un sentido metafórico para describir una región geográfica donde las tendencias políticas coinciden en microcosmos con las de un área más amplia, de modo que el resultado de una elección en la primera región podría predecir el resultado final en la segunda. En una elección al estilo de Westminster , por ejemplo, un distrito electoral , cuyo control tiende a cambiar con frecuencia, puede reflejar en su voto popular el resultado a escala nacional.

En el mercado de valores , un referente es una acción que se considera un indicador adelantado de la dirección en un sector, una industria o el mercado en su conjunto. Por lo tanto, las acciones de Bellwether sirven como guías a corto plazo. [1] JPMorgan Chase es un ejemplo de acción líder. Como uno de los principales bancos de Estados Unidos, marca la pauta para el resto de la industria. JPMorgan Chase también tiene contratos con empresas de otras industrias, por lo que su desempeño se refleja en otros sectores del mercado. Tata Consultancy Services es igualmente un referente para las acciones de tecnología en los mercados indios, BSE y NSE . [2]

Política [ editar ]

Australia [ editar ]

En las elecciones federales australianas , la División de Robertson en Nueva Gales del Sur se convirtió en el nuevo escaño de referencia más antiguo de la nación, ganado continuamente por el partido que también ganó el gobierno desde las elecciones federales de 1983 .

Anteriormente, la división electoral de Eden-Monaro eligió a su miembro del Parlamento del partido que ganó el gobierno en todas las elecciones federales desde 1972 hasta 2016 , cuando se rompió el récord después de que los laboristas obtuvieron el escaño, mientras que la Coalición ganó el gobierno. La División de Lindsay en Nueva Gales del Sur ha elegido a su miembro del Parlamento del partido que ganó el gobierno en todas las elecciones federales desde su creación en 1984 hasta 2016. Tanto Lindsay como Eden-Monaro perdieron su estatus de líderes en las elecciones federales de 2016 , y ambos eligieron a Labor Los diputados, a pesar de una estrecha Coalición, ganan a nivel nacional.

La División de Makin en Australia del Sur fue una división pionera de 1984 a 2010, aunque dejó de ser pionera en 2013, cuando Makin se mantuvo laborista mientras la Coalición recuperó el poder en todo el país. Además, en términos de voto preferencial de dos partidos a nivel nacional, Eden-Monaro , Lindsay , Robertson y Makin se han opuesto a la tendencia pionera en el pasado al votar por los liberales en las elecciones federales de 1998 . En términos puramente estadísticos, el estado de Nueva Gales del Sur , que tiene la mayor población de todos los estados o territorios australianos, también podría considerarse un "referente", ya que, hasta las elecciones federales de 2016el partido que gana el gobierno ha ganado la mayoría de los escaños de la Cámara de Representantes en ese estado en todas las elecciones desde 1963 . A diferencia de muchos indicadores, los analistas los citan únicamente para su historial y, por lo general, no se atribuyen a factores demográficos que reflejan la mediana de Australia.

Brasil [ editar ]

En las elecciones presidenciales directas brasileñas , el estado de Minas Gerais es donde el candidato ganador tomó la delantera en la última vuelta electoral de 1955 a 2018 . [3]

Canadá [ editar ]

En la provincia canadiense de Ontario , Sarnia-Lambton (y sus circunscripciones predecesoras) votaron por el partido ganador en todas las elecciones federales desde 1963 hasta 2011. Esta racha se rompió en 2015. St. Paul's solo ha elegido a tres diputados de la oposición desde que se creó en 1935. También en Ontario, Peterborough ha elegido sistemáticamente al partido que ganó las elecciones provinciales desde 1977. En Alberta , Peace River ha elegido sólo tres MLA de la oposición desde que se fundó la provincia en 1905.

