La guerra comercial entre China y Estados Unidos ( chino :中美贸易战; pinyin : Zhōngměi Màoyìzhàn ) es un conflicto económico en curso entre China y Estados Unidos . El presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, en enero de 2018 comenzó a establecer aranceles y otras barreras comerciales a China con el objetivo de obligarla a realizar cambios en lo que Estados Unidos dice son "prácticas comerciales desleales" y robo de propiedad intelectual . [1] La administración Trump declaró que estas prácticas pueden contribuir al déficit comercial entre Estados Unidos y China.y que el gobierno chino exige la transferencia de tecnología estadounidense a China. [2] En respuesta a las medidas comerciales de Estados Unidos, el gobierno chino ha acusado a la administración Trump de participar en un proteccionismo nacionalista. [3] El 15 de enero de 2020, las dos partes llegaron a un acuerdo de fase uno, sin embargo, las tensiones continuaron persistiendo. Si bien el mandato de Trump terminó en enero de 2021, los expertos esperan que la guerra comercial continúe bajo la administración de Biden, ya que el presidente Joe Biden no tiene planes de poner fin a los aranceles vigentes. [4]
Desde la década de 1980, Trump ha abogado por aranceles para eliminar y poner fin al déficit comercial de Estados Unidos para promover la fabricación nacional, diciendo que el país estaba siendo "estafado" por sus socios comerciales; la imposición de aranceles se convirtió en un elemento importante de su campaña presidencial. [5] Un documento de antecedentes del Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores dijo que, si bien muchos economistas y expertos en comercio no creían que los déficits comerciales perjudicaran a la economía, otros creían que los déficits comerciales sostenidos eran a menudo un problema, y había un debate sustancial sobre cuánto El déficit comercial es causado por gobiernos extranjeros, así como qué políticas, si las hay, deberían aplicarse para reducirlo. [6] Casi todos los economistas que respondieron a las encuestas realizadas por Associated Press y Reuters dijeron que los aranceles de Trump harían más daño que bien a la economía de los Estados Unidos, [7] [8] y algunos economistas abogaron por medios alternativos para el Estados Unidos para abordar su déficit comercial con China. [6] [9] [10] [11] [12]
La guerra comercial ha tenido un impacto negativo en las economías de Estados Unidos y China. [13] [14] [15] En los Estados Unidos, ha provocado precios más altos para los consumidores y dificultades financieras para los agricultores. En China, la guerra comercial contribuyó a una desaceleración de la tasa de crecimiento de la producción económica e industrial, que ya había disminuido. Muchas empresas estadounidenses han trasladado las cadenas de suministro a otras partes de Asia, lo que genera temores de que la guerra comercial conduzca a una "disociación" económica entre Estados Unidos y China. [16] En otros países, la guerra comercial también ha causado daños económicos, aunque algunos países se han beneficiado del aumento de la fabricación para llenar los vacíos. También ha provocado inestabilidad en el mercado de valores. Los gobiernos de todo el mundo han tomado medidas para abordar algunos de los daños causados por el conflicto económico. [17] [18] [19] [20]
A nivel internacional, ha habido apoyo para el objetivo final de la guerra comercial de la administración Trump de tratar de cambiar las políticas comerciales de China, mientras que también ha habido críticas sobre el uso de aranceles y el impacto económico negativo de la guerra comercial. Entre las industrias estadounidenses, las empresas estadounidenses y las industrias agrícolas se han opuesto a la guerra comercial, aunque la mayoría de los agricultores continuaron apoyando a Trump. Entre los políticos estadounidenses, algunos no estaban de acuerdo con las tácticas que empleó Trump, pero la mayoría estuvo de acuerdo con el objetivo de presionar a China. [21]
Fondo
La relación comercial entre Estados Unidos y China
El volumen del comercio de bienes entre Estados Unidos y China ha crecido rápidamente desde el comienzo de las reformas económicas de China a fines de la década de 1970. [22] El crecimiento del comercio se aceleró después de la entrada de China en la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) en 2001, [23] y Estados Unidos y China se convirtieron en los socios comerciales más importantes de cada uno. [22] Estados Unidos ha importado sistemáticamente más de China de lo que ha exportado a China, y el déficit comercial bilateral estadounidense en bienes con China aumentó a 375.600 millones de dólares en 2017. [23]
El gobierno de Estados Unidos ha criticado en ocasiones varios aspectos de la relación comercial entre Estados Unidos y China, incluidos los grandes déficits comerciales bilaterales y los tipos de cambio relativamente inflexibles de China . [22] Las administraciones de George W. Bush y Barack Obama impusieron cuotas y aranceles sobre los textiles chinos para proteger a los productores nacionales estadounidenses, acusando a China de exportar estos productos a precios de dumping . [22] Durante la administración Obama, Estados Unidos también acusó a China de subsidiar la producción de aluminio y acero e inició una serie de investigaciones antidumping contra China. [22] Sin embargo, durante estas dos administraciones estadounidenses, el comercio entre Estados Unidos y China siguió creciendo. [22] Durante este tiempo, la economía de China se convirtió en la segunda más grande del mundo (utilizando tipos de cambio nominales), solo superada por la de Estados Unidos. [24] Las iniciativas económicas chinas a gran escala, como la Iniciativa Belt and Road , el Banco Asiático de Inversión en Infraestructura y " Made in China 2025 " alarmaron a algunos políticos estadounidenses. [24] En términos más generales, el gobierno estadounidense ha considerado el crecimiento económico de China como un desafío al dominio económico y geopolítico estadounidense. [25] [24]
Durante su campaña presidencial de 2016 , Donald Trump prometió reducir el déficit comercial de Estados Unidos con China, que atribuyó a prácticas comerciales desleales, como el robo de propiedad intelectual y la falta de acceso de empresas estadounidenses al mercado chino. [23] Los defensores estadounidenses de los aranceles sobre China han argumentado que los aranceles traerán empleos de manufactura a los EE. UU. que las tarifas bilaterales deben ser recíprocas; que Estados Unidos debería eliminar su déficit comercial con China; y que China debería cambiar varias políticas que rigen la propiedad intelectual y la inversión. [26] La mayoría de los economistas se muestran escépticos sobre la capacidad de los aranceles para lograr los tres primeros de estos objetivos. [26] Un estudio estima que las exportaciones estadounidenses a China brindan apoyo a 1,2 millones de empleos estadounidenses y que las empresas multinacionales chinas emplean directamente a 197.000 estadounidenses, mientras que las empresas estadounidenses invirtieron 105.000 millones de dólares en China en 2019. [27] Los economistas han estudiado el impacto del comercio con China y el aumento de la productividad laboral sobre el empleo en el sector manufacturero estadounidense, con resultados mixtos. [26] [28] [29] [30] La mayoría de los economistas creen que el déficit comercial estadounidense es el resultado de factores macroeconómicos, más que de la política comercial. [26] [22] [24] [31] Si bien se espera que el aumento de los aranceles sobre los productos chinos disminuya las importaciones estadounidenses desde China, se espera que conduzca a un aumento de las importaciones de otros países, dejando el déficit comercial general de los Estados Unidos prácticamente sin cambios - un fenómeno conocido como desvío comercial . [26] [22] [24] [32] [31]
Quejas de la administración Trump
La primera defensa destacada de Donald Trump por los aranceles fue impulsada por el éxito económico japonés en la década de 1980, argumentando que el déficit comercial de Estados Unidos era una carga y que los aranceles promoverían la fabricación nacional que evitaría que Estados Unidos fuera "estafado" por sus socios comerciales. [33] [34] La imposición de aranceles fue posteriormente uno de los principales pilares de su exitosa campaña presidencial de 2016. [35] [36] [37] A principios de 2011, afirmó que debido a que China ha manipulado su moneda, "es casi imposible que nuestras empresas compitan con las empresas chinas". [38]
En las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses de 2016 , Trump se postuló con una plataforma económica proteccionista . [25] Como presidente, en agosto de 2017, ordenó a la Oficina del Representante Comercial de Estados Unidos (USTR) que investigara las prácticas económicas chinas. [25] El informe resultante, publicado en marzo de 2018, atacó muchos aspectos de la política económica china, centrándose particularmente en la supuesta transferencia de tecnología, [25] que, según el informe, le costó a la economía estadounidense $ 225 mil millones y $ 600 mil millones al año. [25] [39] Tras la publicación del informe, Trump ordenó la imposición de aranceles a los productos chinos, la presentación de un caso en la OMC contra China y las restricciones a la inversión china en los sectores de alta tecnología de la economía estadounidense. [25]
Al apoyar los aranceles como presidente, dijo que China le estaba costando a la economía estadounidense cientos de miles de millones de dólares al año debido a prácticas comerciales desleales. Después de imponer aranceles, negó haber entrado en una guerra comercial y dijo que "la guerra comercial la perdieron hace muchos años las personas tontas o incompetentes que representaban a Estados Unidos". Dijo que Estados Unidos tiene un déficit comercial de 500.000 millones de dólares al año. con el robo de propiedad intelectual (PI) que cuesta $ 300 mil millones adicionales. "No podemos permitir que esto continúe", dijo. [40] [41] El ex abogado de la Casa Blanca, Jim Schultz , dijo que "a través de múltiples administraciones presidenciales - Clinton, Bush y Obama - Estados Unidos ha mirado ingenuamente para otro lado mientras China engañaba para obtener una ventaja injusta en el comercio internacional mercado." [42]
Según la administración, las reformas del gobierno chino han sido mínimas y no han sido justas y recíprocas: "Después de años de diálogos entre Estados Unidos y China que produjeron resultados mínimos y compromisos que China no cumplió, Estados Unidos está tomando medidas para enfrentar a China por sus transferencias de tecnología, prácticas de propiedad intelectual e intrusiones cibernéticas de las redes comerciales estadounidenses dirigidas por el estado y que distorsionan el mercado ". [43] [44]
La tecnología se considera la parte más importante de la economía estadounidense. [45] Según el Representante de Comercio de Estados Unidos, Robert E. Lighthizer , China mantiene una política de "transferencia de tecnología forzada", junto con la práctica del "capitalismo de estado", que incluye la compra de empresas de tecnología estadounidenses y el uso del ciberataque para obtener tecnología. [45] Como resultado, los funcionarios de la administración Trump estaban, a principios de 2018, tomando medidas para evitar que las empresas controladas por el estado chino compraran empresas de tecnología estadounidenses y estaban tratando de evitar que las empresas estadounidenses entregaran sus tecnologías clave a China como un costo. de entrar en su mercado. [45] Según el analista político Josh Rogin : "Existía la creencia de que China desarrollaría una economía privada que resultaría compatible con el sistema de la OMC. El liderazgo chino ha tomado una decisión política para hacer lo contrario. Así que ahora tenemos que responder. " [45]
Lighthizer dijo que el valor de las tarifas impuestas se basó en estimaciones estadounidenses del daño económico real causado por el presunto robo de propiedad intelectual y las restricciones a la propiedad extranjera que requieren que las empresas extranjeras transfieran tecnología. [46] [47] Estas empresas conjuntas forzadas dan a las empresas chinas acceso ilícito a la tecnología estadounidense. [58]
Más de la mitad de los miembros de la Cámara de Comercio Estadounidense en la República Popular de China pensaban que la fuga de propiedad intelectual era una preocupación importante al hacer negocios allí. [59]
En agosto de 2017, Robert Lighthizer investigó las supuestas prácticas comerciales desleales de China. [60] [61] [62]
Al iniciar acciones arancelarias sobre el acero y el aluminio en marzo de 2018, Trump dijo que "las guerras comerciales son buenas y fáciles de ganar", [63] pero a medida que el conflicto continuó escalando hasta agosto de 2019, Trump declaró: "Nunca dije que China iba a ser fácil." [64] [65]
Peter Navarro , Director de Política Comercial y Manufactura de la Casa Blanca , explicó que los aranceles son "medidas puramente defensivas" para reducir el déficit comercial. [66] Dice que los billones de dólares acumulados que los estadounidenses transfieren al extranjero como resultado de los déficits anuales son luego utilizados por esos países para comprar activos estadounidenses, en lugar de invertir ese dinero en los EE. UU. "Si hacemos lo que estamos haciendo ... esos billones de dólares están en manos de extranjeros que luego pueden usar para comprar Estados Unidos ". [67]
Respuesta de China y contraacusaciones
El gobierno chino argumenta que el objetivo real del gobierno estadounidense es sofocar el crecimiento de China y que la guerra comercial ha tenido un efecto negativo en el mundo. [23] [68] El gobierno chino ha culpado al gobierno estadounidense por iniciar el conflicto y dijo que las acciones estadounidenses estaban dificultando las negociaciones. [69] [68] Zhang Xiangchen, embajador de China ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio, dijo que el Representante de Comercio de Estados Unidos estaba operando con una "presunción de culpabilidad", haciendo afirmaciones sin pruebas y basadas en especulaciones. [70]
El gobierno chino ha negado que la transferencia forzosa de propiedad intelectual sea una práctica obligatoria y reconoció el impacto de la I + D nacional realizada en China. [71] El exsecretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, Larry Summers, evaluó que el liderazgo chino en algunos campos tecnológicos era el resultado de una "enorme inversión gubernamental en ciencia básica" y no del "robo" de propiedades estadounidenses. [72] En marzo de 2019, el Congreso Nacional del Pueblo aprobó un nuevo proyecto de ley de inversión extranjera, que entrará en vigor en 2020, que prohíbe explícitamente la transferencia forzosa de propiedad intelectual de empresas extranjeras y otorga una mayor protección a la propiedad intelectual extranjera y los secretos comerciales. China también había planeado levantar las restricciones a la inversión extranjera en la industria automotriz en 2022. El presidente del comité de política de AmCham China , Lester Ross, criticó el proyecto de ley, diciendo que el texto del proyecto de ley era "apresurado" y "amplio", y también criticó una parte de la ley. proyecto de ley que otorgó al país el poder de tomar represalias contra países que imponen restricciones a las empresas chinas. [73] [74] [75]
Cronología
2018
- 22 de enero: Trump anunció aranceles sobre paneles solares y lavadoras . [78] Aproximadamente el 8% de las importaciones estadounidenses de paneles solares en 2017 provinieron de China. [79] Las importaciones de lavadoras residenciales de China ascendieron a alrededor de 1.100 millones de dólares en 2015. [80]
- 1 de marzo: Trump anunció aranceles sobre el acero y el aluminio sobre las importaciones de todos los países. [81] Estados Unidos había importado alrededor del 3 por ciento de su acero de China. [82] El anuncio provocó críticas del consejo editorial de The Wall Street Journal , que calificó la orden ejecutiva como "el mayor error político de su presidencia". [83]
- 22 de marzo: Trump pidió al representante comercial de Estados Unidos (USTR) que investigara la aplicación de aranceles a productos chinos por valor de entre 50 y 60 mil millones de dólares. [84] [85] [86] Se basó en la Sección 301 de la Ley de Comercio de 1974 para hacerlo, indicando que las tarifas propuestas eran "una respuesta a las prácticas comerciales desleales de China en los años", incluyendo el robo de US intelectual propiedad . [87] [84] Se enumeraron más de 1.300 categorías de importaciones chinas para los aranceles, incluidas piezas de aviones, baterías, televisores de pantalla plana, dispositivos médicos, satélites y diversas armas. [88] [89]
- 2 de abril: el Ministerio de Comercio de China respondió imponiendo aranceles a 128 productos que importa de Estados Unidos, incluidos aluminio, aviones, automóviles, carne de cerdo y soja (que tienen un arancel del 25%), así como frutas, nueces y tuberías de acero. (15%). [90] [91] [92] El secretario de Comercio de EE . UU., Wilbur Ross, dijo que los aranceles chinos planificados solo reflejaban el 0,3% del producto interno bruto de EE. UU. , Y la secretaria de prensa, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, declaró que las medidas tendrían "dolor a corto plazo" pero traerían "éxito a largo plazo". [40] [41] [93] [94]
- 3 de abril: la oficina del Representante Comercial de EE. UU. Publicó una lista inicial de más de 1300 productos chinos sobre los que imponer gravámenes, incluidos productos como televisores de pantalla plana, armas, satélites, dispositivos médicos, piezas de aviones y baterías. [95] [96] [97] El embajador de China, Cui Tiankai, respondió advirtiendo a los Estados Unidos que podrían contraatacar, diciendo: "Hemos hecho todo lo posible para evitar este tipo de situación, pero si la otra parte toma la decisión equivocada, entonces no tengo otra alternativa que luchar ". [98]
- 4 de abril: la Comisión de Aranceles Aduaneros de China del Consejo de Estado decidió anunciar un plan de aranceles adicionales del 25% sobre 106 artículos, incluidos automóviles, aviones y soja. [99] La soja es la principal exportación agrícola de Estados Unidos a China. [100] [101]
- 5 de abril: Trump dijo que estaba considerando otra ronda de aranceles sobre $ 100 mil millones adicionales de importaciones chinas mientras Beijing toma represalias. [102] Al día siguiente, la Organización Mundial del Comercio recibió una solicitud de China para realizar consultas sobre los nuevos aranceles estadounidenses. [103]
- 9 de mayo: China canceló los pedidos de soja exportados de Estados Unidos a China. Zhang Xiaoping, director chino del Consejo de Exportación de Soja de EE. UU., Dijo que los compradores chinos simplemente dejaron de comprar en EE . UU. [104]
- 15 de mayo: el viceprimer ministro y miembro del Politburó, Liu He , principal asesor económico del presidente de China y del secretario general Xi Jinping , visitó Washington para continuar las conversaciones comerciales. [86] [105]
- 20 de mayo: los funcionarios chinos acordaron "reducir sustancialmente" el déficit comercial de Estados Unidos con China [105] comprometiéndose a "aumentar significativamente" sus compras de productos estadounidenses. Como resultado, el secretario del Tesoro, Steven Mnuchin, anunció que "Estamos paralizando la guerra comercial". [106] Sin embargo, el director del Consejo Nacional de Comercio de la Casa Blanca , Peter Navarro , dijo que no había una "guerra comercial", sino que era una "disputa comercial, justa y simple. Perdimos la guerra comercial hace mucho tiempo". [107]
- 21 de mayo: Trump tuiteó que "China acordó comprar cantidades masivas de productos agrícolas / agrícolas ADICIONALES", aunque luego aclaró que las compras estaban supeditadas al cierre de un "acuerdo potencial". [108]
- 29 de mayo: La Casa Blanca anunció que impondría un arancel del 25% sobre productos chinos por valor de 50.000 millones de dólares con "tecnología de importancia industrial"; la lista completa de productos afectados se anunciará a más tardar el 15 de junio. [109] También prevé imponer restricciones a la inversión y controles mejorados de exportación a determinadas personas y organizaciones chinas para evitar que adquieran tecnología estadounidense. [110] China dijo que suspendería las conversaciones comerciales con Washington si imponía sanciones comerciales ". [111]
- 15 de junio: Trump declaró que Estados Unidos impondría un arancel del 25% sobre 50.000 millones de dólares de exportaciones chinas. $ 34 mil millones comenzarían el 6 de julio de 2018, y otros $ 16 mil millones comenzarían en una fecha posterior. [112] [113] [114] El Ministerio de Comercio de China acusó a Estados Unidos de iniciar una guerra comercial y dijo que China respondería de la misma manera con aranceles similares para las importaciones estadounidenses, a partir del 6 de julio. [115] Tres días después, la Casa Blanca declaró que Estados Unidos impondría aranceles adicionales del 10% sobre otros $ 200 mil millones en importaciones chinas si China tomaba represalias contra estos aranceles estadounidenses. [86] La lista de productos incluidos en esta ronda de aranceles se publicó el 11 de julio de 2018 y estaba previsto que se implementara en un plazo de 60 días. [ cita requerida ]