Francia [ editar ]

Mapa de líderes en Francia

Desde el establecimiento de la Quinta República francesa, el presidente fue elegido por votación popular en 1965 hasta 2017 , cinco departamentos siempre han votado al candidato elegido en la segunda ronda: Ardèche , Calvados , Charente-Maritime , Indre-et-Loire y Loire . Ninguna región lo ha hecho en la primera ronda. [4]

Alemania [ editar ]

Desde la creación de la República Federal de Alemania (entonces Alemania Occidental ) en 1949, el estado donde el voto de la lista del partido líder ( Zweitstimmen ) coincidió con el partido del Canciller elegido posteriormente es Schleswig-Holstein (con dos fallos: 1969 y 2005 ), seguido del estado de Baja Sajonia (con fallas en 1949 , 1969 y 2005). Ambos estados se encuentran en el norte del país, ninguno de los cuales contiene muchas grandes ciudades industriales (las más grandes son Kiel y Hannoverrespectivamente), ni grandes poblaciones católicas rurales, la base tradicional del SPD y CDU / CSU respectivamente. Schleswig-Holstein también es famoso por haber tenido varias elecciones estatales que dieron como resultado una mayoría de un escaño para la coalición ganadora y la elección de Baja Sajonia de 1998 (en la que Gerhard Schröder fue el candidato del SPD) se considera a menudo como una "prueba" para la siguiente elección federal (que también ganó Schröder). Tanto las elecciones de 1949 como las de 1969 fueron bastante estrechas, la primera resultó en una mayoría de un voto en la elección para canciller y la segunda resultó en una mayoría de 12 escaños que se había derrumbado debido a las deserciones en 1972.

India [ editar ]

Dos escaños individuales, Valsad y West Delhi han votado con éxito por el partido victorioso de las últimas once elecciones generales. [5]

Además, el partido que gana la mayoría de los escaños en Delhi siempre ha pasado a formar el gobierno nacional desde 1998 [6].

El estado de Uttar Pradesh también se ve como un referente, ya que el gobierno nacional ha sido formado la mayoría de las veces por el partido que obtuvo la mayor cantidad de escaños en el estado. [7]

Irlanda [ editar ]

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 general election and 2011 general election, Meath and its successors, Meath East and Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand[edit]

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East and Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton,[8] and Northcote on Auckland's North Shore.[9] Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the 1993 election for Hamilton West and the 2005 election for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the National Party in the 2017 election although Labour formed the government after the election. Since the National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

Philippines[edit]

In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 except for 1961 and 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973 (first election in 1981). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Agusan del Norte and Lanao del Sur have the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the 1969 election.

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 and 2016.

Portugal[edit]

In every general election to the National Assembly since the restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

Romania[edit]

Presidential elections[edit]

The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:

  • Bucharest - 1 miss (2014), from 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
  • Constanța - 1 miss (2014), from 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
  • Alba - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Arad - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Bihor - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Brașov - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Cluj - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Sibiu - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Timiș - 2 misses (1992 and 2000), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
  • Prahova - 2 misses (1996 and 2014), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
  • Ilfov - 2 misses (2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
  • Bistrița-Năsăud - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
  • Satu Mare - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
  • Sălaj - 3 misses (1992, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
  • Maramureș - 3 misses (1996, 2000 and 2004), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
  • Suceava - 3 misses (1996, 2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
  • Caraș-Severin - 3 misses (2000, 2004 and 2014), from 1990 on (63%, 5/8).

South Korea[edit]

Since the 1987 presidential election, the central province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the presidency was the national winner.

Spain[edit]

Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019- two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Zaragoza and Huesca). The Autonomous Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.[10]

Sweden[edit]

The expression "Som Ljungby röstar röstar Sverige" ("As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes") was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag.[11]

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.[12][11]

Taiwan[edit]

From the first competitive multi-party elections in 1996 on, the Changhua County was the region of Taiwan where the leading presidential candidate became the elected president of the country.

United Kingdom[edit]

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late-1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

Long running bellwether constituencies

  • The Dartford constituency has reflected the overall result at every general election since 1964.
  • The Portsmouth North constituency, and its predecessor Portsmouth West, have reflected every overall result since 1966.
  • The Loughborough, Northampton North and Watford constituencies have reflected every result since the February 1974 general election.
  • The Worcester constituency has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979.
  • The Stourbridge constituency, and its predecessor, Halesowen and Stourbridge, has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979.
  • The Reading West, Amber Valley, Norwich North, Hastings and Rye and Corby constituencies have reflected every result since 1983
  • The Nuneaton constituency has been seen as an important national bellwether since 1997.[13]

Former bellwether constituencies

  • The Gravesham constituency (and its predecessor Gravesend) has reflected the overall result from 1955, with the only exception being 2005.
  • The Luton South constituency (and its predecessors Luton East and Luton) had reflected the overall result from 1951 until 2010.
  • The Brentford and Isleworth constituency had reflected the overall result from 1979 until 2015.
  • The Bristol North West constituency had reflected every result since the October 1974 election until 2017.
  • The Lincoln constituency has reflected the overall result from the October 1974 election, with the only exception being 2017.
  • The Bury North constituency has reflected the overall result from 1983, with the only exception being 2017.
  • The Battersea constituency had reflected every result from 1987 until 2017.
  • The Basildon constituency reflected every result from its creation in 1974 to its abolition in 2010.
  • The Southampton Test constituency reflected every result from 1966 to 2010.