- 19 de junio: China toma represalias, amenazando con sus propios aranceles sobre productos estadounidenses por valor de 50.000 millones de dólares y afirmando que Estados Unidos había iniciado una guerra comercial. Los mercados de importación y exportación de varios países temían que los aranceles interrumpieran las cadenas de suministro, lo que podría "afectar a todo el mundo". [116]
- 6 de julio: Entraron en vigor los aranceles estadounidenses sobre productos chinos por valor de 34.000 millones de dólares. China impuso aranceles de represalia a productos estadounidenses de valor similar. Los aranceles representaron el 0,1% del producto interno bruto mundial . [117] [118] El 10 de julio de 2018, EE. UU. Publicó una lista inicial de los $ 200 mil millones adicionales de productos chinos que estarían sujetos a un arancel del 10%. [119] Dos días después, China prometió tomar represalias con aranceles adicionales sobre productos estadounidenses por valor de 60.000 millones de dólares anuales. [120]
- 8 de agosto: la Oficina del Representante Comercial de los Estados Unidos publicó su lista finalizada de 279 productos chinos, por valor de 16.000 millones de dólares, que estarán sujetos a un arancel del 25% a partir del 23 de agosto. [86] [121] [122] En respuesta, China impuso Aranceles del 25% sobre importaciones de Estados Unidos por valor de 16.000 millones de dólares, que se implementó en paralelo con los aranceles estadounidenses el 23 de agosto. [123]
- 14 de agosto: China presentó una queja ante la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) , afirmando que los aranceles estadounidenses sobre paneles solares extranjeros chocan con la decisión de la OMC y han desestabilizado el mercado internacional de productos solares fotovoltaicos. China declaró que el impacto resultante perjudicaba directamente los intereses comerciales legítimos de China. Peng Peng, investigador de la Asociación de la Industria de Energía Renovable de China, dijo que el problema solar ha existido durante años y pensó que China decidió plantearlo para mantener el ritmo de la disputa comercial. [124]
- 22 de agosto: el subsecretario del Tesoro de Estados Unidos, David Malpass, y el viceministro de Comercio de China, Wang Shouwen, se reunieron en Washington, DC en un intento por reabrir las negociaciones. Mientras tanto, el 23 de agosto de 2018 entraron en vigor los aranceles prometidos por Estados Unidos y China sobre bienes por valor de 16.000 millones de dólares, [125] y el 27 de agosto de 2018, China presentó una nueva queja ante la OMC contra Estados Unidos con respecto a los aranceles adicionales. [126]
- 17 de septiembre: Estados Unidos anunció que su arancel del 10% sobre productos chinos por valor de $ 200 mil millones comenzaría el 24 de septiembre de 2018, aumentando al 25% a finales de año. También amenazaron con aplicar aranceles sobre importaciones adicionales por valor de 267.000 millones de dólares si China toma represalias, [127] lo que China hizo rápidamente el 18 de septiembre con aranceles del 10% sobre importaciones estadounidenses de 60.000 millones de dólares. [128] [129] Hasta ahora, China ha impuesto o propuesto aranceles sobre $ 110 mil millones de productos estadounidenses, que representan la mayoría de sus importaciones de productos estadounidenses. [127]
- 10 de noviembre: el director del Consejo Nacional de Comercio de la Casa Blanca , Peter Navarro, alegó que un grupo de multimillonarios de Wall Street está llevando a cabo una operación de influencia en nombre del gobierno chino debilitando al presidente y la posición negociadora de Estados Unidos, y los instó a invertir en el cinturón de óxido. [130] [131]
- 30 de noviembre: el presidente Trump firmó el Acuerdo revisado entre Estados Unidos, México y Canadá en Buenos Aires , Argentina . El USMCA contiene una disposición de "reglas de origen" para los automóviles que fue "promocionada por la administración Trump como una herramienta para evitar los insumos chinos y alentar la producción y la inversión en los Estados Unidos y América del Norte". [132]
- 1 de diciembre: Se posponen los aumentos de tarifas previstos. La Casa Blanca declaró que ambas partes "comenzarán inmediatamente negociaciones sobre cambios estructurales con respecto a la transferencia forzada de tecnología, protección de la propiedad intelectual, barreras no arancelarias, intrusiones cibernéticas y robo cibernético". [133] [134] Según la Administración Trump, "si al final de [90 días], las partes no pueden llegar a un acuerdo, los aranceles del 10 por ciento se elevarán al 25 por ciento". [135] [136] La oficina del representante comercial de los Estados Unidos confirmó que el plazo estricto para los cambios estructurales de China es el 1 de marzo de 2019. [137] [138]
- 4 de diciembre: el presidente de la Fed de Nueva York , John Williams, dijo que creía que la economía estadounidense se mantendría fuerte en 2019. [139] Williams espera que sean necesarios aumentos en las tasas de interés para mantener la economía. Dijo: "Dada esta perspectiva de fuerte crecimiento, fuerte mercado laboral e inflación cerca de nuestro objetivo y teniendo en cuenta todos los diversos riesgos en torno a la perspectiva, espero que aumentos graduales adicionales en las tasas de interés patrocinen mejor una expansión económica sostenida". [139]
- 11 de diciembre: Trump anunció que China estaba comprando una "enorme cantidad" de soja estadounidense. Los comerciantes de materias primas no vieron evidencia de tales compras, y durante los siguientes seis meses las exportaciones de soja a China fueron aproximadamente una cuarta parte de lo que eran en 2017, antes de que comenzara el conflicto comercial. [140] Según se informa, China consideraba que las compras de productos agrícolas estadounidenses estaban supeditadas al cierre de un acuerdo comercial global. [141]
2019
- 14 de enero: un artículo en The Wall Street Journal informa que en 2018 el superávit comercial de China con Estados Unidos fue un récord de $ 323,32 mil millones a pesar de los aranceles de Trump. [142]
- 6 de marzo: el Departamento de Comercio de los Estados Unidos declaró que en 2018 el déficit comercial de los Estados Unidos con China alcanzó los 621.000 millones de dólares, el más alto desde 2008. [143]
- 5 de mayo: Trump declaró que los aranceles anteriores del 10% recaudados en productos chinos por valor de $ 200 mil millones se elevarían al 25% el 10 de mayo. [144] Con notificación del USTR, el Registro Federal el 9 de mayo publicó la modificación del arancel en o después de las 12:01 am, zona horaria del este, del 10 al 25% de mayo para los productos de China cubiertos por la acción de septiembre de 2018. [145] La razón declarada es que China incumplió los acuerdos ya acordados. [146]
- 9 de mayo: Trump dijo que los aranceles "los paga principalmente China, por cierto, no nosotros". Los analistas económicos concluyeron que esta era una afirmación incorrecta, ya que las empresas y los consumidores estadounidenses finalmente pagan las tarifas, ya que los ejemplos del mundo real de tarifas que funcionan según lo previsto son raros, y los consumidores del país que aplica las tarifas son las principales víctimas de las tarifas, al tener que pagar más. precios. "Es inexacto decir que los países pagan aranceles sobre bienes comerciales y de consumo, son los compradores y vendedores los que cargan con los costos", dijo Ross Burkhart, politólogo de la Universidad Estatal de Boise . "Los compradores pagan la tarifa cuando compran productos populares. Los vendedores pierden participación de mercado cuando sus productos salen de los mercados", agregó Burkhart. [147] [148] [149]
- 15 DE MAYO: Trump firmó la orden ejecutiva 13873, la colocación de Huawei en el Departamento de Comercio de lista de entidades . Según Reuters, la medida prohibió a Huawei comprar piezas y componentes vitales de empresas estadounidenses sin una aprobación especial y prohibió efectivamente su equipo de las redes de telecomunicaciones estadounidenses por motivos de seguridad nacional. [150] [151]
- 1 de junio: China aumentará los aranceles sobre bienes estadounidenses por valor de 60.000 millones de dólares. [152]
- 29 de junio: durante la cumbre del G20 en Osaka , Trump anuncia que él y Xi Jinping acordaron una "tregua" en la guerra comercial después de extensas conversaciones. Los aranceles anteriores permanecerán en vigor, pero no se promulgarán aranceles futuros "por el momento" en medio de negociaciones reiniciadas. Además, Trump dijo que permitiría a las empresas estadounidenses vender sus productos a Huawei , pero la empresa permanecería en la Lista de entidades de EE . UU . [153] Sin embargo, el alcance de la implementación de este plan para eximir temporalmente a Huawei de prohibiciones anteriores se volvió poco claro y, en las semanas posteriores, no hubo indicios claros de la revocación de las prohibiciones de Huawei. [154] [155]
- 29 de junio: Después de una reunión con el líder chino Xi Jinping , Trump anuncia que "China va a comprar una enorme cantidad de alimentos y productos agrícolas, y comenzarán a hacerlo muy pronto, casi de inmediato". [156] China impugnó haber asumido ese compromiso y un mes después no se habían materializado tales compras. [141] [157]
- 11 de julio: Trump tuiteó "China nos está decepcionando porque no han estado comprando los productos agrícolas de nuestros grandes agricultores que dijeron que comprarían". Personas familiarizadas con las negociaciones comerciales dijeron que China no se había comprometido en firme a comprar productos agrícolas a menos que fuera parte de un acuerdo comercial integral. [141]
- 15 de julio: las cifras oficiales de China mostraron que el crecimiento del PIB del segundo trimestre fue el más lento en 27 años. [158]
- 17 de julio: China anunció una disminución acelerada en las tenencias de las tenencias del tesoro de EE. UU. , Apuntando al 25% de sus tenencias actuales de $ 1,1 billones. [159]
- 1 de agosto: Trump anunció en Twitter que se aplicará un arancel adicional del 10% a los "$ 300 mil millones restantes en bienes". [160]
- 5 de agosto: el banco central de China ( BPC ) permitió que el renminbi cayera más del 2% en tres días hasta el punto más bajo desde 2008, ya que se vio afectado por fuertes ventas debido a la amenaza de aranceles. [161]