Scottish Parliament[edit]

The constituencies of Cunninghame North, Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament election.

Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley, Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 and 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their predecessor constituencies (Livingston, Dundee West, Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Fife Central) achieved in the 1999, 2003 and 2007 elections.

Senedd Cymru[edit]

The following constituencies (as of the 2016 election) have elected MSs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Senedd (and former Assembly) election since 1999:

  • Aberavon
  • Alyn and Deeside
  • Bridgend
  • Caerphilly
  • Cardiff South and Penarth
  • Cardiff West
  • Clwyd South
  • Cynon Valley
  • Delyn
  • Gower
  • Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
  • Neath
  • Newport East
  • Newport West
  • Ogmore
  • Pontypridd
  • Swansea East
  • Swansea West
  • Torfaen
  • Vale of Clwyd
  • Vale of Glamorgan

Note that as Labour has won the most seats in every election since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour.

United States[edit]

States[edit]

The states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; their streaks only date back to 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

  • Ohio – 3 misses (1944, 1960, 2020) from 1896 on (90.6%, slightly "too Republican").
  • Nevada – 3 misses (1908, 1976, 2016) from 1904 on (90.0%, slightly "too Democratic").
  • New Mexico – 3 misses (1976, 2000, 2016) from 1912 on (89.3%, slightly "too Democratic"). Currently the longest streak of tracking with the national popular vote.
  • Florida – 3 misses (1960, 1992, 2020) from 1928 on (87.5%, slightly "too Republican").

Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:[14]

  • Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%)
  • New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%)
  • Illinois – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)
  • Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012[15] include:

  • Ohio – 2.2%
  • New Mexico – 2.8%
  • Illinois – 3.6%
  • Missouri – 3.7%
  • Delaware – 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include:

  • Arizona – Perfect from 1912 to 1956.
  • Delaware – Perfect from 1952 to 1996, the only state with this distinction.[16] As a result of massive growth and a move to the Democrats in New Castle County, Delaware (suburban Philadelphia, with the old industrial city of Wilmington), the state has become reliably Democratic. New Castle County had previously voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1936 to 1996.
  • North Dakota – Perfect from 1896 to 1936.
  • Kansas – Perfect from 1900 to 1936.
  • Missouri was often referred to as the Missouri bellwether as it produced the same outcome as the national results in the presidential election 96.2% of the time for the century between 1904 and 2004, only missing in 1956. It is considered to have lost its bellwether status following the 2008 election.[17]
  • Washington – 1 miss from 1900 to 1956 (in 1912).
  • Minnesota – 1 miss from 1920 to 1976 (in 1968).
  • Texas – 1 miss from 1928 to 1988 (in 1968).
  • Arkansas – 1 miss from 1960 to 2004 (in 1968).
  • Idaho – 2 misses (1960, 1976) from 1904 to 1988.
  • Tennessee – 2 misses (1924, 1960) from 1912 to 2004.
  • New Jersey – 2 misses (1948, 1976) from 1920 to 1996.
  • Virginia – 2 misses (1960, 1976) from 1928 to 1988. Was traditionally Republican at the time. Otherwise, the state was traditionally Democratic. Although the 2012 election was not included in this bellwether run, Virginia was actually the closest state to the national vote in 2012. Donald Trump, however, managed to win in the next election without Virginia.
  • Illinois – 3 misses (1884, 1916, 1976) from 1852 to 1996, the most reliable in this period.[18] As the Chicago metropolitan area shifted to become overwhelmingly Democratic, the state lost its bellwether status. No Republican had ever won the White House without taking Illinois prior to 2000.
  • California – 3 misses (1912, 1960, 1976) from 1888 to 1996.
  • Utah – 3 misses (1912, 1960, 1976) from 1900 to 1988.
  • Wyoming – 3 misses (1944, 1960, 1976) from 1900 to 1988.
  • Montana – 3 misses (1960, 1976, 1996) from 1904 to 2004.
  • Kentucky – 3 misses (1920, 1952, 1960) from 1912 to 2004.
  • Oklahoma – 3 misses (1924, 1960, 1976) from 1912 to 1988.
  • New Hampshire – 3 misses (1948, 1960, 1976) from 1936 to 2000.
  • Colorado – 3 misses (1960, 1976, 1996) from 1948 to 2012.
  • Iowa – 3 misses (1976, 1988, 2000) from 1964 to 2016.

States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include:

  • Pennsylvania - One miss from 1800 to 1880 (in 1824).
  • Indiana – One miss from 1852 to 1912 (in 1876).
  • Wisconsin - One miss from 1860 to 1912 (in 1884).
  • New York – One miss from 1880 to 1944 (in 1916). It previously had a perfect streak from 1816 to 1852. Had the most electoral votes during the entire period.

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 to 2012 (100.0%). Guam has no electoral college votes, but conducts a presidential straw vote on local election day. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result.[19] Due to the Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. As of 2016, Ohio and Florida were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and political volatility. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so election results from Ohio are a good indicator of how successful that party's candidate is. However, it was generally acknowledged that the Democratic candidate tended to have a better chance of winning the presidency without Ohio and Florida. In 2000, the presidential election devolved into a controversial decision in Bush v. Gore which ultimately hinged the contest on a recount of Florida, that – had it gone for Gore – would have swung the Electoral College vote. After the 2020 election, it became clear that Ohio had begun to trend more Republican, and Joe Biden defeated the incumbent Donald J. Trump without winning Ohio or Florida. Arizona, which no Democratic candidate had won since 1996, and Georgia, which no Democratic candidate had won since 1992, both narrowly went to Mr. Biden, apparently replacing Ohio as major swing states.

Counties[edit]

For a list of bellwether counties, see List of election bellwether counties in the United States.

Bellwether report[edit]

The quarterly Bellwether Report, published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.

See also[edit]

  • As Maine goes, so goes the nation
  • Bellwether trial
  • Early adopter
  • Harbinger
  • Peer-mediated instruction
  • Swing state
  • Will it play in Peoria?
  • Sentinel species

References[edit]

  1. ^ Staff, Investopedia (26 October 2009). "Bellwether Stock". investopedia.com.
  2. ^ "How TCS displaced Infosys as the bellwether of India's IT sector". Moneycontrol.
  3. ^ "Category:Brazilian presidential election maps - Wikimedia Commons". commons.wikimedia.org.
  4. ^ "L'élection présidentielle en France - Politiquemania". www.politiquemania.com.
  5. ^ "Lok Sabha polls: A look at India's bellwether seats — whoever wins these, wins the election". Moneycontrol.
  6. ^ DelhiMay 11, Prabhash K. Dutta New; May 11, 2019UPDATED; Ist, 2019 10:12. "With just 7 Lok Sabha seats, Delhi decides who becomes PM". India Today.CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ "Will Uttar Pradesh be 'bellwether' or exception again?". May 20, 2019 – via Business Standard.
  8. ^ Ihaka, James (13 October 2008). "Eyes on tussle in bellwether seat". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011.
  9. ^ Shepheard, Nicola (7 September 2008). "Street shows swing voters". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 19 September 2011.
  10. ^ "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies". electionresources.org.
  11. ^ a b "Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige Archived 2017-03-26 at the Wayback Machine", Statistiska Centralbyrån, 6 March 2006. Retrieved 27 March 2017.
  12. ^ "Karlstad röstar som Sverige | Forskning & Framsteg | Populärvetenskapligt magasin". Fof.se. Retrieved 2012-03-24.
  13. ^ Editorial, Reuters. "Parliamentary bellwether Nuneaton votes strongly for Leave". Retrieved 2016-09-17.
  14. ^ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 22. Political scientists have long regarded 1896 as a seminal, realigning election.
  15. ^ Kondik, Kyle (2016). The Bellwether – Why Ohio Picks The President. Ohio University Press. p. 23.
  16. ^ Sullivan, Robert David. "How Delaware Lost its Bellwether Mojo and Joined the Northeast Corridor". America Magazine. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  17. ^ Shesgreen, Deirdre (24 June 2012). "Missouri slips from political bellwether status this fall". USA Today. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  18. ^ Everson, David (February 1990). "Illinois as a bellwether: So what?". Archived from the original on 15 July 2015. Retrieved 13 August 2016.
  19. ^ Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org.