- 5 de agosto: El Departamento del Tesoro de EE. UU. Declaró oficialmente a China como un manipulador de divisas después de que el Banco Popular de China permitió que su yuan se depreciara, lo que, según CNN, fue visto como una represalia al anuncio de aranceles del 1 de agosto de Trump. [162] Según un artículo del Washington Post, Trump presuntamente presionó al Departamento del Tesoro, Steven Mnuchin, para que autorizara la designación. Tanto el FMI como el gobierno chino rechazaron la designación, y el FMI dijo que la valoración del yuan está en línea con los fundamentos económicos de China. [161] [163]
- 5 de agosto: China ordenó a las empresas estatales que dejaran de comprar productos agrícolas estadounidenses en represalia al anuncio de aranceles de Trump del 1 de agosto. [164] Zippy Duvall, presidente de la Federación de la Oficina Agrícola Estadounidense , calificó la medida como "un golpe al cuerpo para miles de agricultores y ganaderos que ya están luchando por sobrevivir", y agregó: "Los economistas de la Oficina Agrícola nos dicen que las exportaciones a China se redujeron en 1.300 millones de dólares durante la primera mitad del año. Ahora, podemos perder todo lo que era un mercado de 9.100 millones de dólares en 2018, lo que representa una fuerte caída en comparación con los 19.500 millones de dólares que los agricultores estadounidenses exportaron a China en 2017 ". [165]
- 13 de agosto: las cifras oficiales de China mostraron que el crecimiento de su producción industrial cayó en medio de la guerra comercial a un mínimo de 17 años. [166]
- 13 de agosto: Trump retrasó algunas de las tarifas. El valor de $ 112 mil millones todavía tendrá lugar el 1 de septiembre (lo que significa que el 1 de septiembre, $ 362 mil millones de valor total, incluidos los $ 112 mil millones de productos chinos recientemente impuestos, se enfrentarán a un arancel), pero los $ 160 mil millones adicionales, aún no impuestos no entrará en vigor hasta el 15 de diciembre. [167] Trump y sus asesores Peter Navarro, Wilbur Ross y Larry Kudlow dijeron que las tarifas se pospusieron para evitar dañar a los consumidores estadounidenses durante la temporada de compras navideñas. [168]
- 23 de agosto: el Ministerio de Finanzas de China anunció nuevas rondas de aranceles de represalia sobre bienes estadounidenses por valor de 75.000 millones de dólares, que entrarán en vigor a partir del 1 de septiembre. [169]
- 23 de agosto: Trump tuiteó que "por la presente ordenó" a las empresas estadounidenses "comenzar inmediatamente a buscar una alternativa a China". Según un artículo de The New York Times , los ayudantes de Trump dijeron que no se había redactado ninguna orden ni estaba claro que se haría. En un tweet al día siguiente, Trump dijo que tenía la autoridad para cumplir con su amenaza, citando la Ley de poderes económicos de emergencia internacional de 1977. [170] Además, los aranceles se elevarán del 25% al 30% en el bienes chinos existentes por valor de $ 250 mil millones a partir del 1 de octubre de 2019, y del 10% al 15% sobre los restantes $ 300 mil millones en bienes a partir del 15 de diciembre de 2019. [171]
- 26 de agosto: En la cumbre del G7 , Trump declaró: "China llamó anoche a nuestros principales comerciantes y dijo 'volvamos a la mesa', así que volveremos a la mesa y creo que quieren hacer algo. Tienen han sido muy lastimados, pero entienden que esto es lo correcto y tengo un gran respeto por ello ". [172] El portavoz del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de China, Geng Shuang, dijo que no estaba al tanto de tal llamada [173] y los asesores de Trump dijeron más tarde que la llamada no se produjo, pero que el presidente estaba tratando de proyectar optimismo. [174]
- 28 de agosto: Americans for Free Trade, un grupo que agrupa a 161 asociaciones comerciales en numerosas industrias, [175] envió a Trump una carta pidiéndole que pospusiera todos los aumentos arancelarios programados. [176] Al día siguiente, Trump dijo que "las empresas débiles y mal administradas están culpando inteligentemente a estos pequeños aranceles en lugar de a sí mismos por la mala gestión". [177]
- 1 de septiembre: Los nuevos aranceles de EE. UU. Y China anunciados previamente entraron en vigencia a las 12:01 pm EST. China impuso aranceles del 5% al 10% sobre un tercio de los 5.078 bienes que importa de Estados Unidos, y los aranceles sobre el resto están programados para el 15 de diciembre. [178] Estados Unidos impuso nuevos aranceles del 15% sobre aproximadamente 112.000 millones de dólares de importaciones chinas. de modo que más de dos tercios de los bienes de consumo importados de China estaban sujetos a aranceles. [179]
- 4 de septiembre: la Oficina del Representante de Comercio de Estados Unidos y los medios de comunicación estatales chinos confirmaron que las reuniones de nivel adjunto a mediados de septiembre conducirían a conversaciones a nivel ministerial en las próximas semanas. [180] [181] Al mismo tiempo, el Departamento de Comercio de los Estados Unidos emitió determinaciones preliminares de derechos antidumping sobre acero estructural fabricado de Canadá, China y México. Además, se determinó que China era responsable de verter hasta el 141,38% del acero estructural fabricado en los Estados Unidos y, por lo tanto, llevó a la Oficina de Aduanas y Protección Fronteriza de los Estados Unidos a cobrar depósitos en efectivo a la misma tasa, según las instrucciones del Departamento de Comercio. [182]
- 6 de septiembre: el Banco Popular de China anuncia una reducción del 0,5 por ciento en su coeficiente de reservas obligatorias en respuesta a la desaceleración de las tasas de crecimiento económico de China provocada por la guerra comercial. [183]
- 11 de septiembre: después de que China anunciara que eximiría a 16 tipos de productos estadounidenses de los aranceles durante un año, Trump anunció que retrasaría hasta el 15 de octubre un aumento arancelario sobre los productos chinos programado previamente para el 1 de octubre. Trump afirmó que concedió la demora a pedido de los chinos. viceprimer ministro Liu He . [184] [185]
- 12 de septiembre: Bloomberg News y Politico informaron que los asesores de Trump estaban cada vez más preocupados porque la guerra comercial estaba debilitando la economía estadounidense antes de la campaña electoral de 2020 y estaban discutiendo formas de llegar a un acuerdo interino limitado. [186] [187] El Wall Street Journal informó que China buscaba reducir el alcance de las negociaciones para colocar los asuntos de seguridad nacional en una vía separada de los asuntos comerciales. [188]
- 26 de septiembre: The Wall Street Journal informó que los aranceles de represalia chinos sobre la madera y los productos de madera habían provocado que las exportaciones de madera de frondosas a China cayeran un 40% durante 2019, lo que provocó que los aserraderos estadounidenses redujeran drásticamente el empleo. [189] Un portavoz del USDA dijo que la organización había proporcionado a la industria $ 5 millones en ayuda a través de su Programa de Promoción del Comercio Agrícola. [190]
- 7 de octubre: citando cuestiones de derechos humanos, el Departamento de Comercio de los Estados Unidos incluye 20 oficinas de seguridad pública chinas y ocho empresas de alta tecnología , como HikVision , SenseTime y Megvii , en la Lista de entidades de reglamentación de la administración de exportaciones . Al igual que Huawei , que fue sancionado con un modelo idéntico por razones de seguridad nacional , las entidades necesitarán la aprobación del gobierno de EE. UU. Antes de poder comprar componentes de empresas estadounidenses. [191]
- 11 de octubre: Trump anunció que Estados Unidos y China habían llegado a un acuerdo tentativo para la "primera fase" de un acuerdo comercial, y China acordó comprar hasta $ 50 mil millones en productos agrícolas estadounidenses y aceptar más servicios financieros estadounidenses en su mercado, y Estados Unidos acordó suspender los nuevos aranceles programados para el 15 de octubre. Se esperaba que el acuerdo se finalizara en las próximas semanas. [192] [193] Al mismo tiempo, los anuncios chinos no expresaron la misma confianza, [194] aunque unos días después el Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores chino dijo que las dos partes tenían el mismo entendimiento y habían llegado a un acuerdo. [195]
- 17 de octubre: Las cifras oficiales de China mostraron su crecimiento del PIB en el tercer trimestre en su nivel más lento en casi 30 años. [196]
- 13 de diciembre: Ambos países anuncian un acuerdo inicial en el que no se implementarán los nuevos aranceles que se impondrán mutuamente el 15 de diciembre. China dice que "aumentará las compras de productos agrícolas de alta calidad de Estados Unidos", mientras que Estados Unidos dice que reducirá a la mitad los aranceles existentes del 15%. [197] [198] [199]
- 31 de diciembre: The Wall Street Journal informó que se esperaba que el lenguaje del acuerdo de la fase uno se publicara después de la firma del 15 de enero, y que Lighthizer dijo que algunos detalles serían clasificados. [200]
2020
- 3 de enero: Reuters informó que en diciembre de 2019 el sector manufacturero estadounidense cayó en su depresión más profunda en más de una década, atribuyendo el declive a la guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China. [201]
- 15 de enero: el presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump, y el viceprimer ministro de China, Liu He, firmaron el acuerdo comercial de fase uno entre Estados Unidos y China en Washington DC. [202] [203] El "Acuerdo Económico y Comercial entre los Estados Unidos de América y la República Popular de China" entrará en vigor el 14 de febrero de 2020 y se centra en los derechos de propiedad intelectual (Capítulo 1), la transferencia de tecnología (Capítulo 2), productos alimenticios y agrícolas (Capítulo 3), servicios financieros (Capítulo 4), cuestiones de tipo de cambio y transparencia (Capítulo 5), y expansión del comercio (Capítulo 6), con referencia también a los procedimientos de evaluación bilateral y resolución de disputas en Capítulo 7. [204] El acuerdo permite que una parte solicite consultas adicionales en caso de un "desastre natural u otro evento imprevisible". [205] [206] [207] A diferencia de otros acuerdos comerciales, el acuerdo de fase uno entre Estados Unidos y China no se basó en el arbitraje a través de una organización intergubernamental como la Organización Mundial del Comercio, sino a través de un mecanismo bilateral. [208] [209]
- 17 de enero: las cifras oficiales de China mostraron que su tasa de crecimiento económico de 2019 cayó en medio de la guerra comercial a un mínimo de 30 años. [210] [211]
- 5 de febrero: Los datos del Departamento de Comercio de los Estados Unidos mostraron que el déficit comercial del país cayó en medio de la guerra comercial por primera vez en 6 años. [212]
- 17 de febrero: China otorga exenciones arancelarias sobre 696 productos estadounidenses para respaldar las compras. [213]
- 5 de marzo: El Representante Comercial de Estados Unidos otorgó exenciones a los aranceles sobre varios tipos de equipos médicos, luego de los llamados de legisladores estadounidenses y otros para eliminar los aranceles sobre estos productos a la luz de la pandemia de COVID-19 en Estados Unidos . [214] [215]
- 12 de mayo: el gobierno chino anunció exenciones de aranceles sobre 79 productos estadounidenses adicionales. [216]
- 14 de mayo: el gobierno chino anunció que permitiría las importaciones de cebada y arándanos de Estados Unidos. [217]
- En junio, China se había convertido nuevamente en el principal socio comercial de Estados Unidos, en medio de la crisis global causada por la pandemia de COVID-19 . Sin embargo, los países no estaban en camino de cumplir los objetivos del acuerdo comercial, lo que habría sido un desafío incluso en condiciones económicas fuertes, según Chad Brown del Instituto Peterson de Economía Internacional y Chenjun Pan de Rabobank . El daño económico y las barreras al comercio causadas por la pandemia hicieron que esos objetivos fueran aún más difíciles de alcanzar. [216] [218]
- 15 de septiembre: un panel de la OMC de tres personas descubrió que los aranceles de la administración Trump violaban las reglas del comercio mundial porque se habían aplicado solo a China y excedían las tarifas máximas que Estados Unidos había acordado, sin una explicación adecuada. Lighthizer respondió que el hallazgo mostraba que "la OMC es completamente inadecuada para detener las prácticas tecnológicas nocivas de China". [219]
- 26 de septiembre: El Departamento de Comercio de Estados Unidos impuso restricciones al mayor fabricante de chips de China, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), determinando que un equipo de "riesgo inaceptable" suministrado a SMIC podría potencialmente usarse con fines militares. Bajo las restricciones, se prohibió a los proveedores exportar el chip sin una licencia. [220]
- 8 de noviembre: el presidente Donald Trump firmó una orden ejecutiva que prohíbe a los estadounidenses invertir en acciones de empresas vinculadas al ejército chino . Las nuevas transacciones se prohibirían a partir del 11 de enero de 2021, mientras que los inversores que ya tuvieran dichas acciones tendrían hasta noviembre de 2021 para venderlas. [221] [222] El 6 de enero de 2021, la Bolsa de Valores de Nueva York anunció que eliminaría de la lista las acciones relacionadas con China Mobile , China Telecom y China Unicom . [223] [224] Índice proveedor de MSCI también anunció que dejaría incluyendo China Mobile, China Telecom y China Unicom en sus puntos de referencia. [225] [226]
- A fines de 2020, China y EE. UU. Habían logrado solo el 58% de los objetivos de exportaciones estadounidenses a China en el marco de la fase uno del acuerdo comercial. Esto se vio como una señal de que los objetivos originales no eran realistas. [227] [228] El Instituto Peterson de Economía Internacional, con sede en Estados Unidos, dijo que "gran parte del acuerdo fue un fracaso". [228]
2021
- 13 de enero: la administración Trump prohibió los productos de algodón y tomate originarios de Xinjiang , incluidos los productos fabricados fuera de China pero que utilizan algodón y tomates de Xinjiang, por acusaciones de trabajo forzoso . [229]
- 20 de enero: Trump dejó el cargo y Joe Biden asumió como presidente de los Estados Unidos . Biden dijo que no tenía planes inmediatos para eliminar los aranceles y planeaba revisar el acuerdo comercial de la fase uno y discutir el asunto con los aliados primero. [228]
- 22 de febrero: el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de China, Wang Yi, pidió al presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, que levante las múltiples restricciones impuestas por Trump. Durante un foro del Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores sobre las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y China, instó a la administración Biden a levantar las sanciones sobre el comercio y el contacto entre personas, al tiempo que le pidió que dejara de interferir en los asuntos internos de China. [230]
- 18-19 de marzo: se llevaron a cabo conversaciones de alto nivel en Anchorage, Alaska, para discutir desacuerdos geopolíticos clave. [231] [232]
Efectos
En abril de 2018, China anunció que eliminaría las leyes que exigían que los fabricantes de automóviles y los constructores navales mundiales trabajaran a través de socios estatales. [233] El presidente de China y el secretario general Xi Jinping reiteró esos compromisos, [234] afirmando el deseo de aumentar las importaciones, reducir los límites de propiedad extranjera en la fabricación y ampliar la protección a la propiedad intelectual, todos temas centrales en las quejas de Trump sobre su desequilibrio comercial. [235] Trump agradeció a Xi por sus "amables palabras sobre aranceles y barreras automotrices" y "su ilustración" sobre propiedad intelectual y transferencias de tecnología. "¡Haremos un gran progreso juntos!" añadió el presidente. [235]
By early July 2018, there were negative and positive results already showing up in the economy as a result of the tariffs, as a number of industries showed employment growth while others were planning on layoffs.[236] Regional commentators noted that consumer products were the most likely to be affected by the tariffs. A timeline of when costs would rise was uncertain as companies had to figure out if they could sustain a tariff hike without passing on the costs to consumers.[237]
American farmers have been particularly severely affected by China's retaliatory trade actions.[218] In response, the Trump administration's aid relief for the difficulties faced by the farmers came in the form of cash payments, securing additional trade deals and modifying environmental regulations to benefit corn farmers.[238][239][240][241] According to the American Farm Bureau, agricultural exports from the US to China decreased from $24 billion in 2014 to $9.1 billion in 2018, including decreases in sales of pork, soybeans, and wheat. Farm bankruptcies have increased, and agricultural equipment manufacturer Deere & Company cut its profit forecast twice between January and August 2019.[239] An August 2019 USDA report showed that as American wheat exports to China dropped, Canadian wheat exports to China rose from 32% to more than 60%.[239][242] Farm equipment manufacturers were negatively affected by the reluctance of farmers to invest in new equipment, with sales dropping significantly during the first quarter of 2019.[243][239] Yet despite the negative effects, polls in July 2019 showed that most farmers continued to support Trump, as 78% of them said they believed the trade war will ultimately benefit U.S. agriculture.[244] The Government Accountability Office announced in February 2020 that it would examine the program, amid reports that aid was being improperly distributed.[245]
According to a study by the National Retail Federation of the United States, a 25% tariff on Chinese furniture alone would cost US consumers an additional $4.6 billion in annual payments.[246][247]
Analysis conducted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that China imposed uniform tariffs averaging 8% on all its importers in January 2018, before the trade war began. By June 2019, tariffs on American imports had increased to 20.7%, while tariffs on other nations declined to 6.7%.[248] The analysis also found that average American tariffs on Chinese goods increased from 3.1% in 2017 to 24.3% by August 2019.[249]
Economic growth has slowed worldwide amid the trade war.[250] The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report released in April 2019 lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2019 from 3.6% expected in 2018 to 3.3%, and said that economic and trade frictions may further curb global economic growth and continue weaken the investment.[251] According to Capital Economics, China's economic growth has slowed as a result of the trade war, though overall the Chinese economy "has held up well", and China's share of global exports has increased.[252][better source needed] U.S. economic growth has also slowed.[250]
Analysis by Goldman Sachs in May 2019 found that the consumer price index for nine categories of tariffed goods had increased dramatically, compared to a declining CPI for all other core goods.[253]
In August 2019, Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro asserted tariffs were not hurting Americans. Politifact rated Navarro's assertion "Pants on Fire."[254]
Surveys of consumer sentiment and small business confidence showed sharp declines in August 2019 on uncertainty caused by the trade war.[255][256] The closely followed Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed contraction in August, for the first time since January 2016; the ISM quoted several executives expressing anxiety about the continuing trade war, citing shrinking export orders and the challenges of shifting their supply chains out of China. The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index also showed contraction in August, for the first time since September 2009.[257] The day the ISM report was released, Trump tweeted, "China's Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!"[258][259]
Analysis conducted by Moody's Analytics estimated that through August 2019 300,000 American jobs had either been lost or not created due to the trade war, especially affecting manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and retail.[260]
By September 2019, American manufacturers were reducing their capital investments and delaying hiring due to uncertainty caused by the trade war.[261]
A November 2019 United Nations analysis reported that "the U.S. tariffs on China are economically hurting both countries".[262]
A November 2019 article in the Financial Times said that since August 2019 the trade war hit US manufacturers harder than China's.[263][needs update]
In December 2019, the South China Morning Post reported that, due to the trade war and the Chinese government's crackdown on shadow banking, Chinese manufacturing investments were expanding at the lowest rate since records began.[264]
The Wall Street Journal reported in February 2020 that the USTR was granting fewer tariff waivers to American firms, down from 35% of requests for the first two tranches of tariffs in 2018 to 3% for the third tranche in 2019.[265]
Overall effects on U.S. economy
Analysis published by The Wall Street Journal in October 2020 found the trade war did not achieve the primary objective of reviving American manufacturing, nor did it result in the reshoring of factory production. Though the trade war led to higher employment in certain industries, tariffs led to a net loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs. The trade war reduced the United States' trade deficit with China in 2019, but this trend reversed itself in 2020, with the trade deficit increasing back to its pre–trade war level, while the United States' overall trade deficit has increased.[266]
Stock market
Investor uncertainty due to the trade war has caused turbulence in the stock market.[267][268][269]
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 724 points, or 2.9%, after the tariffs were announced due to concerns over a trade war.[270] Corporations that traded with China, such as Caterpillar Inc.and Boeing, suffered large losses in their stock price.[271]
On December 4, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its worst day in nearly a month as it declined nearly 600 points, to which some argue is in part due to the trade war.[272] On December 26, the Dow Jones recorded a rise of 1000 points after, according to Reuters, the publication of a report that documented strong holiday sales, although the major indexes were still down more than 10% through the month of December 2018 amid the trade war.[273]
On August 14, 2019, the Dow dropped 800 points, partly caused by increasing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.[274] Nine days later, on August 23, the Dow dropped 623 points on the day that Trump informally ordered American companies to immediately seek alternatives to doing business in China.[275][276] By the end of 2019, stock markets reached record highs, having risen due to the agreement between the United States and China to sign the first phase of a trade deal.[277][278]
Domestic politics
Analysts speculated that the trade war could affect the 2020 United States presidential election, as tariffs have negatively affected farmers, an important constituency for Trump.[279][280] Analysts also speculated on how the trade war affected Xi Jinping in relation to the domestic pressures that he faced.[280]
Other countries
Globally, foreign direct investment has slowed.[281] The trade war has hurt the European economy, particularly Germany, even though trade relations between Germany and China and between Germany and the U.S. remain good.[282] Germany and the EU have had high levels of trade with China, and the German government and public want to maintain these trade ties.[283] The Canadian economy has seen negative effects as well.[284] Like the U.S., Britain, Germany, Japan, and South Korea were all showing "a weak manufacturing performance" as of 2019.[285] Several Asian governments have instituted stimulus measures to address damage from the trade war, though economists said this may not be effective.[286]
A trade group predicted that demand for semiconductor devices would decline by 12 per cent, as a direct result of the trade war.[287]
Some countries have benefited economically from the trade war, at least in some sectors, due to increasing exports to the United States and China to fill the gaps left by decreasing trade between these two economies. Beneficiaries include Vietnam, Chile, Malaysia, and Argentina.[288] Vietnam is the biggest beneficiary, with technology companies moving manufacturing there.[288][289] South Korea has also benefited from increased electronics exports, Malaysia from semiconductor exports, Mexico from motor vehicles, and Brazil from soybeans.[288] Trade diversion effects have also had an impact on countries in East and Southeast Asia with Taiwan getting the largest boost.[290] However, US-ASEAN Business Council CEO Alex Feldman warned that even these countries may not benefit long-term, saying that "It's in everyone's interest to see this spat get resolved and go back to normal trade relations between the US and China."[291] Several Taiwanese companies have been expanding production domestically, including Quanta Computer, Sercomm and Wistron, creating over 21,000 jobs.[292] This investment led to a significant strengthening of the New Taiwan Dollar which had not been expected pre-Trade War.[293] Nintendo has reportedly moved some Nintendo Switch production from China to Southeast Asia.[294]
The trade war has indirectly caused some companies to go bankrupt. One of them, Taiwanese LCD panel manufacturer Chunghwa Picture Tubes (CPT), went bankrupt as a result of an excess supply of panels and a subsequent collapse in prices, which was aided by vulnerability to the trade war (caused by overexpansion in China), a slowing Taiwanese and global economy and a slowdown in the electronics sector.[292][295]
Reacciones
Chinese domestic reactions
Mainland Chinese politicians and economists have been divided over the trade war.[296][297][298][299] An August 2019 article in NPR said that while some in the PRC leadership argued for a quick resolution to the trade war in order to save China's economy, others said that the country should push back against the United States and avoid an agreement at all costs.[296]
In July 2018, academic Xu Zhangrun said that the trade war revealed underlying weaknesses in the Chinese political system and criticized Chinese leader Xi Jinping for his "overweening pride" and "vanity politics."[298][299]
In August 2018, Hong Kong-based academic Willy Lam said that the trade war had galvanized all the previous misgivings which different countries in the West had toward China and undermined Chinese leader Xi Jinping's authority.[298][299] Zhang Baohui, a political science professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, similarly said that the trade war had been effective in challenging the myth of Chinese invincibility, saying that the tariffs "really hurt China at a very bad time, when the economy is experiencing serious trouble."[298]
Economist Sheng Hong, director of the defunct think tank Unirule Institute of Economics, said that it would be good if China yielded to America's request for fair trade, arguing that the "China model" of state capitalism was incompatible with its policies of market reforms and damaging China's economy.[297] Amidst the closure Unirule after Hong was accused of threatening of state security, Hong likened Beijing's inability to brook internal criticism to "riding in a car with a filthy windshield."[297]
A December 2018 journal article published by two Chinese academics said that in the worst-case scenario of the trade war, China would suffer a 1.1% decrease in employment and a 1% GDP loss, which they said were not negligible, but manageable for China.[24] Another paper published in February 2018 by Chinese academics similarly concluded that whereas the United States would experience large social welfare losses as a result of the trade war, China may lose or gain slightly depending on the effect of trade war on the U.S.–China trade balance.[22]
In September 2019, Lu Xiang, an analyst at the state-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressed pessimism about the outcome of upcoming talks, called Trump "unpredictable", and said, "We can only try to find sensible clues in his nonsense."[285]
Domestic reporting on the trade war is censored in China. While news outlets are permitted to report on the conflict, their coverage is subject to restrictions; the South China Morning Post said that employees for Chinese media were told not to "over-report" the trade war[300] while an article in The New York Times said that state news outlets had sought to promote the official line, with the authorities restricting the use of the phrase "trade war."[299] Social media posts about the conflict are subject to censorship as well.[301][302]
The trade war is a common subject on Chinese social media, with one popular Internet meme referencing Thanos, a villain from Marvel Comics and the Marvel Cinematic Universe who wipes out half of all life in the universe using the Infinity Gauntlet, joking that Trump will similarly wipe out half of China's investors.[303][304]
Hong Kong economics professor Lawrence J. Lau argues that a major cause of the trade war is the growing battle between China and the U.S. for global economic and technological dominance. He argues, "It is also a reflection of the rise of populism, isolationism, nationalism and protectionism almost everywhere in the world, including in the US."[305]
People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, has stated that China will be able to withstand the trade war, and that Trump's policies are affecting American consumers.[306]
United States domestic reactions
Congress
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer praised President Trump's higher tariffs against China's alleged taking advantage of the U.S. and said "Democrats, Republicans, Americans of every political ideology, every region in the country should support these actions." Other Democratic senators who supported Trump's actions include Bob Menendez, Sherrod Brown and Ron Wyden[307][308][309][310][311] Bipartisan support from the House of Representatives for Trump's actions came from Nancy Pelosi.[312][313][314] Brad Sherman,[315] Kevin Brady,[307] and Ted Yoho.[315] Democratic representative Tim Ryan, who has a lifetime 98 percent rating from the AFL-CIO, also supported the Trump tariffs saying, "What China has been doing is bullshit. They're cheating, they're subsidizing their product."[316] Senator Marco Rubio has also supported the tariffs, which he referred to as a "theft tax".[317]
Other Republican senators have given more divided statements. Mitch McConnell said that "nobody wins a trade war" but that there was hope the tactics would "get us into a better position, vis-à-vis China". John Cornyn said, "If this is what it takes to get a good deal, I think people will hang in there, but at some point we've got to get it resolved. If this goes on for a long time, everybody realizes it's playing with a live hand grenade."[318] Joni Ernst said in May 2019 that the "tariffs are hurtful" to farmers, but that they "do want us to find a path forward with China" and said, "We hope that we can get a deal soon".[319]
Other senators from both parties have criticized Trump for the trade war, including Charles E. Grassley,[320] Tim Kaine,[321] Mark Warner,[321] Elizabeth Warren,[322] and Ron Wyden.[21]
Agricultural
The Associated Press reported in 2018 that "Dave Warner, a spokesman for the National Pork Producers Council, said pork producers have already seen the value of their pigs fall after a previous Chinese tariff. Warner said pig producers will likely feel the effect of the new tariff, though it's not yet clear exactly how."[323]
Iowa soybean farmer and president of the American Soybean Association John Heisdorffer called the use of tariffs a "scorched-earth approach", warning that U.S. industries could permanently lose global market share as a result.[323][324]
The mayors of Davenport and St. Gabriel, which represented towns with a heavy reliance on the farming sector, expressed their concerns that the trade war would have on their cities.[323]
In August 2019, Roger Johnson of the National Farmers Union — representing about 200,000 family farmers, ranchers and fishers — stated that the trade war was creating problems for American farmers, specifically highlighting the fall in soybean exports from the U.S. to China.[325][better source needed] In the same month, the American Farm Bureau Federation — representing large agribusiness — said that the announcement of new tariffs "signals more trouble for American agriculture."[326]
Business
In September 2018, a business coalition announced a lobbying campaign called "Tariffs Hurt the Heartland" to protest the proposed tariffs;[327] the tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminum, and certain chemicals contributed to rising fertilizer and agricultural equipment costs in the United States.[328]
In February 2019, a survey released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that a majority of member U.S. companies supported increasing or maintaining tariffs on Chinese goods, and nearly twice as many respondents compared to the year before wanted the U.S. government to push Beijing harder to create a level playing field.[329][330] A further 19 percent of its companies said they were adjusting supply chains or seeking to source components and assembly outside of China as a result of tariffs and 28% were delaying or cancelling investment decisions in China.[329]
Over 600 companies and trade associations, including manufacturers, retailers, and tech companies, wrote to Trump in mid-2019 to ask him to remove tariffs and end the trade war, saying that increased tariffs would have "a significant, negative, and long-term impact on American businesses, farmers, families, and the US economy".[331]
On May 20, 2019, the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, an industry trade association for footwear, issued an open letter to President Trump, part of which read: "On behalf of our hundreds of millions of footwear consumers and hundreds of thousands of employees, we ask that you immediately stop this action", referring to the trade war.[332][333]
Americans for Free Trade, a coalition of over 160 business organizations, wrote a letter to Trump in August 2019 requesting that he postpone all tariff rate increases on Chinese goods, citing concerns about cost increases for U.S. manufacturers and farmers. The coalition includes the National Retail Federation, the Consumer Technology Association, Association of Equipment Manufacturers, the Toy Association and American Petroleum Institute, among others.[334]
In September 2019, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said that the trade war had "gone on far too long" and had harmful effects on American businesses and consumers. He urged the Trump administration to end the trade war and find an agreement to remove all the tariffs.[285]
Hun Quach, vice president of international trade for the Retail Industry Leaders Association has claimed that the tariffs will impact American family budgets by raising the prices of everyday items.[323][335][336]
Manufacturing
The CEOs of American steelmakers Nucor Corp, United States Steel Corp, ArcelorMittal SA and Commercial Metals Co have all supported Trump's steel tariffs against China[337][338] as has the United Steelworkers Union.[339][340][341][342][316] Scott Paul, president of the associated Alliance for American Manufacturing, has also supported tariffs,[323][343] and opposed proposals to reverse them in light of the coronavirus pandemic.[344] In 2019, he criticized the stagnation of trade talks saying "Trump would have ripped any Democrat for that outcome".[345]
James Hoffa Jr., president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, has been a proponent of U.S. tariffs against China[346] as has Richard Trumka, president of AFL-CIO.[316][347][348]
A 2019 statement by the National Association of Manufacturers stated their opposition to the trade war, calling for a new structure for the U.S.–China commercial relationship that would eliminate China's unfair trade practices and level the playing field for manufacturers in the United States.[349] A 2018 Politico article documented the close partnership between the president of NAM Jay Timmons and President Trump and said that Timmons was fighting against Trump's trade war from within.[350]
The vice president of the National Marine Manufacturers Association criticized the tariffs, saying they were "hurting American manufacturers."[327]
Economists and analysts
According to articles in Politifact, most mainstream economists said that "consumers are the primary victims of tariffs"[343] and most economists said that they carry "more risks than benefits".[351] Nearly all economists who responded to surveys conducted by the Associated Press and Reuters said that Trump's tariffs would do more harm than good to the economy of the United States,[7][8] and some economists advocated for alternate means for the United States to address its trade deficit with China.[6][9][10][11][12]
NYU Economics Professor Lawrence J. White has said that import tariffs are equivalent to a tax, and contribute to a higher cost of living.[343][351]
Economic analyst Zachary Karabell has argued that the administration's tariff-based approach would not work as it would not "reverse what has already been transferred and will not do much to address the challenge of China today, which is no longer a manufacturing neophyte" and also argued that the assertion that more rigorous intellectual property protections would "level the playing field" was problematic.[352] He recommended instead that the U.S. focus on its relative advantages of economic openness and a culture of independence.[352]
James Andrew Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that what the United States needed from China was a commitment to observes the rules and norms of international trade and to extend reciprocal treatment to U.S. companies in China.[353]
In an April 2018 article in Forbes, Harry G. Broadman, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said that while he agreed with the Trump administration's basic position that the Chinese did not abide by fair, transparent and market-based rules for global trade, he disagreed with its means of unilaterally employing tariffs and said that the administration should instead pursue a coalition-based approach.[354]
In a November 2018 testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, Jennifer Hillman, a professor of practice at Georgetown University Law School, said that United States "ought to be bringing a big and bold case, based on a coalition of countries working together to take on China."[355]
Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said that while it made sense for other countries to get more involved in confronting China, the problem was that they didn't know how serious Trump was on reforming the larger, systemic issues.[355]
Michael Wessel described plans to allow foreign companies a greater role in the Chinese technology program "an influence operation at its best" and also questioned whether changes in relevant Chinese laws would mean much so long as the courts remained under the control of the Communist Party.[355]
A May 2019 article written by Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center argued that the impact of the trade war would eliminate "most or all" of the benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for low- and middle-income households.[356][357]
Economists at financial firm Morgan Stanley expressed uncertainty about how the trade war would end, but warned in June 2019 that it could lead to a recession.[358]
Economist Panos Mourdoukoutas states that China's elites were fighting the trade war under the wrong assumption that China had reached "power parity" with the U.S. and that although an economic divorce between the two countries would have some consequences for the US, it would on the other hand be devastating for China.[359]
In November 2019, Jim Cramer said that unless China purchased a considerable amount of American goods as a way to prove the validity of the arguments proffered by the free-trade contingent in the Trump administration, the U.S.-China trade war would continue on for a significant period of time.[360]
After the first phase of a trade deal was agreed upon in December 2019, Mary E. Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and professor at Syracuse University said the ceasefire was "good news" for the American economy while expressing optimism that the talks would help address China's "unfair" intellectual property practices.[361][362]
Economist Paul Krugman said in September 2020 that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election, he should maintain a tough stance against China, but focus more on industrial policy than trade tariffs.[363]
Others
Minxin Pei, a scholar of Chinese politics at California's Claremont McKenna College, argued that Mr. Xi's ambition for China's revival as a worldpower had been revealed as hollow through the continuing trade dispute.[298]
The former Vice President Joe Biden said: "While Trump is pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war, without any real strategy, China is positioning itself to lead the world in renewable energy."[364]
An August 2019 Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found that 67% of registered voters wanted the U.S. to confront Beijing over its trade policies despite the fact that 74% said American consumers were shouldering most of the burden of tariffs. Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, said the poll showed strong support amongst the American public for Trump's trade policies against China, saying, "They realize that the tariffs may have negative impacts on jobs and prices, but they believe the fight here is the right one."[365]
Tariffs on medical supplies have become politically complicated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Wall Street Journal, citing Trade Data Monitor to show that China is the leading source of many key medical supplies, raised concerns that US tariffs on imports from China threaten imports of medical supplies into the United States.[366]
International
A September 2018 article by Brahma Chellaney said that America's trade war with China should not obscure a broader pushback against China's mercantilist trade, investment, and lending practices.[367]
At the 2018 G20 summit, the trade war was on the agenda for discussion.[368]
In December 2018 Jorge Guajardo, former Mexican ambassador to China, said in an article in the Washington Post that "One thing the Chinese have had to acknowledge is that it wasn't a Trump issue; it was a world issue. Everybody's tired of the way China games the trading system and makes promises that never amount to anything."[355]
A March 2019 Reuters article said that the European Union shared many of the Trump administration's same complaints with regards to China's technology transfer policies and market access constraints and also reported that European diplomats and officials acknowledged support for Trump's goals, even if they disagreed with his tactics.[330]
Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the trade war was negatively affecting Singapore and described it as "very worrying". He urged both the U.S. and Chinese governments to change their approaches.[369][370]
At the 45th G7 summit, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, "We don't like tariffs on the whole."[371] An article in ABC said that U.S. allies warned Trump during the summit about his trade war with China, but that Trump said he wasn't facing any pressure from his allies over the trade war.[371] European Council President Donald Tusk said the trade war risked causing a global recession.[372]
The Chilean vice minister for trade, Rodrigo Yanez, told CNBC that "It's very important for Chile that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is signed soon".[373]
In the wake of the 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, Indian commentators made references to the US-China trade war as part of their overall analysis of the effect that the skirmish would have on the future relations between India and China.[374][375][376][377][378][379][380]
Ver también
- Anti-American sentiment in China
- Anti-Chinese sentiment in the United States
- Chinese espionage in the United States
- CIA activities in China
- Congressional-Executive Commission on China
- Japan–South Korea trade dispute
- Protectionism in the United States
- Rare earths trade dispute
- Second Cold War
- Trump tariffs
- 2002 United States steel tariff
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But in a letter sent to Congress on Friday afternoon, Thomas M. Conway, the international president of the United Steelworkers Union, cautioned against removing tariffs on steel, saying that it would harm an industry that is already struggling as a result of auto plant closures and a general slowdown in manufacturing...Mr. Conway, whose group pressed for the tariffs initially, also argued that rolling back tariffs could advance China's interests. He cited research from Horizon Advisory, a firm that analyzes Chinese-language publications, speeches and other documents, which suggested that some Chinese strategists believe that emerging from the coronavirus first would give China an economic opportunity.
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WE ARE PRETTY SUPPORTIVE WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA BECAUSE I WOULD SAY THEY HAVE BEEN THE CHIEF COOK WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE VIOLATIONS. WE HAVE LOOKED AT THOSE AND SAID SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE. CURRENTLY MANIPULATION STILL NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED. THEN, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF 232'S YOU COULD PROBABLY DEAL WITH. RARE EARTH MAGNETS ARE USED IN THE GUIDANCE SYSTEM OF SHIPS, MISSILES AND PLANES ETC.. WE HAD ONE IN INDIANA AND ONE IN ILLINOIS. PRESIDENT BUSH GAVE THEM THE IDEA TO BUY PLANS. THEY HAVE A LITTLE OVER 90% OF THE WORLD SUPPLY OF RARE EARTH MAGNET BY THE CHINESE RIGHT NOW. DO YOU THINK THAT COULD POSSIBLY REPRESENT A THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY? THAT MIGHT BE A PLACE FOR WHERE 232 ACTION IS JUSTIFIABLE AND ACTUALLY WARRANTED. WHAT WE SAY IS WE LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL CASE AND YOU DON'T DO IT WITH A SHOTGUN, YOU DO IT WITH THE RIFLE. IF CHINA IS BY LIVING, WE OUGHT TO PUSH BACK. YOU TALKED ABOUT RULES OF ORIGIN . LET'S TAKE NAFTA. THEY SAID WE HAVE TO HAVE A 62.5% PRODUCT MADE IN A COMBINATION OF THE THREE COUNTRIES, BUT IF CHINA MADE 30% OF EVERY COMPONENT THAT THE MEXICANS OR THE U.S. OR CANADA PUTS INTO A CAR, THAT 30% GETS WASHED AND IT IS COUNTED AS WANTED TO PERCENT FOR MEXICO, SO THE REAL ONES WERE WASHED AWAY. WE NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. IF AN INDUSTRY IMPORTANT TO OUR ECONOMY AND NATIONAL SECURITY, EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD MAKES SURE THE INDUSTRY THRIVES. WE SHOULD DO THE SAME.
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And what about the farmers negatively affected by China's retaliatory tariffs, in what many observers call a trade war? Trumka urges a big-picture perspective. "When you go through this, you're going to come up with what's good for the country," Trumka says. "And sometimes what's good for the country may be bad for Joe or Jane in the short term, but in the long term, if it's good for the country, it's going to be good for everybody." "And if we get trade agreements that are fairly enforced, that farmer is going to get a fair shake," he continues. "They're going to be able to compete, because the rules are the same for everybody. And when the rules are the same, I believe the farmers in this country are going to do well and they're going to be able to compete worldwide."
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But while organizations like the National Retail Federation have publicly scolded Trump for a "reckless escalation," Timmons has taken a more diplomatic tack. "It's not the way I would negotiate it, but the last time I looked I wasn't elected president," Timmons said. "If this is a better way to encourage investment here in the United States, and create jobs and wage growth, we'll have to see."
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"We cannot follow the Americans. Even they had to do a deal with the Chinese," Dhar said, referring to the US Commerce Department allowing American firms to work with Chinese telecom major Huawei earlier this week, an issue that was one of main reasons for the trade war between US and China.
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The US and western powers have been very vocal in calling out Beijing in recent times. US-China relations have hit rock bottom, especially since Donald Trump took office. The US-China trade war is now taking a toll on the world system. For example, it is creating fissures among ASEAN members...I am not advocating for joining a US-lead platform as a devoted member. To push back against Chinese adventurism by deepening dependence on another power also runs counter to the very logic of protecting our national sovereignty. India today is strong enough to stand for her interest and yet must be adroit enough to find common ground with those with whom her interests align, whether to its West or East. China must be made to choose: Is it willing to push the equally proud, equally numerous, equally historical and glorious civilisation to the south in this long-term direction for a few square kilometres of territory and a round of chest-thumping?
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This has given India one lifetime opportunity to attract investments and companies away from China unto itself. Hence the Prime Minister's emphasis on 'Buy Local, Be Global' and Atmanirbhar Bharat, and to ultimately substitute China as the world's supplier. Unfortunately, it is not only cheap labour and improvement in the ease of doing business that will enable India to claim a substantial share of China's global business. We also need to understand that we are not the only player vying for the pie...Of the 56 companies that relocated their production bases from China in the aftermath of the US-China trade war of 2018- 19, only three came to India and the rest went to Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand. In contrast, it is only now that the Government is focusing on the long-overdue factor market reforms including the labour laws which have already run into a judicial stonewall.
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Otras lecturas
- Albuquerque, José Luiz, Antonio MArcelo Jackson Ferreira da Silva, and José Medeiros da Silva. "The China–US Trade War." Revista do Fórum Internacional de Ideias 9.1 (2019): 11+ online, a Brazilian perspective
- Boucher, Jean-Christophe, and Cameron G. Thies. "'I Am a Tariff Man': The Power of Populist Foreign Policy Rhetoric under President Trump." Journal of Politics 81.2 (2019): 712–722.
- Chong, Terence Tai Leung, and Xiaoyang Li. "Understanding the China–US trade war: causes, economic impact, and the worst-case scenario." Economic and Political Studies 7.2 (2019): 185–202. online, a historical perspective
- Crowley, Meredith A. (ed.), Trade War: The Clash of Economic Systems Endangering Global Prosperity (CEPR Press, 2019).
- Fenby, Jonathan, and Trey McArver. The Eagle and the Dragon: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and the Fate of US/China Relations (2019)
- Foot, Rosemary, and Amy King. "Assessing the deterioration in China–US relations: US governmental perspectives on the economic-security nexus." China International Strategy Review (2019): 1-12. online
- Lau, Lawrence J. The China–U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations (Hong Kong: The Chinese University of Hong Kong Press, 2019) online, a Hong Kong perspective
- Qiu, Larry D., Chaoqun Zhan, and Xing Wei. "An analysis of the China–US trade war through the lens of the trade literature." Economic and Political Studies 7.2 (2019): 148–168.
- Qiu, Larry D., and Xing Wei. "China–US trade: implications on conflicts." China Economic Journal (2019): 1-20.
enlaces externos
- Works related to The Facts and China's Position on China–US Trade Friction at Wikisource
- Works related to China's Position on the China-US Economic and Trade Consultations at Wikisource